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Microsoft Research

Lazare, veni foras: Reprogramming Dormant Neurons to Backdoor AI Agents

Microsoft researchers have discovered “Lazarus,” a backdoor technique that can reprogram dormant neurons in an AI model, causing an otherwise normal AI agent to execute malicious commands when a hidden trigger appears. The threat is especially serious for AI agents with tool or terminal access. A triggered model could quietly download and run attacker code, […] The post Lazare, veni…

arXiv AI Papers

Pyrite: Building and Benchmarking Protein-Ligand Pose Ranking Agents

Predicting how a ligand binds to its target is central to small-molecule drug discovery. Modern cofolding models can generate diverse candidate poses, but reliably ranking these candidates remains challenging. We introduce Pyrite, a pairwise pose-ranking benchmark comprising 1,500 pose pairs across diverse protein-ligand complexes. Expert chemists equipped with 3D visualization tools and physics-based scores perform near chance, highlighting the difficulty of interpreting available chemical signals. To investigate automated ranking, we introduce PyriteRep, a structured representation of molecular geometry, protein-ligand interactions, and physicochemical scores, and develop two LLM-based agents: PyriteReasoner, which directly compares poses through text-based reasoning, and PyriteFeaturizer, which generates executable code to construct features for logistic regression, optionally incorporating features derived from LLM subcalls. These agents achieve up to 67% and 74% accuracy, respectively, exceeding observed expert performance. LLM-guided feature discovery generally outperforms direct reasoning, while Group Relative Policy Optimization (GRPO) improves open-weight models, enabling them to match or surpass closed-source frontier models in our evaluations. These results establish Pyrite as a challenging test of pose-ranking ability and highlight LLM-guided feature discovery as a promising approach to interpret and combine the outputs of computational chemistry tools.

arXiv AI Papers

When Does the Real Wiring Win? Testing connectome structure-function claims against unmeasured physiology

Connectome-constrained models are often used to argue that a measured wiring diagram outperforms shuffled or rewired wiring, and hence that structure shapes function. Such comparisons can confound wiring with how the models are tuned: a connectome fixes who connects to whom, not the excitability, gains or plasticity rates the model also needs, and modellers often tune these until the real-wiring model works. We separate three estimands: physiology tuned on the real wiring and transferred to nulls (P1), each wiring tuned on its own (P2), and P2 restricted to physiology consistent with independent data (P3). The biases involved are known in machine learning (under-tuned baselines, inherited weights, winner's curse); we measure what they do to biological conclusions, using synthetic ground truth, placebo nulls and three Drosophila circuit models. Some claims survive every protocol we test: segregated reward and punishment dopamine improves learning, and head-direction topography is required for a persistent bump. Others do not. In the mushroom body, the real Kenyon-cell output wiring beats a cross-subtype identity shuffle by 0.09 under P1 and P2 but loses to it by 0.09 under P3 (95% CIs exclude zero; held-out runs confirm). The verdict is set by the share of alpha'beta' cells among active Kenyon cells, which P1 selects low; at the share implied by imaging (about 44%) the real-wiring model fails to learn, exposing a model inadequacy rather than a deficit of the fly's wiring. In flyvis, P1 penalises a mirrored connectome, which has a constructed solution within 0.07 (median) of the real error, more than a spatially shuffled one in 50 of 50 members; the ranking survives ten-fold longer retraining but depends on the checkpoint at fifty-fold. A credible structural claim needs matched optimisation, data-constrained physiology and a model that still works there.

arXiv AI Papers

Continual-ARC: Measuring Skill Acquisition over a Working Lifetime

Agent harnesses have emerged as a promising mechanism for continual learning, alongside test-time parametric learning. However, the current benchmarks have several limitations: they generally focus on a single applied domain, serve each instance only once, and assume a single family of learner, so memory-based and weight-based systems are rarely compared on the same scale. We propose Continual-ARC, a lifelong stream built from the three ARC-AGI editions, whose tasks need no domain knowledge. The same tasks return after dormant gaps with fresh instances, while new tasks keep arriving. On each instance, the learner may pay for demonstrations, submit answers, or act inside the harness, with retries permitted on incorrect submissions, which are paid for. Each instance is scored based on the share of this feedback budget consumed. Since a learner may keep anything between instances, memory-based and weight-based systems are scored on the same scale. After the stream, the learner is frozen and tested on fresh instances of the tasks it met, which measures memorization, and on unseen tasks, which measures generalization. We run an agent harness with frozen weights, with and without persistence, on Qwen3.5-9B and GLM-5.3 Flash, comparing them with two prompting floors, a program-induction method and Qwen3.5-9B's weights trained to imitate GLM-5.3 Flash. Persistence in the harness generally does not improve memorization unless provided with explicit expert guidance. Most harness-based methods still learn less than a floor that simply caches each task's demonstrations, across all models we tested. No harness-based method gains on unseen tasks, whereas weight-based learning shows substantial gains. This opens the door to future weight-based continual learning that could teach models to drive harnesses in new domains.

