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2481documentos

209últimos 7 días

arXiv AI Papers

When Tomorrow Becomes Today: Self-Evolving Policies for Agentic Time-Series Forecasting

Agentic time series forecasting concerns systems whose underlying mechanisms evolve, making the relative effectiveness of numerical models, reasoning strategies, and intervention rules inherently time-varying. Consequently, a time series agent must adapt the forecasts it produces and the orchestration policy that determines which components to trust and how to coordinate them. The deployment process naturally provides supervision for this adaptation as forecast horizons elapse and realized targets reveal the effectiveness of earlier decisions. Committing all numerical expert forecasts and candidate agent paths before target observation allows each realized outcome to evaluate the entire alternative set, providing delayed feedback without additional annotation. However, existing time series agents primarily incorporate prior experience through forecast refinement, reflection, or retrieval, without systematically converting realized outcomes into persistent updates to the joint orchestration policy governing later origins. To exploit this delayed feedback systematically, we introduce TimEvolve, a frozen-backbone time series agent that converts each realized outcome into persistent joint updates of expert trust, agent path selection, and intervention strength. A temporally ordered predict, reveal, and update protocol applies this feedback to subsequent forecasts. Experiments across eight Time-MMD domains show that TimEvolve achieves the best average MSE and MAE ranks among fifteen methods and the lowest errors on both metrics in seven domains. These results demonstrate the value of learning forecasting policies from the futures encountered during deployment.

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arXiv AI Papers

PredActor: Predictive Action Diffusion for Steerable Onboard Humanoid Control

Diffusion models offer flexible motion generation, but translating this flexibility into feedback-responsive humanoid control remains challenging. Hierarchical systems steer motion through references that may exceed a separate tracker's capabilities, leaving recovery and physical execution largely to the tracker. Action-only diffusion generates actions directly but lacks an explicit future-state trajectory for test-time motion objectives. Joint state-action diffusion provides this representation, yet representative controllers often depend on privileged full-body states, and support for learned behavior selection and test-time motion steering remains fragmented. We present PredActor, a predictive action diffusion policy that brings these complementary steering capabilities into one directly executed policy using proprioceptive observations. Conditioned on proprioceptive history and optional task context, PredActor jointly generates executable actions and an internal future-state trajectory. Classifier-free guidance strengthens text-conditioned behavior, while classifier guidance steers predicted states toward test-time objectives. Only actions are executed, without a separate motion-reference tracker or externally estimated full-body states as policy inputs. In simulation, PredActor reaches all 15 destination targets and achieves a text retrieval score of 0.580, compared with 0.373 for conditional action diffusion, with similar observed disturbance survival. To make this guided policy practical onboard, rolling denoising and computation-preserving runtime optimizations reduce the complete callback to 16.790 ms median and 19.383 ms p95 on a Jetson Orin NX, both below the 20 ms control period. We deploy PredActor on a Unitree G1; evaluations across simulation and physical hardware demonstrate text-conditioned motion, disturbance response, joystick control, and semantic interpolation.

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arXiv AI Papers

MedRSI: Recursive Self-Improvement for Medical Agents via Clinically Aligned Self-Evolution

Medical agents increasingly combine general reasoning models with specialized clinical tools, yet their capabilities remain largely fixed by what clinicians and engineers design before deployment. Recursive self-improvement (RSI) offers a different paradigm in which agents learn from their own failures and autonomously expand their capabilities, but directly applying RSI to medicine introduces fundamental safety challenges. We introduce MedRSI, the first recursive self-improvement framework for medicine, which continuously transforms diagnostic failures into new clinical capabilities through tool composition and task-specific model training. Inspired by clinical practice, MedRSI introduces two mechanisms for clinically aligned self-evolution. Clinical-cost-aware failure prioritization directs improvement toward errors according to their potential clinical consequences rather than frequency alone. Fast discovery with slow registration separates rapid capability invention from conservative adoption, allowing new tools to enter the persistent agent only after demonstrating sustained benefit across subsequent patient cohorts. Across public glaucoma and heart disease benchmarks and two private clinical tasks, MedRSI progressively develops segmentation, measurement, prediction, multimodal reasoning, and generative capabilities, surpasses manually engineered medical agents, and autonomously discovers solutions to clinical problems not anticipated by its original designers. Our results show that medical agents need not remain constrained by capabilities specified before deployment: with clinically grounded mechanisms governing what to improve and what to retain, they can continuously construct, validate, and accumulate new capabilities from diagnostic experience. Code is available at https://github.com/ImprintLab/MedRSI.

