How to Evaluate AI Agents From Tool Calls to Task Completion
When you ship an AI agent, the key question is whether it can execute a chain of work across dozens of sequential tool calls against a live environment, and...
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Meta’s Muse is outpacing ChatGPT’s early mobile launch
Meta’s new AI agent Muse has racked up more downloads and daily active users in the U.S. and Canada than ChatGPT did over the same…
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xAI’s Grok 4.6 is now available in Amazon Bedrock
xAI's Grok 4.6 is now available in Amazon Bedrock: a frontier model for long-running agents, coding, and knowledge work, with a 500K token context window and four reasoning effort levels. It runs on both the bedrock-mantle and bedrock-runtime endpoints, with Converse API and cross-Region inference support.
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onPanda: Efficient Annotation of On-Policy Alignment Data for LLMs and Agents via Token-Level Correction
We present onPanda, an interactive tool for efficiently annotating LLM alignment data and agent trajectories. onPanda adopts token-level correction as its core interaction: while reading a model response, the annotator locates the first inappropriate token and either picks a substitute from the model's candidate tokens or types the correct text via free-form editing. The system then truncates everything after that position and continues generation from the corrected prefix, repeating this locate-correct-continue loop until a satisfactory response is obtained. This mechanism lets annotators precisely steer model outputs at low cost: a small controlled study suggests that onPanda reduces median annotation time by 52% over manual post-editing. Since the vast majority of tokens in the final response are generated by the model itself, the resulting data largely preserves the model's sampling distribution and is well suited for constructing on-policy SFT and preference data. Furthermore, the token-level corrections recorded during annotation provide fine-grained supervision with precise positions and naturally paired positive--negative samples. onPanda also connects to external tools and harnesses, enabling interactive trajectory annotation in realistic environments. In addition, we release Panda-CVL, a dataset annotated with onPanda, together with a benchmark for token-level correction.
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Harness-Zero: Harness Distillation via Agent-as-Harness
Agent harnesses, the external systems that mediate model-environment interaction, can substantially improve agent performance, but their gains remain tied to the harness at deployment. Because the best harness varies across domains, instances, and models, a general-purpose agent must either settle for a suboptimal shared harness or route among an ever-growing set of specialized ones. We therefore study agent harness distillation: using a domain- or instance-optimized harness as training-time guidance and transferring the behaviors it induces into model weights, so that its gains survive under a single fixed target harness. The challenge is that the two harnesses differ in action space and available information, so guidance from the optimized harness cannot serve directly as supervision for the target one. We introduce Harness-Zero, which enables harness distillation through agent-as-harness. Guided by the optimized harness, a harnessing agent corrects student responses before execution in the target harness's action space, turning harness guidance into training demonstrations. Fine-tuning on the resulting trajectories internalizes harness-induced behavior into the model, so the specialized harness can be removed at deployment. Our experiments spanning knowledge work, tool use, and science domains show that: (1) For frontier LLMs using the same evolved harness, agent-as-harness outperforms code-as-harness. (2) With the specialized harness removed at deployment, Harness-Zero improves the base model's macro-average task success from 23.3% to 44.3%, even exceeding the 41.7% it reaches with that harness still attached. (3) Harness-Zero recovers harness-induced behaviors absent from the base model, with 82.3% average recovery across 28 patterns in the three domains.
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RRSI: Regularized Recursive Self-Improvement of Agent Harnesses
An LLM agent's capability is largely magnified by its harness, namely the prompts, control flow, tooling, memory, and context management surrounding the frozen backbone model. Recent methods increasingly automate this process by iteratively proposing and selecting component-wise edits of an agent harness, practically establishing a form of recursive self-improvement (RSI) at the agent-system level. However, such recursive evolution may overfit by memorizing the training tasks, showing large in-distribution gains that shrink or even vanish on out-of-distribution benchmarks. We introduce Regularized Recursive Self-Improvement of Agent Harnesses (RRSI), which incorporates the principles of regularizations into harness self-improvement by constraining the evolution candidate proposal and selection. The proposer operates with a temporally annealed budget, limiting how many edits a candidate can bundle, and it encourages unexplored trajectories based on evolution history. The selector is equipped with a critic and a pruner: the critic screens benchmark-specific proposals, while the pruner, removes changes that are too small, too expensive, or no longer useful. Together these constraints favor reusable agent mechanisms over benchmark-specific ones or even noises. Across eight benchmarks spanning coding, agentic workspace and engineering design tasks, RRSI gains up to 14.1 points on the split it evolves against and up to 4.7 points on the five out-of-distribution benchmarks, while producing a harness that runs on 30% fewer policy tokens than the unregularized evolution. Code is available at https://github.com/google-research/rrsi and project page is https://regularized-rsi.com/.
