The impact of climate variability on food production has led to the creation of various forecasting models that uses machine learning (ML), numerical weather predictors (NWP) or a hybrid of ML-NWP models to identify structural and physical relationships between meteorological drivers and crop growth, in order to predict crop yield. Droughts, for example the 2012 Midwestern US (Corn Belt) drought, are extreme events that affect crop production and test the limits of these forecasting models. Using 16 meteorological drivers as predictors, we compare ML (non-deep learning) and deep learning forecasting models to predict the county-level corn yield for the extreme drought year, 2012. This forecasting problem is characterized by a dissimilarity between the feature distributions of the training and test data, where the meteorological conditions of the extreme drought year fall outside the range of historically observed values. Additionally, the dataset consists of spatial and temporal irregularities where counties with missing yields introduce spatial sparsity and the use of only a subset of daily values per year introduce temporal sparsity. To overcome this, we use sample weighting and feature selection as modifications to improve our forecasting models. These modifications lead to an improvement for ML models; however, the deep learning model VITA shows little to no improvement. While VITA outperforms the ML models with or without modifications, our current study sheds light on the effect of dissimilarity between train and test feature distributions on forecasting models, compares deep learning versus non-deep learning models, and introduces modifications that are effective for non-deep learning models.
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Online log anomaly detection is critical for maintaining the reliability of large-scale computing systems. Although recent language model-based log anomaly detectors achieve strong detection performance, their confidence estimates remain poorly calibrated. We show that these detectors frequently assign excessive confidence to incorrect predictions, particularly for anomalous logs under severe class imbalance. Moreover, confidence on erroneous predictions remains persistently high even when conventional calibration metrics indicate good calibration, creating a critical reliability gap for operational monitoring systems. To address this issue, we propose Log Reconstruction and Distance (LoRD), a lightweight post-hoc calibration framework for reliable log anomaly detection. LoRD learns prediction-route-specific reliability models from latent representations of correctly classified validation samples and estimates prediction reliability through route-wise reconstruction distances. Based on the estimated reliability, LoRD selectively recalibrates high-risk predictions to suppress overconfident errors while preserving reliable predictions. Extensive experiments on four large-scale log benchmark datasets and multiple language model-based detectors demonstrate that LoRD consistently improves confidence reliability and substantially reduces overconfident anomaly-related errors without sacrificing anomaly detection performance.
Apple’s leaked camera-equipped AirPods might avoid the privacy pitfalls of other AI wearables by preventing users from recording photos and videos.
State-of-the-art model-based reinforcement learning methods learn neural world models that allow policy improvement by planning in a latent space, without assumptions on the structure of the underlying environment. While expressive, these models are generally task-dependent: they learn uninterpretable latent representations that are tied to the training task and thus hard to generalize to new tasks. In this work, we present a novel world model formulation where the reward prediction only depends on a subset of structured, symbolic components of the whole latent state. Decoupling observation reconstruction and reward prediction allows us to learn world models that can adapt zero-shot, i.e. without further environment interactions, to new reward functions defined over the same symbolic state space. We discuss the main advantages and challenges of learning these neurosymbolic world models and demonstrate the strong generalisation properties of our approach over purely neural methods.
Tabular Foundation Models (TFMs) increasingly rely on in-context learning, where a model receives labelled examples at inference time and predicts labels for new inputs without updating its weights. Existing TFMs are typically trained on either massive synthetic corpora or very large collections of real datasets. In contrast, we show that surprisingly strong transfer can emerge from self-supervised pre-training on just a single real table. In this setting, we also find that tables tend to be either broadly useful or broadly poor regardless of downstream prediction task, and that the strongest predictor of usefulness is the number of features rather than the number of instances. This leads to a task-centric interpretation of tabular pre-training: the number and the quality of tasks are essential for the pre-training of TFMs. We show that the same task-centric perspective can help corpus design at scale: fine-grained column-level pre-processing consistently improves downstream performance, while no improvements are observed when we filter or deduplicate at the dataset level. Finally, we offer a new perspective for how TFMs generalize: we believe that tabular in-context generalization is largely retrieval-based, and good models are those that learn to identify relevant examples in the provided context and aggregate them well. The mechanics of TFMs have been relatively understudied; our task-centric, retrieval-based perspective offers a new framework to guide future model and corpus design.
