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arXiv AI Papers

LTV-CTDNet: Compositional Turning Decomposition for Short-Term Turning-Movement Forecasting

Short-term turning-movement forecasts can support signal control and corridor operations, but unconstrained neural networks may produce physically impossible negative counts or outputs that are not explicitly tied to an approach-demand total. This study introduces the Linear Temporal-Variable Compositional Turning Decomposition Network (LTV-CTDNet), a forecasting framework designed to combine competitive accuracy with structurally admissible outputs. LTV-CTDNet was evaluated using seven months of 15-minute LiDAR observations from eight monitored corridor locations in Nashville, Tennessee. Its lightweight encoder combines recent turning-movement history, weekly time-slot embeddings, and location embeddings. The Compositional Turning Decomposition framework separately predicts nonnegative approach totals and within-approach turning proportions, then reconstructs movement forecasts from these components. Among the evaluated predefined configurations, LTV-CTDNet achieved a movement-level MAE of 1.8189 and RMSE of 3.8072. Its accuracy gains over the strongest sequence models were modest, but it produced no negative forecasts, while unconstrained learned models generated negative values in approximately 10.6% to 29.2% of raw forecast cells. The framework enforces nonnegative outputs and exact agreement between each model-predicted approach total and the sum of its component movements by construction, providing directly interpretable forecasts without clipping or coherence correction.

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arXiv AI Papers

Do System One Decisions Add Up? A Study of Probabilistic Coherence

A decision model can give probabilities that sum to one for every question yet disagree with itself when the same decision is broken into smaller steps. We study this form of probabilistic coherence in Jev and the English Laya checkpoint, using 2,500 matched examples per system across TREC, CLINC150, and MASSIVE. Across 72,000 classification questions, we compare direct fine-label predictions with broad-category probabilities and predictions reconstructed through those categories. Both systems show substantial disagreement: mean category-level total variation ranges from 0.219 to 0.349 for Jev and from 0.424 to 0.689 for Laya, on a scale where zero means exact agreement. The consequences differ sharply. On CLINC150, reconstruction reduces Jev's accuracy by 22.9 percentage points (paired 95% bootstrap interval: [-24.9, -20.9]) and improves Laya's by 21.3 points ([18.0, 24.5]). The same directions hold across all three datasets, with all six unadjusted accuracy-change intervals excluding zero. Improved accuracy can also accompany less reliable confidence: on MASSIVE, Laya gains 9.2 accuracy points while its expected calibration error rises from 0.046 to 0.124. Error analysis identifies both broad-category mistakes and within-category confusions. These findings show why decision systems need joint evaluation of accuracy, confidence calibration, and probability coherence in the workflow used by an application.

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arXiv AI Papers

Understanding and Exploiting Anisotropy in Post-Training

LLM post-training combines supervised fine-tuning (SFT), a mode-covering forward-KL objective, with reinforcement learning (RL), a mode-seeking reverse-KL objective. Frequency-weighted likelihood training leaves a well-known signature: anisotropy, in which a few residual channels carry disproportionately large activations. Anisotropy is widely documented and usually treated as a defect, yet its function and its interaction with post-training remain unclear. We first analyze it. A label-free outlier rule isolates about 5\% of residual channels that are essential for language modeling: removing them raises perplexity from 10 to over 10^6, versus 35 for count-matched random channels. Yet they barely distinguish correct from incorrect reasoning. SFT reshapes them, whereas RL leaves them largely intact and adapts the complementary channels. These channels therefore form the model's coherence substrate, and reasoning adaptation happens elsewhere. We then exploit this. SphereGate learns one bounded gain per residual channel on a frozen backbone. Its activation-weighted gradients provably limit movement of high-energy coherence channels and leave the remaining channels free. With 0.1M trainable parameters, SphereGate outperforms parameter-efficient baselines by 2.0--7.3 points on MATH-500 across Qwen2.5 (0.5B--7B) and Llama-3-8B, is comparable or exceeds full-model GRPO. Anisotropy is not a defect but a division of labor that post-training can exploit.

