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arXiv AI Papers

Grouping the Stochastic Machine: Precision, Not Capability, as the Frontier Metric for AI Systems

Frontier language models are compared, marketed, and benchmarked on capability -- what their best or average output can achieve. I argue this measures the wrong axis. The models have saturated accuracy: their mean output lands on the target. What now separates one system from another in practice is precision: how tightly concentrated their outputs are around that target across repeated, identical requests. Borrowing the marksman's distinction, capability is where the average shot lands; reliability is the size of the group. I make three claims. First, precision, not capability, is the frontier differentiator between systems, and benchmark culture systematically fails to measure it, reporting central tendency rather than spread. Second, precision is measurable, cheaply and without circularity, by running a fixed suite of deterministically scored tasks many times at fixed temperature and computing the per-task consistency of outcomes -- no model-in-the-loop grader required. Third, the measurement is not merely descriptive but decision-guiding: it separates consistent failures (a tight group off-centre, correctable by the operating discipline of Paper 1 -- a sight adjustment) from scattered failures (a wide group, correctable only by changing the model or its sampling -- a rifle problem). I define a grouping metric, specify a harness, and show how tracking a human-AI pair's grouping over time yields the compounding signal that Paper 1's field study requires. A first real run, since replicated, illustrates both the method and its most important limit: one measured gap was closed completely by a single rule (0/5 -> 5/5), while a suite of tasks authored from the rules themselves found no value, because a frontier model already embodies explicit good practice -- establishing that a discipline's worth is found by measurement on real work, not constructed from its own rulebook.

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arXiv AI Papers

SCORE: Subject Coordinate Recovery for Label-Free Cross-Subject EEG-to-Image Retrieval

Accurate visual decoding can reveal how the brain represents visual information and recover perceived content from neural signals such as electroencephalography (EEG), with potential for neural communication. However, current EEG-to-image retrieval methods perform far below their within-subject counterparts for new users without labeled calibration, limiting real-world deployment. To understand this gap, we analyze EEG features across subjects and find that different subjects preserve similar relationships among concepts but express them along different coordinate directions. We therefore propose Subject Coordinate Recovery (SCORE), a target label-free framework combining recovery-aware source training with coordinate alignment at deployment. During training, SCORE aligns source subject EEG with a common image space and simulates unseen-subject recovery through source-only episodes. At deployment, with both encoders frozen, SCORE selects reliable EEG-image landmarks through hubness-corrected matching and estimates an orthogonal transformation to recover target EEG coordinates without source data or target labels. In 200-way retrieval on two public benchmarks, SCORE outperforms the unadapted baseline for every target subject and achieves the best overall accuracy. It reaches 53.23%/83.55% and 12.01%/32.16% Top-1/Top-5 on THINGS-EEG2 and Alljoined-1.6M, respectively, surpassing the strongest baselines by 17.45/15.70 and 3.08/4.62 percentage points. Without target labels or encoder updates, SCORE brings brain-based visual decoding closer to robust, practical, low-latency deployment across users.

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arXiv AI Papers

Comment-level Topic Drift Analysis in the Reddit Corpus

We present a novel application of embedding-based dynamic topic modeling techniques to detect and quantify topic drift at the comment level in a massive corpus. By leveraging pretrained language models to generate contextualized semantic embeddings for short text, we analyzed 12.7 billion Reddit comments spanning 2006 to 2022. Using unsupervised methods on these embeddings, we identify dynamically evolving topic clusters over time. Our primary contribution is a methodology for analysis of semantic drift and discourse evolution in the embedding space itself. We also demonstrate modifications to existing methods that enable this analysis at scale, and we propose and demonstrate a null model comparison test to filter spurious dynamics. Key findings suggest that politically and socially contentious topics exhibit significant directional drift in embedding space, with inter-topic distances changing systematically over time beyond what the null model can explain, whereas domains such as music and sports remain comparatively stable.