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arXiv AI Papers

The Answer-Basin Representation Hypothesis: We Are Not Probing or Steering Concepts

The Linear Representation Hypothesis associates high-level concepts with directions in language models, but it remains unclear how these concept-related linear structures are organized within the model. We propose the Answer-Basin Representation Hypothesis: the probability measure induced over answers by the model's continuation distribution organizes these linear structures, with its statistics represented along linear directions shared across questions. All continuations yielding the same answer form an answer basin, whose mass is their total probability. These basin masses define the pushforward probability measure over answers. We posit that concept-related linear structure emerges from differences in the answer measure rather than being determined by changes in concept labels. Experiments across models and tasks link concept-consistent effects and their reversals in probing and steering to the alignment between concept labels and the answer measure.

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arXiv AI Papers

Uranus: Building the Next-Generation Simulation Infrastructure for Embodied AI

Scalable simulation is essential for robot data generation, policy training, evaluation, and safe iteration, yet real-world interaction is costly and conventional simulators require labor-intensive construction. We present Uranus, a data-driven robot simulator built around a joint-trajectory-conditioned autoregressive diffusion model. Uranus offers three key capabilities: (1) streaming, open-ended rollout, which receives future joint-position trajectories online and autoregressively generates one latent frame per step, corresponding to four RGB frames, without a fixed horizon; (2) low-latency generation, achieving 24 FPS after inference optimization; and (3) scalable, extensible robot control, providing a unified interface for synchronized multi-view generation across diverse robot embodiments and camera configurations. We conduct comprehensive quantitative and qualitative evaluations on both in-distribution and out-of-distribution data, providing an objective assessment of Uranus and clearly identifying its current limitations. We release the code and model weights to empower the community with practical tools and insights.

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arXiv AI Papers

Convex AI Compositionality and the Governance of AI System Populations

AI governance increasingly requires providers and public authorities to reason about multiple AI instantiations, alternative versions, and deployment configurations of multiple AI systems. Yet current regulation remains predominantly single-system-centric, acknowledging such multiplicity only sparsely without treating collections of related AI systems as governance objects. This creates an AI population governance problem: determining which instantiations can be meaningfully considered together and how their changing configurations can be represented and monitored. The first requirement has recently been addressed through trustworthiness-based accounts of AI identity. We address the second by introducing convex AI compositionality: a formal representation of the configurations generated by finite AI system populations that uses convex spaces. The core idea is that convex compositions of the operational states that a population of AI system instantiations may occupy over time are compatible with lifecycle reachability across the population and can preserve the formal identity relations between these systems. Well-known statistical and geometric constructions, such as weighted state distributions and convex hulls, become AI governance tools for distinguishing operational states, population weights, heterogeneity, and AI configuration change across different governance modes while remaining compatible, under stated conditions, with lifecycle reachability and AI identity. We illustrate our AI population governance framework through distributed healthcare deployments and controlled deployment of recruitment AI variants.

