When forecasting a firm's future financial performance, alternative data - data collected from non-traditional sources such as consumer transactions, web traffic, and prediction markets - can provide timely signals about firms' operating activities and broader market conditions. These signals may reveal information that is not captured by traditional public sources and can therefore provide complementary information for forecasting firms' future financial performance. However, firm-level alternative data often have limited historical coverage, are relevant only to specific prediction targets or subsets of firms, and are distributed across numerous heterogeneous channels, making them difficult to incorporate flexibly into conventional forecasting approaches. Meanwhile, large language models (LLMs) can interpret instructions, learn from in-context examples, and generate predictions by combining heterogeneous information without task-specific parameter updates. Motivated by this potential flexibility, we investigate whether an LLM can forecast firm performance by integrating alternative data with other financial information through in-context learning. We propose a two-agent framework that first identifies the firms for which each alternative data channel is likely to be informative and then predicts revenue using firm- and channel-specific context. We evaluate the framework across four commercial alternative data channels. In our experiments, adding alternative data in context alongside other financial information improves the LLM's forecasting relative to either source alone, and these forecasts are more accurate than those of standard forecasting baselines. These findings suggest that LLMs provide a flexible and practical approach to integrating alternative data with heterogeneous financial information.
Identifiability of tensor decompositions is often established through linear-algebraic conditions on the factor families. For nonnegative decompositions, however, positivity provides additional information that is not captured by dimension and independence alone: nonnegative terms cannot cancel, and their supports constrain competing decompositions. We introduce a positive scattering term that quantifies this additional source of identifiability and combine it with the dimension budget underlying the Lovitz--Petrov generalization of Kruskal's theorem. For every subset of components, we obtain two sufficient conditions: a threshold of 2|S|-2 guarantees minimality and nonnegative rank, while the stronger threshold 2|S|-1 guarantees uniqueness among nonnegative decompositions of the same length. The key result is a positive splitting inequality for irreducible exchanges of nonnegative rank-one tensors, which combines the dimension constraint with support-induced geometric rigidity. Although the scattering term is defined through an optimization over intermediate factor spaces, we show that its mode costs are exactly 0, 1, or +, yielding an exact activation characterization in terms of graph connectivity. The resulting criterion can strictly certify sparse nonnegative tensor decompositions beyond the reach of Kruskal and Lovitz--Petrov conditions, including examples for which those conditions fail even after reshaping. In the matrix case, the two criteria reduce respectively to full-rank factorization and two-sided separability.
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Crash-severity models inform screening, dispatch and site prioritization, yet are deployed without a finite-sample statement of what one prediction means. Off-the-shelf guarantees fail here, because the features that make crash severity distinctive defeat them: the KABCO outcome is ordinal, the recorded label is a field assessment agreeing with medical severity about half the time, erring in a structured way, and deployment crosses jurisdictions and years calibration never saw. We develop a certification layer that wraps any severity model unmodified, with distribution-free guarantees using this structure: contiguous ordinal sets that read as "B or worse"; per-class validity for any pre-declared partition, with an oracle efficiency characterization; transfer of coverage to unobserved true severity through a declared reporting band, with a worst-case sharpness result; a one-sided certificate under deployment shift; and severity-weighted risk control. The guarantees compose with an attributable slack budget. The same analysis bounds what certification can achieve. A certified set's informativeness is governed by a functional of the true law that no base model can evade and that cannot be lower-bounded distribution-free; given a declared misreporting channel identified from record-linkage data, a nonvacuous lower bound on that floor becomes computable. On 5.2 million Texas records across seven base models spanning four decades, the layer attaches identical validity and certifies, on the vulnerable road users, a model-independent floor on set width that no base model beats, separating it from a remainder that stays bounded but distribution-free unidentifiable. The framework is released as an open-source package with theorem-level tests.
Maven Robotics emerged from stealth today with a $100 million Series A and active deployments.
Continuous monitoring of water surface elevation across river networks is critical for flood forecasting, water resource management, and understanding the global water cycle. Yet, the scarcity of in situ gauges across much of the globe constrains the development of reliable modeling frameworks. Satellite altimetry has the potential to alleviate this problem but its use is currently hindered by sparse temporal coverage. To this end, we introduce AmazonSWE, a dataset for training and evaluating large-scale spatiotemporal graph imputation methods that integrates processed satellite altimetry measurements from a range of sources, including the recent wide-swath SWOT sensor. The dataset covers over 19K river sections and 10 years (2016-2026) in the Amazon river basin, with in situ gauges held out for evaluation. Besides contributing a novel real-world use case with the potential for societal impact, AmazonSWE introduces significant technical challenges: with fewer than 1% of sections observed per day, the dataset is far sparser than existing imputation benchmarks, and its directed acyclic river topology is both structurally different from and larger than graphs in existing datasets. We show that prior spatiotemporal graph imputation methods are not adapted to this topology, scale and sparsity, and propose a simple bidirectional selective state space model that outperforms them by sampling connected subgraphs and flattening space and time into a single token sequence with topology-aware positional encodings. Compared to the state-of-the-art published method for SWOT-based WSE densification, which integrates statistics with physical modeling, our model reduces RMSE against in situ gauges by 18-39%, while producing predictions for every river section rather than only those with sufficient nearby satellite coverage.