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arXiv AI Papers

Beyond Trial Averaging: Anchoring Neural and Visual Representations for Few-Repetition Brain-to-Image Retrieval

Decoding visual information from brain signals probes neural representations and enables neuro-rehabilitation and dream decoding. Recent brain-to-image retrieval approaches have achieved promising performance, typically by averaging many (up to 80) neural trials per image, requiring repeated stimulus presentation that increases latency, cost, and user burden. When only one or a few repetitions are available, the retrieval accuracy drops sharply. This drop is commonly attributed to query noise because averaging suppresses noise and increases signal stability. However, we find a non-transitive alignment pattern: the low-repetition query signal and the image representation each align with the high-repetition center, but not directly with each other. This pattern shows that query noise is only part of the problem and that gallery placement also affects retrieval. We therefore propose a neural-anchor-based retrieval (NEAR) framework that treats the high-repetition center as an anchor and approaches it from both sides: a denoiser pulls the noisy query toward the true anchor, and a small network predicts each candidate's pseudo anchor from its image and pulls the image toward it. Across four datasets spanning EEG, MEG and fMRI, NEAR consistently improved retrieval in the few-repetition regime. On THINGS-EEG2, it improved 200-way Top-1 accuracy by 5.7 and 9.3 percentage points respectively, when averaging one and four repetitions. By anchoring neural and visual representations, NEAR reduces reliance on repeated acquisition and brings neural retrieval closer to real-world deployment.

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arXiv AI Papers

Leaf Values as Coordinates: Exact Contrastive Explanation for Gradient-Boosted Ensembles

A gradient-boosted ensemble predicts by summing one leaf value per tree. Read those values as coordinates rather than as intermediate results, and every instance becomes a point in R^M on which the model acts linearly: the score is the sum of the coordinates. This small change of view makes contrastive explanation exact. The difference between two instances is a vector that is identically zero wherever they share a leaf, so the gap between a rejected applicant and an accepted one is carried by a handful of coordinates, each traceable to a real split in a real tree. Nothing is fitted, sampled, or assumed additive in features -- the additivity is already there, in the right space. We build a recourse method on this representation and evaluate it on five tabular datasets under repeated cross-validation. Its recommendation reconstructs the model's own decision to 6.2 x 10^-15, so an auditor can re-check the arithmetic without the model. On the credit datasets it is Pareto-non-dominated on effort against realism. And when recommendations are restricted to changes the subject could actually make -- not their age, not a settled delinquency -- it retains 58% of its validity where the strongest baseline retains 41%, a distinction the standard evaluation cannot see because it never asks whether a recommendation can be carried out.

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arXiv AI Papers

Tuning the Stochastic Machine: A Systems Engineer's Operating Model for Human-AI Engineering

When an expert corrects an LLM assistant's error, the correction usually dies with the session, and the error class returns. I argue this is an operations problem, not a tooling problem: mechanisms for persisting corrections exist and are shipping, but the discipline for governing them -- versioning with provenance, recurrence monitoring, counter-metrics, retirement of stale rules -- does not. Writing as a systems engineer of thirty years, I map the LLM stack onto the machines my profession already operates (frozen silicon, firmware, loadable modules, persistent configuration, volatile memory), identify where the mapping fails (stochastic generation, configuration that binds only probabilistically, no general-purpose retirement (verification) stage by default), and derive from the failures a seven-principle operating discipline with an error loop at its core. Three cases from my own practice illustrate the mechanism, among them a control that silently became the exact harm it was built to prevent. I close with the measurement framework this view implies and the lab study required to test it.

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arXiv AI Papers

PGFS++: Molecular Property Improvement under Synthesis and Diversity Constraints

Improving molecular properties, such as drug-likeness or binding affinity, is a recurring task in early-stage drug discovery. However, molecules optimized in an unconstrained chemical space have limited practical value if they cannot be synthesized. Policy Gradient for Forward Synthesis (PGFS) is a synthesis-aware reinforcement learning method for molecular improvement, but its use of reactant embedding prediction makes reactant selection indirect, which, as we show, limits learning effectiveness. We first develop PGFS+, in which reaction templates and second reactants are represented by trainable embedding lookup tables. Combined with a more effective scoring function and RL algorithm, PGFS+ significantly improves the desired property. However, it exposes a reward-hacking failure mode: a powerful reactant search can map diverse input molecules to the same high-reward magnet molecule, improving the reward while collapsing the output diversity. We therefore introduce PGFS++, a synthesis-aware reinforcement learning framework for input-specific molecular improvement. Given an input molecule, PGFS++ treats it as the start of a forward-synthesis trajectory, applies learned reaction templates with compatible in-stock building blocks, and produces a molecule with improved target properties, an explicit synthesis route, and structural similarity to the input. Experiments on molecular improvement tasks show that PGFS++ improves target properties while preserving high output diversity.