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arXiv AI Papers

CT-OPD: Counterfactual Trace On-Policy Distillation for Diffusion Vision-Language Models

Diffusion vision-language models generate answers by gradually resolving masked tokens, making accurate conditional prediction in partially resolved states central to post-training. Masking completed answers yields coherent contexts and targets, but prescribed masks do not reflect the model's reveal decisions. Its trajectories capture these decisions, yet their provisional visible tokens can conflict with the target response. Outcome-based reinforcement learning follows these trajectories but provides only response-level feedback, which loses contrast when sampled rewards tie. To align coherent token-level supervision with the model's reveal decisions, we introduce Counterfactual Trace On-Policy Distillation (CT-OPD), which combines completed teacher responses with trajectory masks from the current student. CT-OPD retokenizes each teacher response in the student's vocabulary and extracts unresolved-position masks at successive stages of the student's reverse process. For each mask, it discards provisional rollout values and reconstructs the partial state from the teacher endpoint, so the supervised positions follow the current trajectory while the visible context and targets remain consistent with the same response. The student is trained on these reconstructed states with its native categorical loss, and trajectories are refreshed as the model evolves. Across dense and sparse diffusion architectures, CT-OPD consistently enhances multimodal understanding and reasoning capabilities, with gains of up to 9.80 points on the nine-benchmark average. On the unified understanding-and-generation architecture, it also improves both visual understanding and image generation, showing that the same principle transfers across architectures and modalities. Ablations further attribute these gains to coherent reconstruction and current-model trajectory masks.

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arXiv AI Papers

Minimally Invasive Steering of Language Models

Pre-logit steering adapts a frozen language model to a test-time reward by adding vectors to its final hidden states. Unregularized reward optimization can substantially alter the output distribution and degrade generation quality. We propose Minimally Invasive Steering Vector Optimization (MISVO), which penalizes interventions using the local KL geometry of the induced token distribution. The resulting Fisher quadratic measures distributional sensitivity and admits an analytic gradient computed through matrix--vector products with the frozen language-model head. We derive an exact decomposition of the sequence-level KL gradient into an analytic Fisher term and a suffix score-function term. For a fixed generation horizon, we show that the suffix term is second order in the steering magnitude and that three Fisher surrogates agree with the full KL gradient to first order. MISVO uses the frozen-reference surrogate to optimize position-specific interventions without updating model parameters. Across preference and code-generation tasks on models with approximately 1B--14B parameters, MISVO achieves the highest mean reward in six of seven model--task settings, with diversity and coherence scores close to those of Best-of-N.

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arXiv AI Papers

On Growth and Form, and Function: Reusable Regulatory Handles Control Phenotypic Variation

How phenotypic transformations are implemented by changes in underlying regulatory dynamics remains a central question in developmental biology. Inspired by D'Arcy Thompson's 1917 "On Growth and Form", we ask whether coherent large-scale transformations of morphology can be encoded as low-dimensional modulations of a self-organizing developmental system. We use neural cellular automata (NCAs) as bio-inspired models of distributed development, in which a shared local regulatory network grows target morphologies from a single cell. We apply low-rank adaptation (LoRA) to pretrained NCAs, representing each adapted developmental program as a low-rank modulation of a fixed regulatory scaffold. Horizontal and vertical scaling of a fully grown 2D emoji phenotype can each be implemented by rank-one adaptations. Their linear combinations parametrically control phenotype size, generalize beyond the training distribution, and compose with target-specific adapters. Strikingly, adaptations learned for one phenotype transfer zero-shot across structurally and semantically diverse phenotypes sharing the same reference scaffold, while largely preserving internal features. This suggests reusable system-level hyper-directions of scale rather than morphology-specific transformations. From approximately 25,000 independently trained phenotype-specific NCA adapters with a shared scaffold, we further identify latent low-dimensional directions that functionally control phenotypic variation including scaling, style, and symmetrical fission. Together, our results provide a computational realization of D'Arcy Thompson's remarkable grid transformations in a 2D NCA---a minimal cybernetic tissue in which variations of fully grown emoji phenotypes can be encoded, combined, and controlled through low-dimensional directions in regulatory weight space.

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AWS Machine Learning Blog

Agentic conversational video intelligence built on AWS

Learn how to build a conversational video intelligence solution on AWS using an agentic architecture. A single Strands Agents SDK agent orchestrates Amazon Bedrock, Amazon Rekognition, and Amazon Transcribe at runtime, deciding which service to call so you can ask natural language questions about your videos and get answers in seconds.

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arXiv AI Papers

Beyond Poetry: Can Large Language Models Generate Classical Arabic Maqamat?

Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong performance in creative text generation, yet their ability to produce culturally grounded and stylistically constrained literary forms remains underexplored. Prior work has focused largely on modern language varieties and poetry, while classical prose traditions such as maqama remain largely unstudied. The maqama is a classical literary genre characterized by rhymed prose (saj), dense rhetorical ornamentation, and episodic narrative structure, making it a challenging testbed for evaluating whether LLMs can move beyond surface fluency toward deeper literary competence. In this paper, we present the first controlled evaluation study of maqama generation with LLMs, comparing five models under zero-shot, few-shot, and rule-based prompting, and evaluating outputs through both human annotation and an LLM-as-a-judge framework across dimensions such as rhetorical richness, saj density, structural coherence, and stylistic authenticity. Our results show that prompting strategy plays a strong role in stylistic quality: few-shot prompting most consistently improves saj density, while its effects on rhetoric and coherence vary by model, with the strongest models (GPT-4o and GPT-5.4-mini) benefiting most from rule-based prompting on these dimensions, though zero-shot prompting yields the highest aggregate scores across all five models. We further observe systematic differences between models in stylistic alignment with Arabic maqama conventions, and corroborate our findings with a second independent LLM judge, paired statistical significance testing, and non-LLM proxy measures of saj.

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arXiv AI Papers

Controlled Attribute-Specific Summarization of Interrogative Dialogues

Effective summarization of interrogative dialogues is a critical task in forensic and investigative settings, requiring high factual accuracy, coherence, and attribute-specific relevance. In this work, we introduce CASPER, a novel Chain-of-Thought Attribute-Specific Prompting for Evaluative Summarization framework that leverages structured prompting and iterative refinement to generate high-quality summaries of interrogator-witness interactions. We construct MINDSum, a dataset extending the MIND corpus, comprising 6,000 utterance pairs annotated with event details, factual statements, character descriptions, and fillers. CASPER employs RoleEval, a hierarchical evaluation mechanism where multiple roles (officer, inspector, senior inspector) iteratively assess summaries based on predefined criteria. By integrating entity extraction and structured feedback loops, CASPER significantly improves factual consistency and contextual completeness compared to existing baselines. Experimental results demonstrate that our framework outperforms standard summarization models on both lexical (ROUGE) and semantic (BERTScore) metrics, while human evaluation confirms its alignment with expert reasoning. Our findings underscore the potential of controlled summarization in high-stakes domains, paving the way for AI-driven forensic intelligence.

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arXiv AI Papers

TriWorldBench: A Tri-View Consistency Perspective on Embodied World Models

Embodied world models predict the outcomes of robot actions to support learning and planning. For robots equipped with head and wrist cameras, this requires complementary views: the head view captures the overall task, while wrist views reveal local gripper-object interactions. However, evaluating these views independently cannot determine whether they describe the same action and object state. We introduce TRIWORLDBENCH, a benchmark for evaluating embodied world models through synchronized head, left-wrist, and right-wrist videos. It contains 500 episodes across 50 bimanual manipulation tasks and uses 19 metrics to assess tri-view consistency, task alignment, physical and 3D coherence, motion quality, temporal consistency, and visual quality. By combining cross-view checks with measurements tailored to each camera, the benchmark evaluates whether plausible individual videos also form a consistent prediction of the intended task. We summarize overall performance with TWB-Score and retain per-view results to identify where predictions fail. This extends world-model evaluation beyond single-view visual quality. Code, data, and metric definitions are available at https://github.com/TriWorldBench/TriWorldBench.

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arXiv AI Papers

Domain-Adaptive Pretraining Enhances Water Treatment Semantic Representation for Large-Scale Structured Literature Mining

Water treatment research is expanding rapidly, but much of the knowledge acquired from this research remains scattered across unstructured literature. The field still lacks a dedicated language model that can efficiently capture water treatment-specific domain semantics for large-scale literature mining. Here, we address this by developing WaterBERT, a domain-adapted encoder model designed for semantic representation and structured information extraction from water treatment texts. WaterBERT was developed by continual pretraining on a large-scale water treatment corpus comprising about 2.97 billion tokens. Three fine-tuned models based on WaterBERT were systematically evaluated on downstream tasks, achieving the best overall performance among general-purpose and domain-specific BERT models, with F1 scores of 90.12% for multiclass treatment process classification, 79.50% for named entity recognition, and 74.04% for relation extraction. Beyond these benchmark tasks, we further demonstrated WaterBERT's advantages for large-scale literature processing. Applied to 5,144 Environmental Science & Technology articles, WaterBERT-BERTopic identified coherent, diverse, and domain-specific research topics without predefined categories. Building on WaterBERT, we processed 693,211 abstracts at substantially lower cost than commercial LLMs while retaining competitive extraction performance to construct a structured water treatment knowledge graph. The knowledge graph was then integrated with lexical and dense retrieval to develop a Water Knowledge-Enhanced Retrieval System (WaterKERS), which achieved a relevance score of 77.7, substantially outperforming text-based retrieval baselines (54.7-64.5). Through WaterBERT, this study provides a compact and scalable semantic foundation for large-scale information processing and evidence mapping in water treatment research.