In the Code World Model paradigm an LLM synthesizes an executable world model that a classical planner searches, and the model is accepted when it reproduces sampled transitions. We ask what that acceptance certifies in continuous control. We define the pipeline's danger as an expected risk and isolate its exact factor: the probability that N i.i.d. gate rollouts all miss a critical event of probability r is exactly (1-r)^N; an independent acceptance sample adds its budget to the exponent. On three hybrid instruments the accepted mode-blind model is exploited: the planner is pinned at the mode boundary at a regret of nearly the whole attainable return. We prove a localization budget, valid at boundary points: models with Lipschitz constant at most L differing by eta at a point disagree above tolerance eps on a region of volume at least kappa((eta-eps)/L)^(d+m); the discontinuous reset modes studied pay no such budget. With real LLM synthesis, GPT-5.x repairs an omitted 1D clamp in 105 of 111 mode-containing draws -- every attempt exact on 50 of 56 instrument-stream blocks (95% CI [0.781, 0.960]). On 2D regions no artifact recovers the rule (0/156); eight targeted interventions leave the failure in place, and positive controls locate it: a located rule is not induced, while given form and location the constants follow exactly. A version-space certificate proves identification is class-relative: at the widest dose the declared fit succeeds in 20/20 blocks and every sample-consistent circle is within tolerance in 18/20. We prove a class of entry rules exactly consistent with every sample yet harmless at play, so identifiability is a measurable property of the instrument. Re-scoring all 1034 artifacts on independent samples confirms acceptance certifies sample consistency and no more: where the gate is provably informative it covers about two percent of the exploited planner's queries.
Large Language Models (LLMs) demonstrate remarkable multi-hop reasoning capabilities over long contexts, yet the internal mechanisms enabling these distant cognitive leaps remain poorly understood. Traditional attention-based interpretability often fails to capture true semantic proximity due to routing artifacts like attention sinks. In this paper, we bypass attention weights to directly analyze the dynamic geometry of the hidden state manifold, proving that deep LLM latent spaces natively organize into Small-World networks. By sparsifying the continuous similarity matrices of long-context representations into unweighted graphs, we trace the connectivity between highly disjoint semantic anchors across two distinct architectures. Our findings reveal a sharp topological phase transition: while early syntactic layers remain entirely fractured, deep reasoning layers abruptly compress massive conceptual distances into highly navigable pathways strictly bounded by the "Six Degrees of Separation" limit (=< 6 semantic hops). Furthermore, we demonstrate the practical efficacy of this framework by applying it to zero-shot hallucination detection within Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG) using the RAGognize dataset. We show that factually grounded generations maintain structural integrity with their source context (approximately 3 hops), whereas hallucinations induce severe topological collapse. Ultimately, this work mathematically formalizes how transformers execute abstract reasoning and provides a novel, strictly geometric signature for evaluating factual reliability.
Recent research has leveraged Large Language Models (LLMs) to enhance Automated Feature Engineering (AutoFE) through semantic descriptions and trajectory-based prompting. However, there exist two challenges that limit their applicability and scalability in long-horizon optimization: (1) semantic metadata is unavailable in many practical settings, and (2) trajectory accumulation increases the risk of exceeding the context window, while without it, the generation process can become unstable, leading to becoming stuck in the local optima and a high duplicate rate of generated features. To this end, we propose a SHAP-enhanced Implicit-trajectory Generation for Metadata-free AutoFE (SIGMA), a scalable constant-context optimization framework. SIGMA leverages SHAP values to provide task-aware signals for guiding group feature generation instead of semantic information. In addition, we adopt an EXposed-feature Implicit Trajectory (EXIT) approach, where the exposed features in the prompt implicitly represent the trajectory. Empirical results demonstrate that SIGMA achieves performance comparable to the state-of-the-art (SOTA) LLM baselines with a nearly constant prompt length. Notably, EXIT significantly reduces the duplicate ratio of generated features from 37.2% to 6.8%. At the same time, SIGMA matches traditional SOTA performance with only 5.4 features on average, demonstrating substantial efficiency gains in feature utilization.
Large language models can generate executable programs, which makes it possible to search directly over procedural content generators rather than individual levels. We study this approach in Sokoban, Zelda, Dangerous Dave, and Lode Runner. Each run evolves complete Python generators through language-model mutation and crossover. We introduce Continual Abstraction Discovery, or CAD, which extracts reusable primitives from high-fitness programs into a run-specific helper module. A 2x2 experiment crosses CAD with access to a fixed hand-written domain API. The completed data set contains 160 complete runs, with at least ten 50-generation runs in every cell. CAD raises mean final best fitness in all eight domain and API comparisons. Across all CAD runs, learned libraries are adopted by most later programs and repeatedly rediscover validation, reachability, and structural utilities. These results support that discovering reusable primitives improves evolutionary program search for content generators.