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arXiv AI Papers

Discretizing Continuous Time Series for Imputation with Masked Diffusion Training

Time series imputation is a crucial area for reliable time series analysis, yet it remains challenging due to the complex temporal dynamics and noise of real-world data. Existing approaches, however, exhibit two limitations: missing and observed values are embedded within the same representation space without explicit structural separation, and continuous diffusion-based methods are trained to predict added noise rather than the original signal. To address these, we propose the Masked Diffusion Time-series Imputation Model (MDTIM), which leverages the training paradigm of masked diffusion model for imputation tasks. The MASK token is structurally orthogonal to valid observations, and the model directly predicts the original values, naturally aligning both the representation and the learning objective with the imputation task. To bridge the gap between discrete masked diffusion and the continuous, ordinal nature of time series, we further introduce Stochastic Discretization, which maps continuous values to ordinal-aware tokens while preserving continuous dynamics. Our experiments on diverse benchmarks confirm that MDTIM achieves superior robustness and scalability, consistently outperforming state-of-the-art deterministic and generative baselines across various missing scenarios.

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arXiv AI Papers

Enhancing EBSD throughput of battery electrode materials using super-resolution generative adversarial networks

Quantitative microstructural characterization of Li-ion battery electrode materials using electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD) has been proven as a critical method for optimizing cell performance. However, the inherently slow nature of EBSD can hinder the throughput of analyses needed for statistical representation of a material microstructure being developed. This work demonstrates a machine learning super-resolution framework using a generative adversarial network (SRGAN) to significantly increase EBSD throughput. The SRGAN model was trained on EBSD data of LiNixMnyCozO2 (NMC) cathode particles to computationally enhance low-resolution datasets and its performance is compared against classical interpolation methods across various upscaling factors (2x to 12x). Both qualitative image metrics and quantitative microstructural analysis verified that the SRGAN systematically outperformed classical methods, particularly in preserving small grains and maintaining realistic grain boundaries. We demonstrate that a 5x upscaling factor, corresponding to a 25x speed-up in acquisition time or a 25x larger field of view, is practical while maintaining acceptable accuracy in key metrics like grain size and shape. For instance, at 5x upscaling, relative errors were +5.7%, +8.2%, and -14.6% on grain area-equivalent diameter, grain maximum sphere-inscribed diameter, and grain boundary length, respectively. The SRGAN methodology developed in this work significantly enhances the efficiency of EBSD acquisition for more statistically robust microstructural dataset, enabling EBSD as a high-throughput characterization tool for materials research and industrial process development.

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arXiv AI Papers

Pretraining Reusable Inference Across Views with Synthetic Task Priors

Modern pretrained encoders make representations from heterogeneous views increasingly reusable, but the procedure that determines view utility and combines evidence is still relearned for each downstream task. Consequently, knowledge about view relevance, complementarity, reliability, and missingness is repeatedly discarded rather than transferred across tasks. We therefore reformulate multi-view learning as learning a reusable, task-conditioned inference procedure rather than a fixed fusion function. Based on this perspective, we propose SIMPLE, a prior-fitted multi-view in-context learner that predicts query labels by conditioning on a small labeled support set. Since existing real-world datasets cover only a limited range of view configurations and task structures, we construct a controllable synthetic task prior in embedding space. It generates diverse support-query episodes with varying class structures, shared and view-specific factors, representation geometries, cross-view dependencies, reliability levels, missingness patterns, and distribution shifts. A hierarchical inference architecture then performs reasoning within views, across views, and across support and query samples. Experiments on multi-view and multi-omics benchmarks demonstrate that the frozen variant of SIMPLE achieves competitive performance without updating the inference backbone, while lightweight adapter calibration attains leading performance on most evaluated datasets. Together, the results under frozen, one-shot, and missing-view settings support the central hypothesis that multi-view reasoning itself can be pretrained and reused, while lightweight adapter calibration provides task-specific alignment when needed.