Boundary representation (B-rep) is the standard format used by modern CAD systems for parametric 3D models. It turns out, the exact same solid can be represented by different B-reps: for example, two engineers using different operations, a geometry kernel rebuilding the file, and an export setting repartitioning faces will lead to different B-reps even though the underlying solid remains the same. We show that existing B-rep encoders are not robust to variation in the B-rep with the same solid on perturbations applied to standard benchmarks, naturally occurring variations inherent to CAD software, and differences in how designers model the same part via a human dataset we created in FreeCAD. The performance of popular B-rep encoders often collapses catastrophically. We propose the canonical region graph, an input representation whose nodes, features and coordinate frame are derived from the solid itself and show theoretical invariance guarantees on repartitioning and rigid motions. It matches the strongest baseline on standard benchmarks, and is stable under every perturbation we test.
We present EXYGEN (EXplore Your Graphs ENgine), a framework for knowledge graph (KG) understanding that enables conversational access to KGs at scale. We address two questions in sequence. First, how effectively can LLMs perform text-to-SPARQL generation given only automatically derived structured metadata and small graph samples, rather than task-specific fine-tuning? We integrate VoID descriptions and ShEx schemas into a retrieval-augmented generation (RAG) pipeline and ablate KG-derived context on the SciQA benchmark. Our best configuration -- combining ShEx schemas, retrieved triples, and example question-query pairs -- reaches an exact match of 0.419 on execution results without any LLM fine-tuning. We further find that lexical metrics such as F1 poorly predict query correctness, and that larger general-purpose LLMs can outperform smaller code-specialized ones once given sufficient context. Second, we ask how to generate the structured metadata that this method relies on from very large KGs, where KG metadata generation becomes computationally intractable. We introduce a predicate-coverage-aware parallel graph sampling strategy that preserves structural diversity while remaining computationally tractable. On OpenCitations Meta and GESIS, it retains high predicate coverage with minimal triple loss and reduces runtime by over 80x; on ORKG, sampling is not just faster but the only tractable path to obtain complete metadata. Together, these results show that structured schema context and lightweight prompting can substantially reduce reliance on fine-tuning for scalable conversational access to KGs, though closing the remaining gap to fully fine-tuned approaches will likely require reducing dependence on curated question-query exemplars -- whether through synthetic generation or an execution-feedback-driven approach -- and validating these findings beyond a single benchmark.
This interview has been lightly edited for length and clarity. Nick Statt: Hello and welcome to Decoder, Nilay’s show about big ideas and other problems.…
New image-text-to-text model. Tags: bailing_moe_v3_vl, image-text-to-text, conversational, custom_code, license:mit
New text-to-image model. Tags: diffusers, image-generation, image-editing, image-to-image, text-to-image, en, zh, arxiv:2609.03796
Early diagnosis of melanoma is critical for improving patient survival rates. However, accurately distinguishing melanoma from other skin lesions remains a significant clinical challenge due to the high visual similarity among lesion types and variability in image acquisition conditions. Artificial intelligence, particularly machine learning, has emerged as a promising tool to support dermatological diagnosis by automating feature extraction from medical images. Among the available approaches, convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have demonstrated strong performance in image classification tasks, making them well-suited for analyzing both dermatoscopic and histopathological images, given their ability to capture hierarchical visual patterns relevant to lesion characterization. Nevertheless, despite numerous pre-trained CNN architectures having been proposed, selecting the most appropriate one for a given imaging modality remains an open challenge. In this study, we evaluate pre-trained convolutional neural networks (CNNs) for skin lesion classification using dermatoscopic and histopathological image datasets. Experiments were conducted on the HAM10000, ISIC 2018, and CR-AI4SkIN datasets, evaluating the ResNet50, VGG16, VGG19, MobileNet, and InceptionV3 architectures under the same training protocol. The experimental evaluation showed that the models achieved accuracies ranging from 71% (InceptionV3 on ISIC 2018) to 84% (ResNet50 on HAM10000) on dermatoscopic images. For histopathological images, accuracies ranged from 72% (VGG19) to 83% (ResNet50) on the CR-AI4SkIN dataset. The results demonstrate that model performance differs between dermatoscopic and histopathological image modalities, showing that architectures exhibiting similar performance on dermatoscopic images exhibit different performance on histopathological data.
