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arXiv AI Papers

Exponential Hardness of Off-Policy Evaluation under History-Dependent Logging

Can a logged dataset visit every hidden state frequently and still be exponentially uninformative about a target policy's value? We show that it can when the logger depends on history. For every horizon H 3, we construct two POMDPs with at most two latent states per stage, three actions, and a common logger with three memory states. Action coverage, belief coverage, and two behavior-marginal outcome-revealing conditions all have constants independent of H. Nevertheless, evaluating a known deterministic target policy to accuracy 1/8 requires Θ((3/2)^H (1/δ)) logged episodes at confidence 1-δ, for 0 < δ1/4, even when both candidate models are known. The mechanism is simple: a reset erases the unknown transition that determines the target value. We characterize the resulting statistical experiment exactly and obtain a matching optimal estimator. A directed two-lane gridworld realizes the construction, and trajectory simulations agree with its finite-sample prediction. The result establishes intractability for the history-dependent-logging, model-based case posed by Zhang and Jiang (2025, arXiv:2503.01134), under their behavior-marginal definition of revealing.

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arXiv AI Papers

Flag Game: A Toy Model for Mechanistic Swarm Interpretability

Emergent coordinated behaviors of AI agents are starting to present critical safety risks. A key phenomenon driving these behaviors is the rapid formation and spread of beliefs about the world, and mechanistic understanding is crucial for collective alignment. To this end, we introduce the Flag Game, a toy model for studying the mechanisms of collective belief formation. Concretely, a hidden country flag defines the ground truth, and each bounded agent directly observes only a private crop but can exchange beliefs and weigh social evidence from peers. Despite its simplicity, the Flag Game reproduces rich collective phenomenology: non-monotonic scaling of performance with population size, accuracy gains from social-awareness prompting and team diversity, and strong effects of organizational structure. In particular, we identify that collective belief collapse at small population sizes turns into collective belief polarization as the population grows. This polarization causes the performance decline at large population sizes, but creates diversity in collective beliefs. Finally, we dissect the mechanisms underlying collective belief collapse and polarization with two complementary approaches. We first introduce social circuit attribution, a technique to predict which agent, and what view, matters most to collective dynamics, and verify its predictions by causal interventions on agents, tracing how agent patching changes collective outcomes. However, the efficacy of causal interventions on agents decreases as the population grows. We therefore develop a statistical mechanical theory for larger populations and verify that it matches the empirical phase diagram. Together, these results take a first step toward mechanistic swarm interpretability, a science of how the properties of individual agents and their communication give rise to emergent collective behavior.

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arXiv AI Papers

rMuscle: Robotic Muscle Memory for Efficient Vision-Language-Action Model Inference

Factory work is a promising early scenario for embodied AI: assigning repetitive manual jobs to robots has clear economic payoff, and a structured station keeps the jobs tractable for current policies. Vision-Language-Action (VLA) models now dominate as the policy paradigm for these robots. The inference latency of VLA models directly affects robot responsiveness and motion smoothness. However, existing VLA inference frameworks do not fully exploit the characteristics of embodied workloads or account for the distinct bottlenecks across different stages of VLA inference. In this paper, we first characterize embodied workloads and identify substantial task similarity across repeated robot executions. We further find that such similarity extends beyond observations and action trajectories to internal model states. Drawing on these observations, we present rMuscle, a real-time VLA inference framework inspired by human muscle memory. It exploits cross-execution similarity through a dual-phase muscle-memory cache. The Context Cache reuses visual-token outputs to reduce computation, while the Action Cache reuses neuron activation patterns to reduce weight accesses. We keep both the cache memory footprint and access overhead low through online cache recomputation, sliding-window cache retrieval, and mask sharing across consecutive denoising steps. rMuscle achieves 1.29-1.42X speedup on RTX 4090 and Jetson Thor across LIBERO, RoboTwin, and physical manipulation tasks, while maintaining the original success rates on real-world robots.