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arXiv AI Papers

Open-MOPD: Diagnosing and Fixing Capability Imbalance in Multi-Teacher On-Policy Distillation

Multi-teacher on-policy distillation (M-OPD) has emerged as a promising paradigm for consolidating domain-specialized reinforcement learning (RL) experts into a single generalist student via dense, token-level reward supervision. Despite its practical success, the optimization dynamics governing multi-teacher capability integration remain poorly understood, and open, rigorously reproducible recipes are conspicuously lacking. In this work, we establish a controlled M-OPD benchmark on SmolLM3-3B-Base with oracle routing, isolating capability integration from routing ambiguity. Our investigation reveals a pronounced capability integration gap: standard M-OPD captures only 35.6% of the available headroom relative to a domain-routed oracle ensemble, with concise tasks such as instruction following suffering severe degradation and premature stagnation. Crucially, we show that this failure stems not from gradient conflict, but from a severe misallocation of the token-level optimization budget. This pathology is driven by three orthogonal factors: structural sequence-length disparities across domains, dynamic convergence drift due to non-uniform learning rates, and multi-step reward staleness from asynchronous policy updates. To resolve these imbalances, we introduce Open-MOPD, a principled framework incorporating token-share balancing, gap-aware dynamic budget allocation, and student reward refresh. Together, these mechanisms systematically restore cross-domain balance, elevating headroom recovery from 35.6% to 83.4% in a single deployable student. We fully open-source our end-to-end post-training recipe, training trajectories, and evaluation suites on an academically accessible hardware budget.

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arXiv AI Papers

Detecting Backdoors in Object Detection via Pre-NMS Prediction Distribution Shift

Object detection models deployed in safety-critical applications remain vulnerable to backdoor attacks that cause targeted misbehaviors when a hidden trigger is present. Existing detection methods either rely on trigger inversion or exploit architecture-specific assumptions, and critically, representative existing methods fail to generalize reliably to scene-level attacks, where a single trigger induces anomalous behavior across all objects in the scene simultaneously. We present DistScan, a backdoor detection framework based on a simple but previously unexploited observation: backdoor injection systematically shifts a model's pre-NMS prediction class distribution away from its training class frequencies, even on clean inputs without any trigger present. DistScan aggregates intermediate class predictions over a clean validation set and flags a model as backdoored if the resulting distribution deviates significantly from the training class frequencies, requiring no model weight access, no trigger knowledge, and no additional training. Extensive experiments on MS-COCO and PASCAL VOC across two architectures and three scene-level attack scenarios demonstrate that DistScan substantially outperforms existing methods, improving average detection accuracy over the best-performing applicable baseline by 27.32 percentage points.

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arXiv AI Papers

DA-WAM: Decision-Aligned Future Latents for Driving World Models

Anticipating how scenes evolve under ego actions is fundamental to safe autonomous driving, yet the full potential of world models for decision-making remains unrealized. The critical challenge lies in ensuring that future modeling is not merely predictive, but decision-informative: the predicted future must directly shape which trajectory is selected. Existing approaches decouple future representation learning from planning optimization, or share predicted states across trajectory candidates, thereby diluting the action-specific consequences that ought to guide selection. To bridge this gap, we propose DA-WAM, a framework that unifies predictive representation learning, action-conditioned future modeling, and trajectory scoring under a single decision-making objective. DA-WAM maintains predictive supervision throughout planner optimization via an online encoder and a stable momentum target, allowing future representations to co-evolve with the driving task. An action-conditioned predictor generates a distinct future latent state per trajectory candidate, which is then evaluated by a future-latent-conditioned factorized scorer. For the expert-matched trajectory, the predicted future latent is supervised by the observed future representation, while safety-critical hard negatives provide additional supervision near planning boundaries. Extensive experiments on NAVSIM-v1 and NAVSIM-v2 demonstrate state-of-the-art performance, while ablations and diagnostic analyses validate the key components.

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arXiv AI Papers

Does Mapping Non-Maximal Probabilities to GMM Components Matter for S-JEPA Encoder Representations?