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DolphinBench: Mapping the Pareto Frontier of Agent Memory
Agents today often take real-world actions that depend on long-term memory and context recall over time. However, most current memory benchmarks are built for a conversational question-answer format, where the question itself signals that some fact must be retrieved, and often which one. Moreover, benchmarks rarely require anything beyond accuracy from submissions, allowing memory systems to make unreasonable cost/time tradeoffs to achieve higher scores. We present DolphinBench, a benchmark that evaluates memory directly through an agent's task completion. DolphinBench includes three knowledge-work personas with roughly 500k tokens of user messages per persona and evaluates agents on tasks that depend on information from that history. We verify all 200 tasks per persona by running an agent with and without the relevant history, requiring success with it and failure without it. Finally, we require all evaluations to report total cost and latency alongside accuracy, which enables us to evaluate agent memory systems holistically. No existing memory benchmark combines all three. The dataset and evaluation code are available at https://dolphinbench.ai.
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Rare Event Estimation via Iterative Unalignment
As agents are deployed with increased autonomy, even extremely rare events along their stochastic output trajectories can occur and prove catastrophic. Safe deployment therefore does not depend on whether these events can occur, but on how often they might. We study the problem of estimating the probability of rare events that arise from stochastic variation in the agent's own actions. Estimating this type of risk requires searching over the combinatorially vast space of trajectories. Naive Monte Carlo is computationally prohibitive in this regime, and constructing effective importance sampling (IS) proposals requires coordinated changes to a context-dependent chain of conditional distributions. We develop a new IS method that perturbs the original model's weights to construct the proposal. The proposal is itself a differentiably parameterized language model, enabling gradient-based search over weight space. We formulate an objective that combines a differentiable surrogate for event amplification and an adaptive regularization scheme that dynamically balances amplification against estimator stability. We evaluate our approach on 120M and 2.6B models across three event families spanning 300+ rare events as rare as 10^{-9}, with reference probabilities computed with <10\% relative standard error. In our most verifiable settings, we observe that our IS estimator achieves over 800compute-weighted efficiency gains over naive Monte Carlo for events with probabilities lower than 10^{-7}. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/namkoong-lab/iterative-unalignment.
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Emergent Collusion in Long-Horizon LLM Agent Interaction
LLM agents are increasingly deployed in collaborative settings, yet long-term interaction may give rise to undesirable coordination. We study the emergence of collusion in a long-horizon multi-agent environment: two agents repeatedly complete individual tasks, share task logs, verify each other's work, and receive rewards. We introduce realistic constraints that make compliance with the verification protocol incompatible with reward maximization, and find that agents increasingly deviate from the protocol over repeated interactions. Collusion emerges in 94% of trajectories across 10 models, and more capable models within the same family reach it earlier. Controlled peer interventions show that collusion is shaped by peer behavior, while ablations reveal additional effects of reward structure, the verification feedback agents receive, and their interaction history. In particular, restricting the amount and scope of interaction history available to agents reduces collusion. Overall, our findings show that long-horizon interaction can reshape how agents coordinate in ways that create safety risks.
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Et Tu, Brute? Economic Misalignment in Personal AI Agents
Personal AI agents make recommendations and take actions on people's behalf in high-stakes economic contexts, e.g., buying a flight, choosing health insurance, or selecting a graduate program. The agent is given access to the user's personal context, e.g., their email inbox and a structured profile of personal attributes, with the intention of making an optimal, personalized decision for the user. We show that by simply providing this personal context, the agent steers recommendations based on inferred wealth, without being explicitly instructed to do so. In a suite of 325K experiments on 13 agents across three types of economic decisions (flights, health insurance, and graduate programs), we find that 8 models systematically choose more expensive options for wealthier users when requests are identical. This steering continues even when it directly goes against the user's stated objective: when explicitly instructed to find the cheapest option, some agents still act on the wealth profile they have inferred. It also occurs when wealth is inferred from ambient data, such as emails unrelated to the task. And it persists under privacy controls that block specific attributes: blocking financial attributes largely removes the disparity, but blocking other attributes leaves it unchanged and can increase it by up to 40% for insurance, as agents rely on the remaining signals to infer wealth. Larger and more capable models are no better; Claude Opus 4.8 shows the largest effect. We term this misalignment "adversarial delegation", in which the very conditions that make a personal AI agent useful - access to personal information - enable it to act against the user's interests.