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arXiv AI Papers

Social Laws for Multi-agent Coordination in Stochastic Environments

In multi-agent environments, coordinating agents to prevent interference and ensure robust individual performance is a critical challenge. Previous research on social laws for multi-agent systems has primarily focused on deterministic, goal-based settings. This paper extends the concept of social laws to stochastic, reward-based environments, proposing a formalism for defining and verifying their robustness under various conditions. We introduce the notion of α-robustness, a measure of the guaranteed utility each agent retains while pursuing its optimal single agent policy, assuming all agents obey the social law. We then present an approach for robustness verification of social laws in stochastic settings, based on a reduction to solving a series of Markov decision processes. Empirical evaluations on toy environments illustrate the potential of our framework.

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arXiv AI Papers

ASLEval: Measuring Privacy Exposure Displacement in LLM Agent Sessions

Privacy evaluations of tool-using LLM agents often inspect a designated action, final response, or attacker report. These local proxies can miss unauthorized exposure elsewhere in a multi-step session and lack common ground truth across outlets, reports, and tool paths. We introduce privacy exposure displacement, the mismatch between a local evaluation proxy and target-grounded session exposure, and ASLEval, an authorization-aware framework that pre-registers a hidden target set, measures all declared visible exits, and reserves internal traces for diagnosis. Across multiple enterprise-style environments and independently implemented runtimes, we observe three recurring patterns. An expected-outlet-only view misses 46.9% of exposure recovered by the visible-exit union; attacker self-reports combine omissions with high false discovery; and schema-aligned internal evidence usually precedes visible exposure at the request/probe level. Reducing model-visible returns changes this path but can eliminate normal-task success. Independent human review supports the adjudication pipeline while identifying harder console and candidate cases. These findings motivate benchmarks that declare the complete visible boundary, ground claims in pre-specified targets and authorization, and report privacy together with task utility.

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arXiv AI Papers

Using OCR Heads to Verbalize Image Semantics

How do VLMs map from pixels to semantics? To understand this general question, we focus on a narrow one: studying how VLMs perform optical character recognition (OCR). Across four models, we identify attention heads causally necessary for OCR, and discover that these are in fact general-purpose heads that output interpretable semantic features across all image tokens. For example, pointing these heads at an image token containing the word "bike" causes Qwen3-VL-8B to output "bike," but pointing them at a bird wing causes the model to output the token "feathers." We collapse these heads' attention weights into a single verbalization lens transformation that reveals interpretable semantic features in hidden states across all layers. When combined with projection to vocabulary space, we can obtain interpretable labels starting from layer 0, showing that image representations are in fact aligned with language in early layers. We find that we can also use the inverse of this transformation to edit non-word concepts, e.g., replacing a tractor with a revolver in a naturalistic image, providing causal evidence that this subspace is useful for more than just OCR. Our results are an example of how the study of specific mechanisms can shed light on broader interpretability problems.

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arXiv AI Papers

Compositional Policy Violations: When Step-Level Compliance Fails In Agentic AI Workflows

Agentic workflows now make consequential decisions in regulated settings, and the governance placed around them is almost entirely step-scoped: input-output classifiers, per turn rails, and span-level evaluators. The policies organizations actually hold, such as referral thresholds, authority limits, and review requirements, are properties of the whole execution rather than of any one step. This mismatch admits a failure mode we call a Compositional Policy Violation (CPV): every individual step passes its own check while the composed execution violates the governing policy. A predicate over a single step cannot evaluate a property that step does not determine, so no improvement in the accuracy of the step-scoped monitors detects this class. We define CPVs as the failure of step-level compliance to compose, and present a taxonomy of four types: Authority Creep, Threshold Laundering, Cumulative Sum Violation, and Context Collapse. We show that the correct repair for each class is dictated by where the guarded quantity mutates. We then introduce a provenance-aware runtime architecture that evaluates policies over complete execution traces, recomputing guarded quantities from raw provenance rather than the pipeline's derived representation.