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NVIDIA AI Blog

AI Security Is an Engineering Problem — How to Solve It at Every Layer of the Agent Stack

AI security is an engineering problem. That means defined security requirements, enforceable controls, named owners and evidence that protections work. As AI becomes more capable, the industry must accelerate security engineering, broaden access to defensive tools and share what works faster. Technology Changes, Security Fundamentals Endure The internet and cloud computing changed how software operates, […]

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arXiv AI Papers

Lifted Bellman Linear Programming for Offline Reinforcement Learning

Offline reinforcement learning (RL) typically trains a critic by minimizing a regression loss against bootstrapped value targets stabilized by target networks with exponential moving average (EMA) updates. Multi-step targets incorporate behavior-policy actions and therefore require off-policy correction. We instead impose in-sample Bellman optimality on the critic through inequality constraints. We formulate the Lifted Bellman Linear Program (LBLP), which lifts the linear programming characterization of Bellman optimality to the joint (Q,V) space so that every constraint involves only state-action pairs in the dataset. Its unique minimizer is the in-sample optimal pair, and constraints along K-step segments of dataset trajectories leave this minimizer unchanged for any rollout policy and horizon. Under deterministic dynamics, this minimizer lies between the best dataset return and the optimal value. Relaxing the constraints into hinge penalties recovers the same solution above a finite penalty coefficient in the tabular case. Approximate Lifted Bellman Unconstrained Minimization (ALBUM) implements this relaxation with neural networks and detaches the K-step rollout targets by stop gradient. Its objective contains no squared regression onto bootstrapped targets, so it can be trained without target networks or EMA updates. Under deterministic dynamics, the LBLP solution is a stationary point of the detached update under a coefficient condition independent of γ and K, and the inequality constraints allow discounted returns along dataset trajectories to serve as lower bounds without off-policy correction or action chunking. On OGBench, ALBUM uses a single critic with a Gaussian policy, matches the average performance of FQL, and is comparable to recent action-chunking methods, while using the fewest parameters and the least peak GPU memory among all compared methods.

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arXiv AI Papers

ActGov: Governing LLM Agent Actions via Policy-Constrained Validation

Large language model (LLM) agents increasingly execute long-horizon workflows through external tools, allowing untrusted outputs to influence subsequent actions and exceed user authorization. Existing defenses isolate injected content or constrain execution with predefined plans and static policies, but these approaches are brittle under dynamic workflows and scale poorly across extensible tool ecosystems. In this work, we present ActGov, a runtime enforcement framework that validates each LLM-proposed tool action before it causes external effects. Built on a unified semantic model of authorization, actions, runtime context, and security constraints, the ActGov-Policy component iteratively constructs a policy set from tool specifications, benign tasks, and observed failure traces, with each update verified through SMT-based counterexample checking. At runtime, ActGov-Runtime abstracts each tool call into finite policy records and permits it only if it remains within the task-scoped authorization boundary and satisfies all applicable policies. This per-action enforcement preserves authorization throughout long-horizon, dynamically branching workflows. We evaluate ActGov on the AgentDojo and AgentDyn benchmarks across multiple models and attack configurations. It shows that ActGov consistently reduces the success rate of indirect prompt-injection attacks while preserving task utility, significantly outperforming existing defenses. These results demonstrate that ActGov can enforce fine-grained authorization over dynamic agent executions without relying on the underlying LLM to correctly identify malicious instructions.

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arXiv AI Papers

Horizon-Aware Early Event Prediction for Tokamak Disruption Alarms

Reliable disruption prediction is essential for the safe operation of future tokamaks. Existing full-distribution survival methods model the complete residual time-to-disruption distribution, whereas operational decisions primarily depend on disruption risk within a finite prediction horizon. This mismatch motivates introducing Early Event Prediction (EEP) objectives into survival-based disruption prediction. We take Deep Survival Machines (DSM) as the full-distribution baseline and propose applying two established EEP methods to tokamak disruption prediction: Temporal Label Smoothing (TLS), which directly predicts disruption probability within a finite horizon, and survTLS, which additionally models the event-time distribution within that horizon. Using a common causal encoder, we compare these methods on DIII-D, Alcator C-Mod, and EAST. We distinguish threshold-free deadline ranking from validation-selected fixed-policy alarm performance and evaluate prediction horizons and encoder architectures. TLS achieves the best mean alarm performance on DIII-D and EAST, whereas all methods perform poorly on Alcator C-Mod. survTLS does not consistently outperform DSM, suggesting that directly learning horizon-level event probability is more effective than modeling detailed within-horizon event-time distributions in the present setting. Finally, the selected prediction horizons and encoder-ablation results vary across devices, reflecting differences in disruption characteristics.

