RATL: Learning from Retrieved Residuals for Robust Multivariate Time-Series Forecasting
1mo
- Published
- Collected
Authors
Yuchen He, Yueyang Cang, Zhiyuan Ning, Ningyu Wang, Li Shi
Categories
Retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) complements parametric models with retrieved external evidence. The same idea is attractive for continuous-output regression, but directly reusing retrieved target values is often not robust when samples differ in output level, numerical scale, or local dynamics. Moreover, conventional forecasting pipelines generally use residuals for model optimization and error diagnosis, but do not retain individual historical residual examples as memory that can be accessed at inference time.For multivariate time-series forecasting, we propose RATL, a plug-in residual-retrieval and feedback-correction method. RATL freezes a base forecaster to construct retrieval keys and turns its historical forecast residuals into a train-only memory specific to that base model. At inference time, RATL retrieves residual trajectories from similar historical contexts subject to causal availability constraints, then uses a set-aware router operating over forecast blocks and variables to select and combine these trajectories. Experiments show that historical residuals matched to the current context contain reusable forecasting information and that RATL improves frozen base forecasters in most experimental settings. Ablations further show that learned routing strengthens raw residual feedback, while validation-based correction-strength selection limits residual over-injection.On real-world benchmarks, we use iTransformer as the primary frozen base forecaster, compare against multiple strong forecasting baselines, and test transferability across backbones. The results show that RATL can further improve base-forecaster performance in most settings.Overall, RATL shifts the retrieved object from historical target values to base-model-specific historical forecast errors, providing a plug-in, residual-memory-based paradigm for learned feedback correction in continuous-output forecasting.
overfeed.news indexes and links. We publish a short excerpt — the full article stays at arXiv AI Papers.
More from arXiv AI Papers
Log in to follow this source
Honeycomb-Surfels: Compact Hexagonal Primitives for Efficient Scene Rendering and Reconstruction
Novel view synthesis and 3D reconstruction have advanced rapidly with radiance fields and splatting, yet their memory and computational demands limit their use in resource-constrained settings. We introduce Hexels: novel planar hexagonal surface elements with a first-order spatial color field for efficient 3D scene and 2D image representation. Hexels exploit locally planar regions with smoothly varying appearance using fewer, larger primitives. Their hexagonal support provides an area- and boundary-efficient domain, while the local color field captures appearance variation within each primitive. Across 34 scenes, Hexels improve PSNR over memory-matched 2DGS by 4.53-7.38 dB across datasets while requiring lower training VRAM. We further ablate Hexels by showing that per primitive, Hexels outperform 2DGS by upto 4.74 dB while using lower training VRAM and having 2.31 times faster FPS. Even in unconstrained settings, Hexels offers complementary quality-memory trade-offs. For efficient 3D surface reconstruction, Hexels reduce error by 28.9% compared with memory-matched 2DGS across 15 DTU scans. On 6 Tanks and Temples surface scenes, Hexels achieves the highest mean F1 among compared methods (34.38%, versus 31.72% for 2DGS). We further also show that Hexels, as a general primitive, improves 2D image representation over Image-GS. Hexels push the Pareto frontier on the quality-efficiency trade-off of surface-aligned primitives.
ThinkWorld: World Imagination Reinforces Chain-of-Dynamics Reasoning
Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models have made substantial progress in robotic manipulation, but their generalization remains constrained by the diversity and coverage of action-labeled robot demonstrations. Human videos provide much broader behavioral and environmental experience, while learning from them faces a fundamental trade-off between scalable data and explicit action grounding. We introduce ThinkWorld, a VLA learning framework that grounds action reasoning in world dynamics and strengthens it through reinforcement learning with world imagination. ThinkWorld represents each action thought as a Chain-of-Dynamics (CoD), a sequence of discrete motion tokens that captures the intermediate dynamics connecting the current world to a future state and serves as a common action representation across embodiments. We first initialize CoD with action-labeled demonstrations, then predict the future induced by each CoD and reinforce those whose predictions better match the observed outcome. This enables videos without action annotations to provide direct supervision from observed state transitions, allowing human and robot experience to refine the same reasoning space. Experiments in simulation and on real robots demonstrate effective human-to-robot transfer and strong generalization to unseen tasks and environments.
When Should We Intervene at Test Time?
Test-time adaptation helps a deployed model respond to changing inputs, but the same intervention can rescue one batch and damage the next. Updating normalization statistics, for example, can improve corrupted images yet fail when a batch contains mostly one class. Average accuracy hides these failures and cannot tell a model when to use an intervention. Target labels can guide this decision, but they are scarce and some choices are already clear. We introduce PORTAL, a controller that chooses when to deploy an intervention, which inputs to label, and when to stop querying. Each available prediction rule is a candidate, and its predictions are fixed before current feedback arrives. Every acquired label therefore evaluates all candidates on the same input. PORTAL combines these shared comparisons and directs queries toward candidates that can still overtake the current leader. It stops when the remaining labels cannot change the choice or when the possible accuracy gain no longer justifies another query. Our analysis links the required feedback to accuracy gaps and shared mistakes, explaining why some choices need much less evidence. Experiments show that this control turns an intervention that loses accuracy overall into a useful choice on selected batches. It prevents severe failures caused by changes in arrival order and preserves gains across complete corruption streams. When a fixed rule already works well, PORTAL uses little feedback to retain its performance. Periodic label checks reveal when past evidence needs refreshing and help the controller recover as conditions change. The acquired labels also train stronger candidates for future batches, and selection brings nearly all of their accuracy gains into deployment. The same feedback therefore improves both the choice made now and the predictions available to later batches.
Heads of Security: Learned Attention Gates Improve Prompt Injection Robustness
We introduce Heads of Security (HoS), a prompt injection defense that enforces instruction-data separation via a small set of learned per-head attention gates. HoS learns how each head should redistribute attention between trusted and untrusted tokens, enabling models to reason over untrusted content without following injected instructions. We evaluate HoS on Llama-3.3-70B-Instruct and GPT-OSS-20B. We compare it against SecAlign++, a state-of-the-art finetuning-based defense, and ASIDE, a defense that, like ours, builds instruction-data separation into the model architecture. We show that HoS offers greater robustness to adaptive attacks, better performance on standard utility benchmarks, and matches top performance on standard agentic prompt injection benchmarks. More specifically, the black-box RL-Hammer attack reaches 97% ASR against GPT-OSS-20B and 85% against SecAlign, but only 10% against HoS. Claudini, a state-of-the-art white-box attack, strengthened against HoS through autoresearch, requires 3 times more FLOPs to reach the same ASR on HoS as it does on GPT-OSS-20B or SecAlign. HoS preserves base-model utility across standard multiple-choice benchmarks and prompting setups, whereas SecAlign and ASIDE degrade in few-shot settings. On agentic benchmarks with static attacks, HoS and SecAlign perform similarly and substantially improve the security-utility trade-off over the base model. ASIDE struggles with tool use, achieving only 10% utility. These results show that prompt injection robustness can be achieved and improved through targeted attention interventions.