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arXiv AI Papers

WaveTLM: Reliable Time-Series Language Modeling through Task Compilation

Time-series language models provide a shared natural-language interface across temporal tasks, but plausible text does not guarantee reliable task outputs. Responses may appear reasonable while hallucinating the required object: numerical sequences can violate shape, scale, channel order, or temporal alignment, and textual decisions can fall outside the legal label space. We formulate reliable time-series language modeling, separating task-object reliability from predictive quality. We introduce ExecTS-QA, a contract-grounded benchmark spanning forecasting, imputation, classification, anomaly detection, and waveform analysis. We further propose WaveTLM, a unified compiler-executor model whose task compiler transforms user requests, visible arguments, and wave-grounded evidence into typed task states, while task-native executors construct numerical tensors, legal decisions, or structured records. On ExecTS-QA, a single WaveTLM checkpoint achieves 99.40% contract-valid coverage, compared with 37.83% for the strongest evaluated string-first baseline, while retaining balanced predictive performance across all five task families. Evaluations on SciTS, TSQA, IRTS-ToolBench, and ARFBench provide additional evidence of transfer. The code, construction scripts, and ExecTS-QA dataset will be publicly released upon publication. These results show that task compilation can convert plausible language generation into reliable time-series outputs.

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arXiv AI Papers

Beyond frequency measures: Can contextual embeddings capture meaning change in scientific texts?

Identifying technological trends is a core scientometric task, yet traditional frequency-based approaches struggle to capture substantial meaning shifts of domain-specific terms. We hypothesise that contextual embeddings can complement frequency dynamics to effectively track diachronic semantic change. We compare frequency and embedding-based approaches across Astrophysics and NLP corpora spanning from 2010 to 2024. Candidate terms are extracted using KeyBERT (utilizing SciBERT as its underlying language model) and filtered for significant frequency increases using Fisher's exact test. These terms are then evaluated for genuine semantic shift by domain experts to establish ground-truth labels. To quantify semantic drift, each term's contextual embedding ''clouds'' from the two discrete periods are compared using multiple metrics: cosine distance, average pairwise distance, Hotelling-type T 2 , and maximum mean discrepancy. Results indicate that frequency-based methods align slightly better with human judgments of ''trend-related terms'' than semantic metrics (Precision@50 of 0.62 vs 0.60 in Astrophysics). The two signals show a correlation of around 0.6. Several terms identified exclusively by embedding metrics (e.g., ''primordial black holes'') represent critical conceptual developments invisible to pure frequency analysis. These findings indicate that semantic metrics may capture complementary information, highlighting the value of integrating contextual embeddings into scientometric trend analysis.

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arXiv AI Papers

A Convergence Framework for Deep V-Learning: Error Propagation and Sharp Action-Gap Bounds

We establish convergence bounds for deep V-learning with horizon H. The algorithm fits a scalar value function to targets from executed transitions and selects actions using a predictive model and the value function. For current observed-successor targets with fresh true-kernel outcomes, the conditional mean is {T}^βV, which averages over behavior-policy actions. The Bellman optimality update is {T} V. We decompose the update error into six residuals: fitting, transition reuse, target construction, replay, action selection, and exploration. Under L^s concentrability, their L^p norms (p=s/(s-1)) control expected L^1 policy loss. The bound explicitly weights residuals from only the last H-1 update blocks, plus an initialization term for shorter runs. We quantify the cost of a shared sampling distribution across horizon levels. For statistical error bounds of order n^{-ν}, we derive optimal continuous allocations and an integer allocation whose objective is within a factor 2^ν of the constrained optimum. A margin condition with exponent α gives action error of order Λ^{1+α/p}, where Λ combines network drift and score error; a one-step construction proves the exponent sharp. Bounds on the distance between frozen and optimal scores transfer an optimal-gap condition to frozen-iterate gap bounds while retaining the mass of optimal ties. Survival probabilities and coverage conditions at deployment yield bounds for policies selected with approximate scores. Separate spatial ReLU networks per horizon level give a conditional neural regression rate, and the finite-state case gives a log-free expected fit rate. These results give expected policy-loss consistency for the fixed-horizon generative-reset approximate-ERM procedure with exact action scores and provide an explicit residual-decay criterion for FIFO/interleaved SGD.