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arXiv AI Papers

SLICEChat: Progressive In-Encoder Token Pruning for Whole-Slide Pathology Language Models

Whole-slide pathology images (WSIs) contain gigapixel-scale visual content, creating a major scalability challenge for slide-level multimodal large language models (MLLMs). Existing approaches process thousands of patch tokens and typically apply compression only after slide encoding, leaving multimodal attention computationally expensive. We introduce SLICEChat, a slide-level MLLM that integrates progressive token pruning within a hybrid Mamba--Transformer slide encoder. Mamba layers enable efficient long-range propagation, while Transformer layers preserve global interactions as the sequence is progressively shortened. Between stages, language-supervised, region-aware pruning removes spatially coherent low-utility regions under a controlled keep-rate schedule, producing compact slide representations before multimodal fusion. On SlideBench VQA, SLICEChat achieves 79.84% accuracy on TCGA and 59.09% on BCNB cohorts, outperforming prior slide-level pathology MLLMs, and achieves the highest overall WSI-Bench metrics. It also provides competitive memory usage and the inference latency among the evaluated models. These results demonstrate accurate and computationally efficient multimodal reasoning over gigapixel WSIs.

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arXiv AI Papers

Stealing profits: Spread-based temporal hierarchy forecasting for day-ahead electricity markets

Day-ahead electricity price forecasts support trading and storage decisions, but for battery arbitrage predicting intraday price spreads is more relevant than predicting individual hourly prices. Here we show that a temporal hierarchy forecasting (THieF) framework that jointly reconciles forecasts of hourly electricity prices and all intraday price spreads consistently improves performance across two major European electricity markets and three different forecasting architectures. Using five years of out-of-sample data from Germany and Spain, we obtain accuracy improvements of up to 19.7% and profit gains of up to 10.4% relative to unreconciled hourly price forecasts. The gains persist even for a highly accurate pretrained TabPFN foundation model. Our results demonstrate that exploiting coherent relationships between economically relevant forecasting targets can improve both predictive accuracy and decision value, and that better statistical forecasts do not necessarily imply better economic decisions.

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arXiv AI Papers

QuranicMMLU: A Cognitively-Aware Benchmark for Evaluating Generative AI Solutions on Quranic Linguistic Knowledge

We introduce QuranicMMLU, a benchmark for evaluating generative AI on Quranic Arabic across multiple dimensions of linguistic complexity. Existing Quranic benchmarks center on general question answering and semantic retrieval, without probing specific linguistic competencies or stratifying by cognitive demand and verse difficulty. We construct a five-pillar Quranic taxonomy spanning Phonology, Morphology, Syntax, Semantics, and Pragmatics, with 31 leaves covering phenomena from tajwīd and root-and-pattern morphology to occasions of revelation and inter-surah coherence. For each leaf we generate questions stratified by Bloom's cognitive level and verse perplexity, then have LLM as a judge to independently answer and score every item and route the annotations to manual review. The resulting dataset comprises 980 human-reviewed questions, each issued in both open-ended and multiple-choice form. We benchmark 12 systems on these items and find that the Islamic-specialized model leads, yet every system scores higher on multiple-choice accuracy (average 84%) than open-ended answer quality (average 60%): the two rankings agree closely (Kendall's τ=0.73), but multiple-choice scoring hides failures that surface only once answer choices are removed. QuranicMMLU thus offers a rigorous, linguistically grounded framework for evaluating Arabic NLP in the Quranic domain.