arXiv AI Papers

A Theory of Cross-Validation Variance

Cross-validation estimates predictive performance by repeatedly splitting the data into training and validation sets, fitting the model on the first and evaluating it on the second. Every observation influences the estimate in two roles, through its own evaluation when it is held out and through the models it helps fit when it trains. The random splits determine its weight in each role. From this representation, we prove an exact finite-sample identity for the variance of the cross-validated estimate. For a given splitting scheme with a common training set size, the variance is a function of these weights, with constants of the model, the metric, and the population. It covers metrics averaged over observations, such as mean squared error, and over case--control pairs, such as the AUC. The identity shows which schemes to use. The variance decomposes into sampling variance, which depends only on the training size, and variance due to the random fold splitting, which arises when the weights change from one draw of the splits to the next. K-fold cross-validation, whose weights are equal across observations by design, is therefore variance optimal at first order; Monte Carlo and bootstrap cross-validation are not. The first-order variance of K-fold does not depend on K, and under reasonable conditions on the model leave-one-out has the smallest variance of any K-fold scheme. For the AUC the same holds for leave-pair-out, which evaluates every case--control pair. Finally, we show the cross-validated estimate is asymptotically normal with the identity's full variance. Together, these results provide a general theoretical foundation for inference on cross-validated performance and establish principles for selecting variance-optimal cross-validation designs.

arXiv AI Papers

Precision on Demand: Escalating Weight Bits at Uncertain Decoding Steps in a Small Local Model

Local decoding usually fixes one weight precision for the whole generation. We study a different allocation: store 8-bit weights, decode with their top 4 bits, and redo a step at 8 bits only when the low-precision output distribution looks uncertain (entropy above a threshold or a small top-two margin). Quantization is simulated, the model is Qwen3-0.6B, and the benchmark is GSM8K. Cost is counted in weight bytes read per token. On 36724 replayed steps the entropy of the low pass ranks argmax flips with AUC 0.93. At a 15% escalation budget it catches 78% of flips and the margin gate 94%, against the 15% expected for a random gate of equal rate (a computed expectation, not a run). In 150 live problems all-high scores 64.0% and all-low 55.3% (McNemar p=0.053). An entropy gate with a 16% escalation rate scores 62.7% at 0.87 of the all-high weight bytes. Its paired difference is -1.3 (-8.0 to +5.3) points to all-high and +7.3 (+0.0 to +14.7) points to all-low (p=0.080), so the live data do not separate the gate from either end. Verified speculation reaches zero KL at similar bytes in the same cost model. A live random control, a thinking-mode phase rule, a second model and live KL were not run.

arXiv AI Papers

Bits or permutations? Spending a fixed inference budget on weight precision or on option-order averaging in small local language models

Local language models can save memory by storing weights in fewer bits, and they can reduce sensitivity to the order of answer options by averaging a few reorderings. We ask whether the first makes the second worse, and which is the cheaper way to spend a fixed budget. On Qwen3-0.6B and Qwen3-1.7B with simulated round-to-nearest weight quantization (8, 6, 4 and 3 bits, fp16 reference), read from the logits of the letters A to D on ARC-Easy, ARC-Challenge, MMLU and HellaSwag (300 items each), 6 bits lose no accuracy against fp16 (they score +1.8 (+1.0 to +2.5) and +0.9 (+0.3 to +1.5) points higher, which we do not explain), and 8 bits change it by -0.7 (-1.1 to -0.3) and -0.4 (-0.7 to -0.2) points. At 4 bits the answer-slot skew rises from 0.15 to 0.53 (0.6B) and from 0.07 to 0.12 (1.7B); Gaussian noise at the same weight SNR gives 0.15 and 0.37 (two draws) and 0.19 (one draw), so the control is inconclusive on whether rounding adds slot skew beyond equal-power noise. Flip rates rise but stay below an accuracy-matched baseline of independent uniform errors. Averaging four cyclic orders recovers +12.6 points at 4 bits for 0.6B (+5.3 at fp16). We price bits and passes in one machine-independent unit, weight bytes read times passes. In cost-matched pairs, extra orders beat extra bits only when the weights have 6 or more bits, and the decision table reduces to: use 6-bit weights and spend the rest of the budget on up to four orders, one pass each. Everything is simulated on two small models with the simplest quantizer; a title-level search found no earlier study of quantization together with option order.