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arXiv AI Papers

Comparing Latent Concept Formation in State Space Models and Transformers via Sparse Autoencoders

The quadratic scaling of Transformer self-attention has driven the adoption of sub-quadratic Selective State Space Models (SSMs) like Mamba, which compress past context into a fixed-size recurrent hidden state. This strict informational bottleneck raises a foundational question for mechanistic interpretability: do SSMs and Transformers learn fundamentally distinct latent representations? In this work, we employ Sparse Autoencoders (SAEs) to conduct a large-scale, feature-level correspondence analysis between Mamba-130m and Pythia-70m over a 10-million token corpus. Contrary to hypotheses predicting widespread architectural divergence, we find no evidence of systematic representational divergence between architectures: across the observed Jaccard distribution, 99.98% of Mamba features cluster toward the upper alignment boundary, providing preliminary feature-level support for the Universality Hypothesis. We further identify and qualitatively characterize this microscopic fraction (0.02%) of diverging features, finding patterns consistent with the hypothesis that the recurrent bottleneck selectively limits the parsing of rigid syntax rather than broad semantic ontology. We demonstrate that while Pythia's unconstrained attention permits the monosemantic decomposition of distinct formatting edge-cases, Mamba is forced to compress unrelated syntactical anomalies into polysemantic "junk drawer" neurons to preserve state capacity. Collectively, these results suggest that architectural routing mechanisms may have negligible impact on core semantic understanding, with representational divergence confined to extreme structural margins.

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arXiv AI Papers

FoldQuantVLA: Native Low-Bit Quantization of Vision-Language-Action Models via Consistent Folding

Low-bit vision-language-action inference must reduce observation-to-action latency while preserving robot behavior. We present FoldQuantVLA, a post-training quantization framework that carries a consistent activation representation through calibration, weight rounding, and native integer execution. It combines channel scaling and block Hadamard transforms with dynamic per-token quantization, without policy retraining. Custom TensorRT plugins execute projections in both the language backbone and iterative action expert with four-bit weights and activations (W4A4) on Ada GPUs and Jetson AGX Orin. Evaluation spans LIBERO, SimplerEnv, and two robot platforms. Across three GR00T checkpoints and π_{0.5}, W4A4 achieves 1.20 to 1.33speedups over floating-point TensorRT on Orin and 1.25 to 1.52on desktop. Retaining language attention-output and feed-forward down projections at eight bits (W8A8) improves held-out action fidelity on all four checkpoints. Across four real-robot tasks, this configuration raises observed GR00T N1.7 success from 80.0\% with uniform W4A4 to 92.5\% over 80 trials per configuration, with a measured additional Orin latency of 1 ms.

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arXiv AI Papers

1% of Tokens Can Be Enough: On Gradient Estimation in On-Policy Distillation

Sparse on-policy distillation (OPD) allocates teacher supervision to a small subset of tokens in student-generated trajectories. However, useful teacher guidance can yield a noisy update when its gradient is estimated from a sampled next token. We study this estimation problem at a fixed prefix in information geometry and propose an information-efficiency ratio (IER) based on a signal-to-noise decomposition. IER characterizes relative gradient estimation error under an optimal scalar baseline. A candidate-set approximation enables token selection based on IER and its combination with existing usefulness scores, while retaining the sampled reverse-KL training objective. On mathematical and medical reasoning tasks, adding IER improves existing selectors in multiple settings, with sparse configurations matching or exceeding full OPD without token selection at small token budgets of 0.1\%--1\%. These results support accounting for both usefulness and gradient-estimation reliability when allocating sparse supervision. Our code is available at https://github.com/BruceSheng1202/IER-OPD.