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arXiv AI Papers

CERA-MoA: Co-Evolving Routing Mechanisms with Continually Learning LLM Agents

Current Mixture-of-Agents (MoA) paradigms generally treat query routing and agent fine-tuning as separate processes, limiting their ability to respond to evolving agent capabilities. This disconnect prevents routing strategies from adapting to evolving agent capabilities during post-training and prevents agents from achieving synergistic data-driven specialization. To resolve this, we introduce CERA-MoA (Co-Evolving Router with continually learning Agents for Mixture-of-Agents), an iterative reinforcement learning framework where the dynamic router and independent agent policies co-evolve. We design a predictive familiarity estimator that leverages mid-layer hidden states to evaluate semantic competence among agents, avoiding the overhead of full rollouts. Based on these familiarity scores, a cumulative-threshold adaptive routing mechanism dynamically activates a tailored minimal agent subset, achieving a trade-off between task performance and efficiency. By proactively allocating targeted training samples to agents based on their evolving competence, CERA-MoA promotes capability differentiation. Extensive experiments across various domains demonstrate that CERA-MoA outperforms state-of-the-art static-agent routing and fix-workflow fine-tuning baselines.

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arXiv AI Papers

DyMT-ESB: Dynamic Multi-Turn Evaluation of Social Bias in User-LLM Interactions

Warning: This paper contains examples of stereotypes and social bias. LLMs are increasingly used in interactive settings by the general public, making the evaluation of model behavior in multi-turn conversational scenarios important for safety, including stereotyping-related harms. However, existing multi-turn social bias evaluations often rely on pre-specified or template-based user inputs that do not adapt to model responses and typically assume a fixed dialogue length in advance. In this paper, we study social bias dynamics in response-conditioned multi-turn interactions using a controlled evaluation protocol that generates follow-up user queries from the evolving dialogue history and allows evaluation over variable numbers of turns. Experimental results show that LLMs exhibit social bias even in coherent, response-conditioned multi-turn interactions, revealing late-emerging bias, non-monotonic bias patterns, and bias re-emergence. These results motivate evaluations that extend beyond fixed-turn, pre-scripted protocols. Our findings highlight the importance of analyzing social bias as a turn-level dynamic phenomenon.

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arXiv AI Papers

STRETCH the Boundaries: A Unified Self-Taught Framework for Progressive LLM Evolution

Large language models (LLMs) often suffer from capability stagnation in self-improvement training because fixed difficulty levels fail to adapt to their evolving proficiency. To address this issue, we propose STRETCH (Self-Taught Reasoning Evolution via Targeted CHallenge), a unified framework inspired by cognitive scaffolding theory. STRETCH introduces a dynamic Stretch Zone mechanism that continuously aligns question difficulty with the model's solving capability. Within a single parameter space, the model alternates between a Scaffolder that generates adaptive, boundary-pushing challenges and a Learner that that optimizes its solving trajectories through reinforcement learning. This dual-loop co-evolution effectively stabilizes training, mitigates reward hacking and promote progressive reasoning growth. Experiments on both negotiation and operation research benchmarks demonstrate that STRETCH consistently outperforms strong prompting and domain-specific baselines. Further scaffolder configuration analysis shows that dynamic difficulty alignment is critical for sustained capability improvement and synchronized reasoning evolution.

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arXiv AI Papers

CoRe-MARL: Cooperative Redistribution Under Unknown Dynamics Using Recurrent Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning

Emergency management assistance programs, such as relief distribution, are essential for delivering necessary supplies to affected communities. However, these programs operate in a decentralized network of local centers that face uncertain local demand and supply dynamics, resulting in inconsistent avail- ability of local services. Redistribution of supplies among these local centers reduces these imbalances, but the centers often make decisions independently, with limited information and disrupted transportation. This study develops CoRe-MARL, a cooperative multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) framework, by formulating a decentralized partially observable Markov decision process (Dec-POMDP). We treat each center as an agent that learns a redistribution policy to improve the service in the worst-case region and reduce the service gap across regions while protecting network-wide service. We incorporate a recurrent network that captures evolving supply and demand dynamics without direct observation, while multi-agent proximal policy optimization (MAPPO) enables centralized training and decentralized execution (CTDE). We evaluate the framework in a simulated environment with diverse trajectories, where exact dynamics are not observed by actors and the MAPPO critic. We compare the recurrent MAPPO with the recurrent independent PPO (IPPO) and a local only heuristic, and find that MAPPO reduces the service gap across local centers and enhances service for the worst-served center while maintaining competitive network-wide service. The recurrent MAPPO also shows consistent performance across diverse trajectory patterns, demonstrating its ability to adapt to evolving dynamics. The findings demonstrate the capability of cooperative learning for decentralized redistribution and improving equitable service under uncertain and evolving dynamics.