arXiv AI Papers

REAL Loss: Optimizing Real Expected Acceptance Length for Speculative Decoding

Speculative decoding accelerates LLM inference by having a draft model propose multiple tokens for the target model to verify in one pass. The speedup is governed by the expected acceptance length (EAL), yet standard training objectives such as cross-entropy, KL divergence, and total variation focus only on distribution matching or single-step overlap. Recent studies instead propose block-level training objectives, aiming to optimize EAL directly. However, these objectives remain surrogates rather than exact formulations of EAL. For example, some average later acceptance over target-distributed continuations rather than the verification branches selected by accepted tokens, introducing a covariance gap that can reverse the gradient direction. We analyze this gap and derive REAL, a real EAL training loss that uses path weights for unbiased estimation and Rao-Blackwellization for variance reduction. In a controlled loss-level comparison with a Qwen3.6-35B-A3B target and a Domino drafter, REAL outperforms WTV, VSD, DBLast, and the static LK baseline on probabilistic serving acceptance length across 9 task subsets and 5 evaluation seeds. These gains require only a change to the training loss, with no modification to the drafter architecture or inference procedure, demonstrating the practicality of real EAL training. A reference implementation of the REAL loss is available at https://github.com/King-ty/speculators/tree/real-loss.

arXiv AI Papers

Uncertainty-Aware Hybrid Offline Reinforcement Learning with Online Action Selection Enabled by Sparse Gaussian-Process Critics

Start-ups and grade changes remain largely operator-driven, while developing and maintaining dynamic models for model-based control requires substantial engineering effort. Hybrid Offline Learning and Online Optimisation (HOFLON) uses one-step offline reinforcement learning to select actions from historical transition data. In its original implementation, the online objective combines the predicted return from a tree-ensemble critic with an adversarial-autoencoder (AAE) penalty for unfamiliar state-action pairs. We examine the effect of this penalty and replace the critic and AAE with a sparse variational Gaussian-process (sGP) critic. Actions maximise μ- κσ, an uncertainty-adjusted estimate of the return from one action followed by the historical operating practice. On the HOFLON polymerisation-reactor benchmark, removing the AAE from HOFLON led to 4 failed start-ups in 15 runs over five critics. At its published weight, the variation in the AAE penalty is four orders of magnitude smaller than the variation in the tree-ensemble critic. Nevertheless, it changes actions when the predicted returns of competing candidates are nearly equal, and paired runs with and without the penalty diverged from the first move. With a Matérn-5/2 sGP critic, κ= 0 led to failure in 13 of 15 runs, whereas with κ= 3 none of 15 runs (five critics, three noise realisations) failed. The median and lowest returns were 13,464 and 13,398 (HOFLON: 13,393 and 12,411). A squared-exponential sGP critic with learned inducing inputs needed κ3 to remain within the empirical data support in steady state, and then settled with a temperature offset of 2.0 K.

On-Device Speech Recognition and Text-to-Speech in Google AI Edge Gallery

Google AI Edge Gallery now supports on-device, offline Automatic Speech Recognition (ASR) and Text-to-Speech (TTS) capabilities for building developer-friendly voice applications. Developers can leverage ML Kit for optimized Android performance, or use MediaPipe Tasks and LiteRT for cross-platform open-weight model integration. This local pipeline seamlessly pairs lightweight speech models with on-device small language models like Gemini Nano and Gemma 4…

arXiv AI Papers

The Unused Input: The Initial State as a Conditioning Interface for Recurrent TSFMs