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arXiv AI Papers

COMPLEX: A Closed-Form Certified Embedding of Multiparameter Persistence Modules

Every multiparameter persistence vectorization we know of carries a one-sided Lipschitz upper bound and nothing below it: without a lower gauge there is no sense in which the features are faithful, and no per-prediction guarantee can be built on them. This paper supplies the missing side. COMPLEX is a closed-form, training-free embedding of multiparameter modules -- slice the module along a fixed near-diagonal net, embed each slice barcode by the certified PLACE/PALACE landmark map, concatenate. Under a checkable witnessing-slice coherence condition, holding on 100% of audited pairs on Orbit5k, a single slice carries a closed-form lower gauge: separated modules stay separated in the embedding. With the standard upper bound this gives, to our knowledge, the first two-sided distortion bound for a multiparameter feature map, making faithfulness measurable. Measuring it, we find the floor tight within a small factor of realized distances yet operationally local: an RBF-SVM reaches 91% where 1-NN reaches 78% on the same features. Local per-prediction certification therefore fails for a structural reason common to every landmark embedding whose lower gauge is witnessed by one coordinate. With no learned embedding and no held-out calibration -- only a cross-validated SVM head -- COMPLEX sets the state of the art on both Orbit benchmarks (91.95% on Orbit5k, 92.98% on Orbit100k), level with or above Euler-characteristic surfaces and above transformers and graphcode. On graphs it exceeds GRIL on all four shared molecular benchmarks with one fixed configuration, including the only multiparameter method to clear COX2's majority baseline by more than three points. Closed-form selection -- of the landmark radius, the kernel (certificate-preserving), and the bifiltration set -- buys further accuracy; gradient-shaped adaptation buys none.

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arXiv AI Papers

RACER: Role-Aligned Competence Estimation for Human-AI Routing

Learning to defer asks a predictive system when to act autonomously and when to defer to a human expert. Population-adaptive deferral extends this problem to unseen experts using a small context set of expert behavior. Neural context encoders such as L2D-Pop can be query-dependent, but may learn routing shortcuts tied to absolute class coordinates. Identity-Free Deferral (IFD) removes such shortcuts through role-indexed classwise competence profiles, but its estimates are constant within each class and cannot capture instance-level expert specialization. We propose RACER---Role-Aligned Competence Estimation for Routing---a role-relative framework for estimating an unseen expert's competence from context. RACER estimates the posterior-predictive probability that the expert is correct on a query under each candidate class role, then combines these estimates with the model posterior to obtain the Bayes-relevant expert-correctness probability. Nonparametric and neural kernel-pooling estimators use candidate-role relations, shared aggregation, and symmetric summaries, excluding absolute class-identity channels. We prove coherent class-relabelling invariance, derive a Bayes-aligned deferral surrogate, and give a plug-in regret bound relating routing regret to classifier and competence-estimation error. On controlled synthetic benchmarks, including a PathMNIST histopathology context-scaling study with simulated experts, RACER benefits from additional context under hidden subtype dependence and gives the strongest aggregate performance on a separately sampled unseen-expert split in the CIFAR-100 synthetic experiments. On the radiologist and human--AI chest-radiography benchmarks (VinDr-CXR and CheXpert), the RACER family is competitive or best in budget-swept deferral, with calibration results varying across metrics and datasets.

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arXiv AI Papers

Intervention Granularity Matters: Coherent Treatment Bundles in Counterfactual Simulation with Clinical World Models

Counterfactual simulation with a clinical world model means fixing a patient's history, changing the treatment, and reading off the predicted response. Doing so requires deciding what counts as one intervention. In clinical settings, interventions are documented as bundles: a co-occurrence audit of 945,707 patient-hours from MIMIC-IV shows groups of components, such as every parameter of a dialysis circuit, that never appear apart, so an edit that changes one component on its own describes an hour that never occurs in the data. We hypothesize that the granularity at which an intervention is edited changes how a world model responds, and test this with Clin-JEPA, a latent world model of patient trajectories conditioned on hourly treatment text. At 1,019 documented onsets of invasive ventilation, we keep the patient's history and other treatments fixed and compare editing one ventilator setting with editing the complete configuration recorded for a real patient with the most similar recent trajectory. The complete bundle moves the predicted next state further than any single setting, consistently across all five settings, and the difference remains after accounting for how much each edit changes the model's input. Intervention granularity therefore materially affects the response of a clinical world model: single-component edits may understate treatment sensitivity, and bundle-aware editing may offer a better-supported basis for counterfactual treatment simulation.

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