S-JEPA uses soft Gaussian mixture model (GMM) posteriors instead of hard cluster labels to preserve uncertainty. It remains unclear whether the probability values alone are sufficient, or whether it also matters which GMM components receive the non-maximal probabilities. We test this with two matched controls. FIXED-RANDPERM keeps the top-1 component and probability together with the multiset of non-maximal probability values, but reassigns those non-maximal values using a mapping fixed for each physical frame. UNIFORM-TAIL keeps the top-1 component, its probability, and total non-maximal mass but distributes that mass uniformly. Across three independent seeds, REAL SOFT outperforms both controls on two frozen Encoder readouts. It provides better recovery of the original GMM tail and greater accessibility of spectral dynamics over short time scales after controlling for the complete spectrum of the current frame. In two exposure experiments, both readouts improved overall as more frames retained the original mapping. We also descriptively follow one Phase 2 trajectory after the switch to the online GMM. These results show that the numerical probability structure of the soft target does not fully determine the learned Encoder representation. The mapping of non-maximal probabilities to GMM components also matters.

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arXiv AI Papers

When Readability and Source Retention Diverge: An Evaluability Gap in AI Translation

Readable AI output can leave an evaluability gap: even when the source is shown, an overall-quality judgment may not reflect what an output preserves. We investigated how source-text condition and output rendering relate to perceived translation quality, and how output and system appraisals relate to trust and stated disclosure willingness in a plain-text interface. A focal 2 * 2 comparison (N=306) using TransLingo examined simple generated narratives and complex literary-philosophical prose alongside LLM-generated readability-oriented outputs and researcher-revised fidelity-oriented outputs. A descriptive stimulus audit indicated greater source retention in fidelity-oriented outputs in both source-text conditions. Factorial analyses showed a significant rendering-by-source-text-condition interaction in perceived quality. Participants rated fidelity-oriented outputs higher than readability-oriented outputs for the simple narratives, whereas no reliable rendering difference emerged for the complex prose. A corresponding source-condition-dependent pattern was observed for perceived intelligence, agency-oriented anthropomorphic attribution, and task-performance trust. A separate theory-ordered appraisal-structure SEM characterized concurrent associations among perceived quality, perceived intelligence, agency-oriented anthropomorphic attribution, task-performance trust, and stated disclosure willingness across six domains, with task-performance trust as the proximal correlate of stated willingness. The observed rating pattern distinguishes source access from source evaluability: for the complex stimuli, displaying the source did not ensure that one overall-quality rating reflected differences in retained content. It also separates support for evaluating translation output from data-handling support for decisions about what personal text to entrust to a system.

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arXiv AI Papers

Learning Random Geometric Graphs Drawn in Probabilistic Metric Spaces

We present a new data-driven learning of a Random Geometric Graph (RGG) of a multivariate dataset, where the graph is drawn in a probabilistic metric space. This graph learning works for generic datasets, irrespective of the type of the observables; their probability distributions; or size of the data. We identify a metric of the space that the graph is drawn in, as a probability distribution of a random variable that we introduce, namely, a variable that represents the disparity between the connectedness of two vertices of the graph, and the correlation between the two random variables that are attached to the respective vertex. It is the closed-form {{cdf}} of this disparity variable that we advance as the distance function of the host space of the learnt RGG, such that the edge exists between any two nodes, if this inter-nodal distance falls short of a chosen cutoff probability. Drawing the RGG in this probabilistic space leads to the graph being an Soft RGG, such that any edge - if it exists - exists with an identified probability. We forward a simple Rejection Sampling-based technique for learning the probability of any edge. The expected degree distribution of a vertex of this RGG is identified as local, and dependent on the inter-observable correlation matrix. If said correlation matrix is not known, it can be learnt given the data, using its closed-form posterior probability density function, that we forward. We illustrate our graph learning method by learning multiple RGGs of highly multivariate real datasets.

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arXiv AI Papers

SPK: Eliciting Structured Prior Knowledge for Interpretable Out-of-Distribution Detection in Real-Time Object Detection