Time series foundation models (TSFMs) forecast unseen series without task-specific training. Increasingly they are built on recurrent backbones, whose constant per-step cost makes long-context inference cheap, and which, unlike transformers, carry a state. A recurrent backbone computes its prediction from two inputs: the observed context window and the initial recurrent state. In practice only the first is utilised and the initial state is unused by convention. We ask whether the initial state can be utilised in recurrent TSFMs. Using the xLSTM-based zero-shot forecaster TiRex as a case study, we freeze the backbone and train only a small head that writes a context vector into the initial state, so that any change in accuracy is attributable to the injected state rather than to adapted weights. A spectral summary of the input window, learned once and applied unchanged to every series, lowers mean GiftEval MASE by 0.175%, with every seed improving, which neither a parameter-matched LoRA adapter nor a learnable static state reproduces. An embedding of text attached to each series, evaluated on six MoTime datasets, reveals two roles for the state. As a per-dataset adaptation surface, a static state lowers MASE by 0.04-6.96% of the zero-shot baseline (8-70% of the gain of full fine-tuning). As a channel for exogenous information, the text-conditioned state lowers it by a further 0.15-0.41% of the zero-shot baseline on four of six datasets and, combined with a LoRA adapter, exceeds full fine-tuning, which has no access to the text, on one of them. In TiRex, the effect concentrates in the mLSTM blocks and is strongest at short context. The results are preliminary and the improvements small, but they point to the initial state as a direction for further research.

Amazon Bedrock tokenomics data lake

Running Amazon Bedrock across many accounts shows you the bill but not what happened inside each call. This post builds a centralized observability data lake that aggregates Bedrock invocation logs from every linked account into one queryable table, so you can see prompts, token counts, model choice, and per-invocation cost across your organization.

arXiv AI Papers

AI Isn't Getting Dumber, We're Getting Pickier: Rising Standards in Human Evaluation of Large Language Models

Users often complain that AI assistants such as ChatGPT are getting worse. Some versions do change, but human evaluation leaves a second possibility untested: the people judging may change. We separate the two on Chatbot Arena, a public platform where people compare answers from two anonymous large language models (LLMs) and pick the better one or say both are bad. We study 1,260,967 blind votes cast from May 2023 to August 2024 on pairs of models whose versions are fixed: dated vendor snapshots and models with fixed open weights. For the same pair of unchanged models, the share of votes saying "both are bad" rises by 1.71 percentage points a month on a mean of 17.1%, and by 1.91 points a month in 2024. In fourteen pairs observed often in both 2023 and 2024, it rose in every one, from 15.5% to 23.3%. The ranking does not trend: in 2024, the stronger model's share of decisive votes is flat. The rise holds within the same voter and on the same pair, and across arrival cohorts from their first recorded vote. It holds with prompt controls, in every major language, for dated vendor snapshots, open-weight models and models with stable answer length, and between interface changes. The drift is shared across models: month effects estimated from other models' pairs remove it from each model's own pairs. Platform-wide, the average model would be expected to score 78% against the 2023 average, yet the share of "both are bad" votes ended near where it began. The pattern fits a standard that follows the category's progress, so a product that stands still is judged as declining. Absolute verdicts on AI drifted while relative comparisons held steady, an evaluation drift that matters for LLM leaderboards and for the human feedback used to train models.

arXiv AI Papers

Auditing the Judge: Internal Signals for LLM Reasoning Assurance

Language-model systems use self-judgment to decide which answers to release, review, or recompute. Because intervention is costly, an assurance score must rank errors well at the available budget, not merely over the full ranking. We compare the judge's continuous verdict-token score with a supervised correctness probe trained on attention-head activations from the same prompt. Exact identities link fixed-budget error recall to residual risk and show that AUROC averages recall over all budgets. Across three open 7-12B models on GSM8K and MATH, the probe finds 1.3-22.5 additional percentage points of errors at 5% review in all six model-dataset settings (median 7.4 points). At 10% routing, probe-guided allocation improves accuracy over equal-cost random allocation in both GSM8K experiments, but beats judge-guided routing only for the weaker judge. Cross-dataset transfer lowers probe AUROC for every model in both directions relative to target-domain training. Because dataset, weight precision, and generation budget change together, this measures a joint protocol shift rather than a dataset-only effect. Internal signals can improve supervised, in-domain budget allocation, but are not domain-general confidence estimators.

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