Reinforcement learning with verifiable rewards (RLVR) improves the reasoning capabilities of large language models but relies on costly rollout exploration. Assigning the same exploration budget to samples with different difficulty levels is inefficient: easy samples may receive redundant rollouts, whereas difficult but learnable samples may receive too little exploration. Existing adaptive schedulers address this mismatch through curriculum-based sample selection or non-uniform rollout allocation based on estimated sample difficulty. However, obtaining reliable online difficulty estimates remains challenging: dedicated probing adds substantial generation overhead, whereas history-based estimators face a cold start with no initial observations and stale feedback, and typically ignore relations among samples. To address these limitations, we propose a plug-and-play graph-based online difficulty estimator that shares rollout feedback across related samples and continuously updates their difficulty estimates, mitigating cold start and staleness without dedicated probing. Specifically, we first construct a difficulty-aware sample graph based on semantic and reasoning similarities. Based on this graph, we introduce latent difficulty states and use a Potts prior to encourage neighboring samples to share the same state. We then employ a state-level Beta-Binomial model to aggregate the rollout outcomes associated with each state. Finally, we use an online mean-field variational algorithm to continuously update the latent-state assignments and state-level difficulty as new feedback arrives. Our framework can be integrated into sample-selection and rollout-allocation schedulers, enabling difficulty-adaptive exploration without dedicated probing. Experiments across multiple base models, RL schedulers, and benchmarks demonstrate that our framework achieves better performance.
Small language models can grade open-ended examination answers as reliably as substantially more expensive models when they grade against an explicit rubric. We test this claim as the design principle behind any-to-bench: a frontier model reads source documents once, at ingestion, to extract each question and its rubric; lower-cost models then perform all repeated grading work. We evaluate six cost-efficient model configurations from two model families at three reasoning-effort levels. Each configuration answers 24 open-ended examination questions, and each also grades every answer sheet three times, yielding 3,456 per-question grades. Scores depend overwhelmingly on the answer being graded: answer identity explains 95.6% of score variance, whereas judge identity explains only 0.2%. Raising a writer's reasoning effort moves earned scores by as much as 0.143 of full marks, while raising a judge's reasoning effort moves assigned scores by at most 0.006. Six frontier-tier judges, added as a check, reproduce these scores and are no more reliable as a panel. Two ablations then decompose the rubric on the same questions and answers. Removing its criteria and levels while keeping the official answer changes nothing measurable. Removing the official answer as well collapses reliability (ICC 0.888 to 0.628), inflates scores, and makes judge reasoning effort matter again. The rubric is what decouples grading from judge intelligence, and within the rubric the official answer does nearly all the work. We find no evidence of length preference or same-family preference under rubric-anchored grading.
Financial time series exhibit non-stationary and heterogeneous statistical properties, making change-point detection challenging because no single unsupervised algorithm performs consistently across assets and market regimes. Conventional workflows consequently depend heavily on expert-driven model selection, feature design, and hyperparameter tuning, limiting their scalability and adaptability. We propose EvoTS-Agent, a validation-guided self-evolving LLM agent for autonomous financial time-series change-point detection. EvoTS-Agent first performs curated exploratory data analysis to characterize dataset properties and initialize candidate detection models. It then evolves executable experiment trajectories through three complementary operators: Revision exploits the current best solution, Alternative Strategy explores fundamentally different modeling directions when progress stagnates, and Recombination synthesizes complementary evidence from high-performing trajectories. Validation feedback guides trajectory evolution throughout the search, enabling the agent to adapt its detection pipeline to the statistical characteristics of each dataset while preserving reliable optimization. Experiments across four benchmark datasets demonstrate that EvoTS-Agent consistently outperforms existing LLM-based agents while maintaining a 100\% execution success rate across all evaluated backbone LLMs.
Groups routinely complete projects that no single member can plan, execute, or verify alone. We propose a formal model of this phenomenon, Collective Counterfactual Planning (CCP), in which the binding limitation on each agent is neither capability, knowledge, nor observability, but representational geometry: each agent perceives the state, conceives moves, consents to actions, and certifies goal requirements only through a projection onto an agent-specific subspace of a common task space. Four gates jointly determine whether a team can reach a conjunctive goal and legitimately recognize that it has done so: the exogenous implementation coalitions required to perform each action, together with three representational gates -- conception, consent, and task-relative verification qualification. We define the Collective Counterfactual Solvability (CCS) problem, separating geometric feasibility, executable attainment, and validated completion. The results expose a positive-negative duality. Iterated cross-agent relay can unlock a solution that no one-shot pooling of individual plans contains, but any goal requirement depending essentially on the subspace dark to the entire team is unverifiable and therefore not validly completable, even when the trajectory accidentally attains it. Memoryless and audited consent further constrain different objects -- action directions versus cumulative trajectory states -- and neither dominates the other. A four-step exhaustive horizon-bounded solvability scheme is sound and complete under exact representation of the relay closure; restricted implementations remain sound on returned plans but need not be complete. The model gives one geometry for sequential mutual enabling, competent execution of steps whose purpose is invisible to the executor, forced sub-teaming at expertise boundaries, and completion that cannot be validly declared.