Low-resource multilingual text-to-speech (TTS) systems have expanded language coverage, but their robustness under complex text inputs remains insufficiently diagnosed. Existing evaluations mainly focus on naturalness, speaker similarity, and content consistency using regular test sentences, while providing limited insight into how multilingual TTS systems fail when handling challenging inputs such as numbers, dates, named entities, long sentences, code-switched expressions, and punctuation-related structures. This paper proposes a complex-text robustness diagnosis framework for low-resource multilingual TTS. We evaluate robustness from three dimensions: content consistency, language consistency, and generation stability. A multilingual robustness testing scheme is designed for Thai, Vietnamese, Swahili, and Indonesian, covering ordinary sentences and multiple types of complex text inputs. We further introduce automatic diagnostic metrics, including character error rate, language identification accuracy, and duration abnormal rate. To support input-level risk analysis before speech generation, we propose a lightweight Text Risk Score (TRS), which estimates synthesis risk from interpretable text features without manual annotation or model training. Experiments on three representative multilingual TTS systems, including OmniVoice, VoxCPM2, and MMS-TTS, show that complex text inputs expose systematic failure patterns that are not fully reflected by ordinary short-sentence evaluation. Different systems exhibit distinct vulnerabilities in number normalization, named entity handling, long-text generation, and code-switched input processing. Furthermore, TRS shows a positive correlation with content errors and duration abnormalities, demonstrating its usefulness as a low-cost pre-synthesis indicator for complex-text risk diagnosis in low-resource multilingual TTS.
Large language model (LLM) training is among the fastest-growing sources of electricity demand in modern data centers, and power availability is a primary bottleneck to continued AI infrastructure growth. Making the power consumption of these workloads flexible could unlock additional power for AI growth, limit increases in electricity prices, and improve the utilization of existing grid infrastructure. However, to realize this flexibility, we must first understand how the performance of training workloads changes when GPU power is reduced. This paper presents the first systematic characterization of job power elasticity (the sensitivity of throughput to power reductions) in LLM training. To quantify elasticity, we introduce the Power Flexibility Index (PFI), a normalized metric that quantifies the performance cost of power reductions and provides a control primitive for SLA-aware power flexibility. We collect data from 131 LLM training runs on H200 (plus 24 H200 validation runs and 34 matched H100 runs), including both dense and mixture-of-experts models, pretraining and fine-tuning tasks, and up to 32 GPUs. We find that LLM training jobs exhibit substantial but variable power elasticity, and we identify telemetry signals that predict PFI at runtime. Finally, we demonstrate that PFI-aware power allocation maximizes total tokens/second throughput under power constraints. Under a 30\% power reduction, PFI-aware power allocation recovers ~1.5k tokens/s per job, 63\% of the performance gap between an equal-weight allocation and an oracle with perfect information. Our results establish power elasticity as a measurable property of training jobs and provide a foundation for power-aware, grid-responsive AI infrastructure.
Generative Marginalization Models (MaMs) have been recently introduced as efficient neural sampling models for any-order autoregressive modelling of discrete distributions. By learning both the marginal and conditional probabilities of a persistent-block Gibbs sampler, MaMs enable fast posterior evaluation with a single neural network forward pass. While prior work has considered MaMs to be distinct from Generative Flow Networks (GFlowNets), a well-established paradigm for inference in discrete stochastic models, we show that they are equivalent. Then, we also extend MaMs' sampling strategy to non-autoregressive generative processes. In particular, we describe an automatic criterion for full-state rejuvenation of the Gibbs sampler, derived from the Gelman-Rubin statistic, which plays a key role in speeding up learning convergence. Our experiments show that our method, called Particle GFlowNets, markedly accelerates training in large combinatorial spaces.
Commercial text-to-image systems silently revise user prompts before generating images, a step users typically cannot disable or even see. Yet, existing audits of cultural bias examine only the final images and treat generation as a single pipeline, so they cannot tell where the bias originates. We introduce WORLDVIEW, a multilingual benchmark of 8,960 prompts across 15 languages and 31 language-context pairings. Using it, we audit the revision layer in three systems (DALL-E-3, Imagen-4, GPT-Image-1.5) through a three-step analysis of how heavily it marks each cultural context, whether it flattens that context into a narrow vocabulary, and whether that vocabulary is stereotypical. Relative to a no-context English baseline, the US is the least-marked context, while non-Western and non-Anglophone contexts are marked far more heavily, flattened into narrow vocabularies applied across topically diverse prompts, and reduced to recognizable cultural stereotypes. Comparing images from original versus revised prompts on models without a revision layer, we identify the layer itself as a previously undocumented, causal source of this stereotyping. To locate cultural bias, and fix it, we must audit the system as deployed, not the model alone.
Reliable, low-latency perception is crucial for Formula Student Driverless vehicles, yet many existing pipelines rely on deep learning and multi-sensor fusion, often requiring GPU acceleration. This paper presents a lightweight LiDAR-only perception pipeline tailored for CPU execution, combining ground removal, IMU-based motion compensation, DBSCAN clustering, and geometric feature-based Random Forest classification. Feature importance analysis reduced the model input from 12 to 7 features while preserving performance. Evaluated on 2,371 labeled clusters collected from real FSD events, the pipeline achieves an F1-score of 98.33% and an end-to-end runtime of 3.13 ms on CPU-only hardware. The released dataset, labeling tool, and trained models provide a practical and reproducible baseline for other resource-constrained autonomous racing teams.
