Residual Correlation as a Diagnostic for Joint-Uncertainty Gains from GP Coregionalisation
27d
- Publicado
- Coletado
Autores
Fangqin Zhou, Joaquin Vanschoren
Categorias
In multi-target regression, correlated targets are often coupled through multi-output Gaussian processes with an intrinsic model of coregionalisation (GP-ICM), assuming that sharing statistical strength improves overall performance. In practice, the benefits are inconsistent. Across the settings studied, we find that the main benefit of coregionalisation is joint uncertainty quantification rather than point prediction. Raw target correlation does not predict when coupling helps; in the separable GP-ICM settings studied here, residual correlation, the cross-target dependence left unexplained by independent per-target predictors, is the strongest predictor of joint-uncertainty gains. We introduce a lightweight diagnostic, D_{logdet}=-{1}{2}R_{res}, which represents the idealised joint negative log-likelihood (NLL) gain from modelling a full rather than diagonal residual covariance and is computable from independent GPs alone. Across a controlled synthetic study, 16 multi-target benchmarks, and frozen transformer and convolutional neural network representations for keypoint regression, point prediction remains largely unchanged (ΔR^20). In contrast, D_{logdet} strongly predicts observed ICM NLL improvements (ρ_s=-0.83, p<0.001), outperforming heuristics such as the feature-to-sample ratio. We also propose Residual-ICM, which preserves independent marginal variances while adding residual-correlation structure to the joint covariance. Residual-ICM achieves the best average joint NLL among the compared methods, while the diagnostic indicates when covariance coupling is likely to be useful. The diagnostic is specific to global Gaussian residual dependence, the structure captured by separable coregionalisation.
O overfeed.news indexa e aponta. Publicamos um trecho curto — o artigo completo fica em arXiv AI Papers.
Mais de arXiv AI Papers
Entre para seguir esta fonte
LongZero: Enhancing Long-Context Reasoning in LLMs from Zero Data
Reinforcement learning (RL) is an effective way to strengthen the long-context reasoning of large language models (LLMs), but it needs training data that are long, diverse, challenging, and verifiable. Human annotation of such data is expensive, naturally occurring data are too scarce to sustain RL, and existing synthesis methods depend on external corpora or stronger teacher models, which become harder to obtain as the trained models get stronger. Recently, RL from zero data, in which a model learns from tasks it proposes itself, has achieved excellent performance, but existing methods target short-context tasks. Therefore, we propose LongZero, a method that lets an LLM improve its own long-context reasoning without any external data. Instead of writing questions and answers over existing documents, LongZero first has the model synthesize the question and answer with its supporting evidence in a compact structured form, and only then separately expands the evidence into a long multi-document context. LongZero combines these self-written multi-hop reasoning tasks with self-written multi-round retrieval tasks and trains the model with GRPO. We evaluate LongZero on two LLMs across five long-context reasoning benchmarks and compare it with RL on data synthesized from external corpora. Experimental results show that LongZero can generalize to real tasks, and outperforms both baselines, suggesting a viable and promising path to improving long-context reasoning of LLMs.
Think Harder Where It Matters: Item-Level Adaptive Recursion for Sequential Recommendation
Existing sequential recommenders usually allocate a fixed computational budget to every item in a user's interaction history, regardless of the item's contribution to the final prediction. We challenge this de facto design with two diagnostic findings. (1) Non-uniform computational need: items within the same sequence vary drastically in how much computation they require. Most converge after shallow processing while a critical minority only stabilizes at full depth. (2) Suboptimality of fixed allocation: given oracle access to the target item, a non-uniform depth assignment consistently outranks the fixed one, indicating that existing uniform computation both wastes capacity on already-converged items and sacrifices overall recommendation quality. These observations motivate a shift from fixed-depth computation to item-level adaptive reasoning. To this end, we propose LoopRec. LoopRec recursively applies a single weight-shared block and introduces a lightweight gate at each recursion boundary that makes a binary exit-or-continue decision for every item independently. Items whose representations have sufficiently matured exit early, while those requiring deeper reasoning continue to subsequent recursions. This design converts the fixed global depth into a learned, per-item property without auxiliary depth labels, and is readily adaptable to diverse backbone architectures. Extensive experiments on public benchmarks with four backbone families demonstrate that LoopRec consistently outperforms matched fixed-depth counterparts. Further analysis reveals that LoopRec's learned allocation exhibits interpretable patterns aligned with our post-hoc oracle analysis: lower-frequency items and more recent interactions naturally receive deeper computation. Our code is available at https://github.com/Elpmis117/LoopRec.
PhysiCalWorld: In-Context Physics Calibration for World Models
Existing world models typically perceive a scene through current visual frame or a narrow history window. However, these observations may not reveal the physics properties that determine transition dynamics, such as an object's mass distribution, joint damping, or surface friction. Without calibrating these physics factors for world models, predictions tend to regress toward an empirical prior and induce severe drift in novel test scenes. To this end, we propose PhysiCalWorld, which calibrates action-conditioned world models to the instance-specific dynamics via in-context prompting, without fine-tuning or analytical physics modeling. Our method encodes an exploratory interaction clip collected within the test scene into a compact physics descriptor token, which grounds subsequent predictions in the scene's actual physical behavior. PhysiCalWorld is trained end-to-end with the latent prediction loss alone, without physics labels. At inference time, the descriptor token is extracted once and can be reused across rollouts with negligible compute overhead. We evaluate PhysiCalWorld across four environments covering diverse physics variations and show that it substantially improves rollout prediction accuracy and visual planning success rate. The learned descriptors also form a physically structured latent space and generalize beyond the physics ranges seen during training.
A Quasipolynomial Algorithm for _Contractions
We give an algorithm for computing an -approximate fixed point of any d-dimensional nonexpansion with respect to the _norm in time (1/)^{O(^2 d)}. At its core, our method uses a boosting argument to geometrically shrink a search region. Among other consequences, our algorithm implies that simple stochastic games can be solved in quasipolynomial time.