Recent advances in AI have revolutionized speech processing, yet effective speech understanding requires discerning not just what is said, but how it is said. Speech Sentiment Analysis plays a critical role in decoding these paralinguistic cues for diverse real-world applications such as recruitment and customer service. However, existing Speech Sentiment Analysis research faces two primary limitations. First, dominant approaches rely on text-centric pipelines that cascade Automatic Speech Recognition with text analysis. This process inevitably discards essential acoustic features like prosody and tone, failing to capture attitudinal meanings in acoustically ambiguous utterances. Second, current benchmarks suffer from a mismatch in label granularity, prioritizing basic emotions (e.g., happy, sad) over the nuanced interpersonal stances (e.g., confident, impatient) necessary for social sensitivity. To address these limitations, we propose a novel dataset, SpeechSense, for fine-grained speech sentiment analysis. Specifically, we define a specialized 8-class taxonomy of interpersonal stances detectable primarily through prosodic cues beyond lexical content alone. We then construct a curated dataset based on this taxonomy, built from high-fidelity speech synthesis and rigorous human validation. Comprehensive experiments across multi-modal LLMs, text-only LLMs, and speech encoders demonstrate that models with acoustic access consistently outperform text-only baselines. These results empirically validate the primacy of acoustic cues in detecting subtle speaker attitudes, highlighting the necessity of SpeechSense. Dataset and supplementary materials are available at https://github.com/Sher13cked/SpeechSense.
Robust Markov decision processes optimize one policy against a set of plausible transition functions. This can be conservative when the unknown dynamics are fixed and become partially identifiable after deployment. We study adaptive policy portfolios: finite sets of memoryless randomized policies synthesized offline and paired with a lightweight online selector. Robust regret is a natural measure of portfolio quality: for each plausible environment, it measures the loss of the best portfolio member relative to the policy that would have been optimal had that environment been known. Related regret objectives were studied by Ghavamzadeh et al. (2016) with an emphasis on approximations and relaxations for safe policy improvement. We give a complexity-theoretic account of portfolio certification and synthesis. Certifying a given portfolio is {R}-complete already for deterministic portfolios in acyclic (s,a)-rectangular RMDPs. Synthesizing a portfolio of unary-bounded size is {R}-complete for general rational polytopes, even with fixed discount and acyclic dynamics. The single-policy case is already hard, both combinatorially and algebraically. Finally, we present an offline portfolio construction that is amenable to runtime specialization.
In the Lifelong Multi-Agent Path Finding (L-MAPF) problem, agents must repeatedly move from one destination to another while avoiding obstacles and inter-agent collisions. Widely regarded as one of the highest-performing solutions to this problem is the Rolling-Horizon Collision Resolution (RHCR) framework. However, commensurate with its quality solutions, it incurs a computational cost that limits its applicability to even modest agent counts. In this paper, leveraging theoretical methods from the Locally Interdependent Multi-Agent MDP literature, we first theoretically prove the near-optimality of RHCR in a discounted MDP formulation of the L-MAPF problem. Then, we leverage these results to naturally motivate an extended framework called Group Decentralized RHCR (GD-RHCR) which incorporates a group decentralized structure that partitions agents based on a transitive communication scheme and plans for each partition of agents in parallel. We show that both RHCR and GD-RHCR achieve similar exponentially close to optimal guarantees, establishing a theoretical duality between the time based restrictions performed by vanilla RHCR and the additional space based partitioning performed by GD-RHCR. Lastly, we show that across varying maps, GD-RHCR is able to attain high throughput that scales into higher agent counts while maintaining a significantly lower per plan cost.
Appendicitis is one of the most common abdominal emergencies worldwide and requires prompt diagnosis and treatment to prevent life-threatening conditions. However, accurately differentiating complicated cases, such as perforation or abscess formation, from uncomplicated appendicitis remains a significant clinical challenge. Among other methods, ultrasound is a safer and more cost-efficient diagnostic technique because of the lack of radiation exposure. In this research, an advanced system capable of automatically detecting complicated appendicitis from ultrasound images was developed. A dataset consisting of 4679 ultrasound images with 5 classes, namely perforated, abscess, acute, appendicolith, and normal, was used for the proposed model training and testing. Four pretrained deep learning models, DenseNet201, InceptionV3, ConvNextTiny, and VGG19, have been employed for detecting and classifying complicated appendicitis. In the initial configuration, InceptionV3 achieved the second highest accuracy, with a value of 69.21%. Owing to suboptimal performance with raw images, further optimization techniques, including image preprocessing, hyperparameter tuning, model fine-tuning, and image sharpening, were applied. These enhancements significantly improved the model's performance, with an accuracy of 95.58% for InceptionV3. The model performance is then explained with gradient-weighted class activation mapping (Grad-CAM), which creates a heatmap of the regions responsible for the model's prediction of the infected areas. This could make crosschecking with experts much easier.