When Tomorrow Becomes Today: Self-Evolving Policies for Agentic Time-Series Forecasting

Agentic time series forecasting concerns systems whose underlying mechanisms evolve, making the relative effectiveness of numerical models, reasoning strategies, and intervention rules inherently time-varying. Consequently, a time series agent must adapt the forecasts it produces and the orchestration policy that determines which components to trust and how to coordinate them. The deployment process naturally provides supervision for this adaptation as forecast horizons elapse and realized targets reveal the effectiveness of earlier decisions. Committing all numerical expert forecasts and candidate agent paths before target observation allows each realized outcome to evaluate the entire alternative set, providing delayed feedback without additional annotation. However, existing time series agents primarily incorporate prior experience through forecast refinement, reflection, or retrieval, without systematically converting realized outcomes into persistent updates to the joint orchestration policy governing later origins. To exploit this delayed feedback systematically, we introduce TimEvolve, a frozen-backbone time series agent that converts each realized outcome into persistent joint updates of expert trust, agent path selection, and intervention strength. A temporally ordered predict, reveal, and update protocol applies this feedback to subsequent forecasts. Experiments across eight Time-MMD domains show that TimEvolve achieves the best average MSE and MAE ranks among fifteen methods and the lowest errors on both metrics in seven domains. These results demonstrate the value of learning forecasting policies from the futures encountered during deployment.

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arXiv AI Papers·ontem☆

Sensorimotor Alignment: A Platonic Proxy for Embodied Policy Success↗

Robotic foundation models are typically evaluated through costly closed-loop rollouts, which motivates cheap offline proxies for model capability. The Platonic Representation Hypothesis (PRH) suggests that as representations improve, different modalities such as vision and language converge toward a shared statistical model of reality. We ask whether motion trajectories form another such modality: as embodied models become more capable, should their sensory representations converge toward the structure of physical motion? To examine this, we propose Sensorimotor Alignment (S^2), a training-free offline metric that measures how well a model's sensory representation aligns with the geometry of physical motion. We find that S^2 correlates positively with downstream robot task success across embodied model families, making it a low-cost offline proxy for prioritizing models before closed-loop evaluation. S^2 can also identify promising vision-language model (VLM) backbones even before costly fine-tuning into vision-language-action models (VLAs). Beyond this correlation, S^2 offers representation-level explanations for phenomena observed in VLAs and world action models (WAMs). With S^2, we extend PRH to embodied models and make sensorimotor alignment empirically measurable, offering insight into why an embodied model succeeds beyond its closed-loop success rate.

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arXiv AI Papers·ontem☆

Direct Pass@k Optimization for Thought Pruning: Balancing Quality and Diversity in Test-Time Reasoning↗

Test-time scaling has emerged as a key inference strategy for reasoning models, where a model generates a large number of candidate solutions in the hope of finding at least one correct solution. Running all candidate solutions to completion can be computationally demanding, so recent work prunes the candidate pool after generating only a short prefix, committing further computation only to the surviving candidates. Existing pruning strategies divide broadly into two categories: Quality-based methods assign a score to each partial solution and discard those predicted to ultimately lead to an incorrect final solution, while diversity-based methods select partial solutions that follow different reasoning trajectories and are therefore likely to cover different final solutions. The tension between these two objectives is an instance of exploration versus exploitation, yet little to no prior work on pruning exposes this trade-off directly, let alone optimizes it. In this paper, we introduce a pruning procedure that addresses this trade-off directly by optimizing pass@k over the selected solution pool. In particular, it chooses the pool to maximize the probability that at least one of its partial solutions, when continued to completion, yields a correct answer. Because this objective simultaneously rewards high-quality partial solutions and penalizes redundancy among them, quality and diversity are naturally balanced by the criterion itself rather than through separate ad-hoc design choices. On eight open-weight reasoning models, our method outperforms existing quality-based and diversity-based pruning strategies. The gains are particularly pronounced when the pruning procedure keeps a moderate number of partial solutions for continued generation, highlighting the value of directly balancing quality and diversity during pruning.

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arXiv AI Papers·ontem☆

Phase Transition from Random Features to Fully Trainable Networks↗

Constructing accurate and computationally tractable approximation spaces is a fundamental task in scientific computing. Partially trainable neural networks bridge fixed random features and fully adaptive representations. This paper quantifies a phase transition pattern in approximation bounds and observes analogous behavior in training errors: a rapid but smooth initial improvement followed by diminishing returns, with a sharper transition under greater initialization mismatch. Under polynomial spectral decay with exponent α>1 and leverage compatibility, we establish a squared L_2 approximation rate {O}((κ_P(m/δ)/m)^α) for two-layer networks of width m and trainable proportion P, where κ_P=(P/κ_1^*+(1-P)/κ_0^*)^{-1}. The bound holds uniformly over the unit ball of a reproducing kernel Hilbert space (RKHS) with probability at least 1-δ. The constants κ_0^* and κ_1^* quantify the fixed and trainable groups' sampling mismatches relative to the target RKHS. For spherical biased-ReLU features in dimension d, we verify these assumptions with α=(d+2)/(d-1) and κ_0^*=4{2}τ(d+1)/d for initialization scale τ1, and κ_1^*=1 under ridge leverage sampling. For d=5 and τ=10, a trainable proportion of approximately 4.1\% captures 90\% of the reduction in the approximation bound from P=0 to P=1. A structured three-layer example illustrates how a few trainable first-layer neurons exploit fixed downstream blocks through nonlinear composition. Numerical experiments across diverse settings, including networks with up to 15 layers, exhibit similar phase transitions in training errors.

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arXiv AI Papers·ontem☆

Reliable AI-Assisted Decisions via Selective Auditing↗

We consider online monitoring of an AI system that produces a sequence of decisions. At each round, the system outputs a proposed decision together with a confidence score estimating the trustworthiness of the decision. The decision and confidence score need not be produced by the same model: for example, one agent may propose a decision, while a separate verifier agent evaluates it and outputs a correctness or safety score. Based on this information, we must decide whether to accept the AI decision automatically or consult an expert, such as a human auditor, who reviews the proposal and either accepts or corrects it. We formulate this task as an online constrained optimization problem in which the goal is to minimize the frequency of expert auditing while guaranteeing that the fraction of AI errors that go unaudited stays below a user-defined threshold. We derive a family of algorithms with provable error-control guarantees with no assumptions, including a method that is optimally efficient: it asymptotically attains the best achievable auditing rate for both adversarial and i.i.d. data streams. Experiments on screening harmful requests to large language models, qualitative text annotation, and data labeling show that our methods achieve valid error control in practice while substantially reducing the need for human auditing compared to baselines.

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