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arXiv AI Papers

How Many Labels Does Model Choice Need? Certificates and Budgets for Selective Prediction

Classifiers can make identical predictions yet require labels to compare their selective performance: confidence ranks weight the same errors differently. We quantify this requirement for the area under the generalized risk-coverage curve (AUGRC). A prelabel lower bound rules out insufficient budgets. With all labels known, a covering linear program bounds the minimum number of labels sufficient to fix the winner (the certificate size) within K-1 labels for K candidates. For fixed K, independent uniform orders and identical predictions, the prelabel bound approaches one quarter of the pool. With iid Bernoulli errors independent of the orders, every exact acquisition policy reads almost all labels asymptotically, although a two-candidate certificate needs only half. Across 108 feature-panel comparisons on nine datasets, disagreement labels settle every accuracy choice but no AUGRC choice. A 20% budget is ruled out in 96 conditions; certificates need 56-57% on average. On ten conditions with pretrained image classifiers, confidence-score choice reads 68-91% of 10,000 labels for exact selection and 50-67% with AUGRC tolerance 510^{-4}. An exact stopping test works with any acquisition order. Together, these results link confidence ranks to label budgets and certified model comparison.

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arXiv AI Papers

A Geometric Theory of Decision Boundaries in Structured Markov Decision Processes

Classical dynamic programming represents optimal sequential decisions through value functions and policies. While this functional representation is natural for computing optimal decisions, it does not directly identify the mathematical object governing policy reconstruction, representation complexity, or oracle-query complexity once an optimal policy is fixed. This paper addresses this question by developing a geometric theory of structured optimal policies in which the decision-boundary geometry induced by the policy becomes the primary object of analysis. We show that, under suitable structural regularity conditions, this geometry provides the minimal representation required for policy reconstruction and determines the statistical and computational complexity of the reconstruction problem. Building upon this representation, we establish structural properties of policy-induced decision geometry, introduce intrinsic notions of boundary and decision complexity, derive information-theoretic measures of decision compression, and obtain statistical guarantees for boundary estimation and policy reconstruction from black-box policy queries. Collectively, these results demonstrate that, for the structured decision problems considered here, the complexity of policy reconstruction is governed by the geometry of the decision boundary rather than by the cardinality of the ambient state space. Controlled numerical experiments examine the principal theoretical predictions and provide empirical evidence consistent with the proposed framework.

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arXiv AI Papers

PACT: Can Enterprise AI Assistants Be Trusted Under Pressure?

As corporate AI adoption continues to grow, enterprise-grade LLM agents are being deployed into sensitive contexts such as hiring, healthcare, and finance. In these contexts, compliance with rules specified in an agent's system context is a first-order legal concern. Currently, no evaluation framework systematically measures which LLM models tend to violate compliance rules, especially under pressure from a persistent user, a hurried manager, or circumstances where violation is convenient or attractive. We introduce PACT (Pressure-Applied Compliance Testing), a benchmark for rule-following under pressure in AI agents assisting employees in daily tasks across twelve regulated enterprise domains and forty-eight scenarios, each set in a realistic multi-turn conversation. Each benchmark item pairs a standing rule against a rule-violating shortcut, and applies a battery of pressures across different wordings and system-prompt modes. We construct PACT component by component under strict LLM-as-judge auditing to ensure samples are unambiguous, ungameable, and realistic enough to avoid eliciting evaluation-aware behavior. We use PACT to profile LLM compliance across six complementary metrics that create a holistic picture of an AI assistant's robustness under pressure and throughout multi-turn conversations, its transparency, and ability to correctly discern where a rule applies. We aggregate this profile into PACTScore, a reliability-weighted compliance rate over all items and modes. Our results across 22 common LLM models spanning multiple providers and sizes show substantial variability in compliance across models and metric dimensions. Even the strongest assistants mis-apply a rule on 6 to 10% of items, and ordinary user pressure raises the violation rate by 65% on average. PACT highlights compliance risks in LLM assistants, motivating guardrails and careful model selection.

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