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arXiv AI Papers

ARM: Attention with Routed-Memory for Learnable Sparse Control

Despite advances in long-context inference, large language models (LLMs) remain fundamentally limited by the key-value (KV) caching mechanisms that are necessary for stable computation. Techniques such as selective token eviction and pruning have vastly mitigated these issues, but often discard core information to manage the growing cache. In this paper, we propose Attention with Routed Memory (ARM) a novel KV caching structure that introduces a fully differentiable, fixed-size memory system organized as a hierarchical router. Via a Gumbel-Softmax, ARM learns to select memory slots and perform sigmoid-gated updates that softly combine new and stored information, avoiding hard eviction and reducing information loss. By further training a policy to dynamically select varying amounts of memory at inference, ARM adapts its accesses for both simple contexts and inputs that require deeper reasoning, enabling more scalable and effective retrieval on both short- and long-contexts. Experimental results on standard commonsense and long-context reasoning benchmarks demonstrate that ARM achieves superior performance and efficiency compared to fixed KV-caching approaches, while remaining efficient and scalable in terms of both memory and generation latency.

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arXiv AI Papers

Tactile-JEPA: Topology-Aware Self-Supervised Representation Learning for Distributed Tactile Sensors

Tactile sensing is an essential modality for robots performing contact-rich, dexterous manipulation, particularly under visual occlusion. While pre-trained image encoders are standard in robot learning pipelines, tactile encoders are still commonly trained from scratch from raw, noisy signals, which might limit their expressivity. Existing self-supervised learning (SSL) approaches focus predominantly on vision-based tactile sensors, leaving distributed electronic skins largely unaddressed. These sensors, however, have a distinctive property: their sensing elements are sparse and irregularly arranged over the surface they cover, which makes direct reuse of visual SSL methods suboptimal. We present Tactile-JEPA, an efficient self-supervised pre-training method that uses the spatial arrangement of tactile sensors to learn topology-aware representations. Specifically, it is trained to predict the embeddings of masked sensing elements from the unmasked remainder, using the sensor connectivity graph to guide spatial masking. Our analysis shows that effective tactile representations require capturing both local contact details and the global state of the tactile surface, which we achieve through dual-scale masking. Across three diverse datasets spanning magnetic and piezoresistive sensors, different robot embodiments, and single- and paired-sensor configurations, Tactile-JEPA reduces force estimation error by 6.3% and in-hand orientation error by 20.8% over the prior state-of-the-art, with consistent gains in other downstream applications, including policy learning. Overall, our results demonstrate that the benefit of tactile sensing depends critically on the quality of encoder pre-training, a problem which Tactile-JEPA addresses directly. Code is available at https://github.com/E-Kovtun/tactile.

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arXiv AI Papers

Information-Time Proximal Policy Optimization

RLVR has substantially improved the reasoning capabilities of LLMs. However, existing methods typically parameterize temporal progression in the Markov Decision Process by token-by-token generation, despite the highly non-uniform information flow along autoregressive trajectories. In this paper, we propose InfoPPO, which reparameterizes temporal progression using information density rather than raw token count. This reparameterization induces a common state-dependent structure for both temporal credit propagation and policy updates. InfoPPO restores the effectiveness of non-trivial discounting in long-horizon reasoning, retaining effective-horizon contraction while avoiding excessive attenuation of terminal supervision over long token sequences. Moreover, the information-time policy-improvement analysis naturally leads to a state-dependent update constraint, which we implement through adaptive clipping. By adapting the clipping threshold at each token position to the information density of its corresponding state, this mechanism enables more targeted policy updates while preserving proximal control. Theoretically, we extend performance-difference and policy-improvement analyses to the information-time MDP, deriving a policy-improvement lower bound when policy changes are regulated by information density. We further connect the general information-time analysis to practical LLM policy optimization by relating state-wise information density to local policy movement, while also providing theoretical grounding for the adaptive update mechanism. Experiments on Qwen3 models demonstrate consistent gains over competitive baselines across five challenging competition-style mathematical reasoning benchmarks. InfoPPO also maintains stable accuracy and response length across non-trivial discount settings under which token-time PPO deteriorates.

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