Object detectors often produce over-confident predictions for objects outside their training categories, leading to so-called out-of-distribution (OoD) hallucinations. Existing approaches for detecting or mitigating such hallucinations typically either construct scoring functions directly over learned object detector representations or modify the object detector itself to suppress hallucination emergence. However, the latent priors implicitly encoded in these representations remain largely unexplored and have not been explicitly decoded for OoD detection. To uncover and exploit these latent priors, we propose Structured Prior Knowledge (SPK), a hallucination-oriented framework that explicitly elicits OoD-relevant priors from pretrained object detectors. Specifically, SPK leverages in-distribution data and hallucination-inducing samples as diagnostic supervision to elicit part-level semantic concepts underlying object detector decision-making, rather than using them merely for rejection or object detector adaptation. The elicited semantic priors are further integrated with geometric and contextual priors to form a compact five-dimensional SPK representation for OoD detection. Extensive experiments across diverse object detector architectures and multiple OoD benchmarks demonstrate that SPK achieves state-of-the-art OoD detection. Our findings reveal that pretrained object detectors already encode substantially richer latent knowledge than is typically exploited for OoD detection. More importantly, this knowledge can be explicitly elicited and organized into a compact, structured, and interpretable knowledge space for prediction reliability analysis. This suggests a promising proactive route for improving object detector reliability by explicitly uncovering and leveraging latent priors. Code and data are available at: https://gricad-gitlab.univ-grenoble-alpes.fr/dnn-safety/spk

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arXiv AI Papers

ReWEIGH the Evidence: Calibrating Token-Level Ordinal Visual Evidence to Mitigate Hallucinations in Large Vision-Language Models

Large vision-language models (LVLMs) often hallucinate, generating content that the input image does not support. Preventing such content during decoding calls for a candidate-specific measure of how strongly the image supports the token under consideration. The model's visual-token states offer a natural source of this evidence because projecting each state through the output head reveals which vocabulary items that position favors. These position-wise readouts cannot be pooled directly because their probability magnitudes are not comparable across visual positions. Vocabulary ranks provide a scale-invariant basis for pooling, but tokens still differ systematically in their typical rank-based evidence. We propose ReWEIGH, a training-free decoding intervention that aggregates these ranks across visual positions and compares each candidate with a token-specific reference estimated from unlabeled images. At inference, ReWEIGH caches the image evidence during prefill and applies a bounded penalty only to candidates that fall below their reference. On four 7B backbones, ReWEIGH reduces hallucinated object mentions by up to 21.3% while largely preserving or improving descriptive and general performance. With evidence cached, the average added latency is 1.33% per token, and the reductions extend across six architecture families to 32B parameters.

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arXiv AI Papers

Robust Risk Under Evolving Uncertainty: A Wasserstein Counterpart of the Entropic Value-at-Risk

An agent still learning its environment should be cautious while ignorant and bold once confident. The entropic value-at-risk captures this through a robust-optimization identity---a confidence level fixes the radius of a relative-entropy ball of alternative models---but that ball cannot reach catastrophes the nominal deems impossible, precisely what a safe agent must hedge. We instead use an optimal-transport ball and study the coherent risk measure it induces, the Wasserstein entropic value-at-risk. It has a variational dual mirroring the entropic formula (an inverse temperature becomes a transport price), occupies a definite place in the risk hierarchy, and provably accounts for the reachable catastrophes the entropic measure ignores; we verify both dualities numerically. Driving the transport radius by belief entropy then yields a closed-form robust dynamic-programming operator whose caution contracts as the belief sharpens, with a certified safety sandwich and a sharp safety switch.

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arXiv AI Papers

What is Missing from AI Post-Training AI: An Empirical Analysis

Large language model (LLM) agents can now post-train an LLM end-to-end. They can write code, launch training, evaluate checkpoints, and improve downstream performance, raising the prospect of AI-for-AI. We argue that this picture conflates two distinct capabilities: execution-level capability, iterating within a selected training strategy; and strategy-level capability, revising the high-level judgment as experimental evidence accumulates. Analyzing a large corpus of publicly released post-training trajectories, we find that across different tasks, the agent's training strategy is locked in at the very beginning, and the entire remaining budget is spent on local adjustments within the selected strategy. We then examine three natural explanations--missing experience, missing guidance, and insufficient reasoning--with escalating interventions. Extensive experiments show that (1) an experience-driven scaffold improves execution across the board (+12.6 points on GSM8K and +40.8 on HumanEval) but leaves the strategy static; (2) human guidance effectively redirects the initial strategy, yet the agent falls back into local adjustment loops once training starts; and (3) additional inference compute pays off on easier tasks but yields almost no gain on the hardest one. In conclusion, what agents lack is neither experience, guidance, nor reasoning compute, but a mechanism for spontaneously reevaluating their strategy during execution.

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