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BackTrend: Evaluating Scientific Weak-Signal Prediction via Backward Reconstruction
Scientific weak signals are early, low-visibility research directions that later become central to mature scientific topics, yet existing resources such as trend tracking, citation forecasting, and foresight reports rarely provide validated reference sets that link concrete early precursors to later paradigms. We introduce BackTrend, a retrospective benchmark in which, given a mature target topic and a temporal evidence constraint, systems must recover two types of precursors: problem-space signals, underrecognized research problems, and solution-space signals, emerging methods for known problems. BackTrend contains 25 mature target topics in artificial intelligence and machine learning and 66 human-validated weak signals, reconstructed from large-scale literature by grounding each candidate in its 2019-2024 publication-frequency trajectory. We evaluate frontier LLMs, RAG systems, and agentic research systems using semantic matching and coverage-based metrics. Current systems often generate plausible but misaligned precursors, exhibiting topic drift, granularity mismatch, near-miss matching, and incomplete coverage; the strongest system achieves only 10.1% F1, while Coverage10 reaches at most 18.5% of the reference signals. Our budget analyses show that additional retrieval and web-search evidence can improve performance up to a moderate budget, but does not by itself close the substantial performance gap.
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SocioVerse2: A Longitudinal Dynamic Social Simulation Framework under a Human-AI Co-evolutionary Paradigm
Social simulation offers the social sciences an experimental instrument that the real world cannot supply, and generative agents have transformed it by acting as silicon samples that unite agent-based modeling with real behavioral data. Existing platforms verify collective behavior, align simulated populations with real societies in cross-sections, and employ autonomous agents for the research process. However, two social science requirements remain without systematic support: intervention in the content of a simulation and the researcher's control over the process that produces it. We present SocioVerse2, which extends SocioVerse 1.0 into a human-AI co-evolutionary paradigm built from two loops and one infrastructure. The longitudinal simulation loop simulates the target population with evolving environments and forks counterfactual branches via interventions. The controllable research loop takes the study itself as an editable state and updates state versions via controllable editing. The social science agentic infrastructure carries both loops through composable skills with researcher checkpoints, a population service over five persona pools, and an environment service over 21 real-world signal sources with point-in-time guarantees. We validate SocioVerse2 across three case families and seven case studies, from reproducing canonical agent-based models to modeling policy processes on real records and nowcasting macro-economic indices beyond the response model's knowledge cutoff. With the human-AI co-evolutionary paradigm, these cases go beyond system demonstrations to become substantive studies that investigate frontier questions in their respective disciplines. Code, data services, and a workbench are released as open-source resources.
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OSWorld-Pro: Process-based Evaluation for Computer Use Agents
Evaluation of Computer-Use Agents (CUAs) is often limited to the final deliverables they create (at the end of hundreds of steps) and assessed with functional verifiers, as seen in OSWorld. However, such evaluation of end-state performance lacks transparency into how and why agents fail in various tasks, obfuscating critical insight for subsequent improvement. For instance, agents that err during keyboard inputs would require a different mitigation strategy from those that fail to precisely provide click-based inputs on the graphical UI. We introduce OSWorld-Pro: a set of over 300 tasks containing over 2800 subgoals to enable the procedural evaluation of CUAs grounded in over 67,000 human annotations. We use robust human-aligned LLM-Judges to evaluate the fulfillment of OSWorld-Pro subgoals and thereby reveal the progress that models make throughout a series of sequentially dependent subgoals. Our findings reveal that OSWorld-Pro is challenging even for state-of-the-art LLMs, with top performers like Claude Opus 5 achieving only 75.7% vs. 83.4% on OSWorld. Furthermore, we identify critical process-focused failure modes of various models (e.g. subgoal-irrelevant actions and click-based mistakes) to provide insights to improve performance and efficiency of CUAs.
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Partner-Specific Affective Precision in Social Active Inference
In multi-agent social settings, model reliability varies across relationships. Beyond inferring what others will do, an agent must calibrate how confidently those inferences should guide policy selection for each relationship. An agent may maintain a well-validated model of one partner, a fragile model of another, and a model under revision for a third; collapsing these into a single confidence estimate loses information relevant to policy selection. We therefore formalize affective precision as a relationship-specific metacognitive estimate of confidence in the current partner model. Each partner's behavioral evidence updates a local confidence estimate that modulates policy precision during selection, regulating how strongly current beliefs are expressed in policy rather than changing the content of those beliefs. Simulations in a multi-partner graded trust game show that partner-local affective precision influences behavior primarily through policy commitment rather than direct improvement of partner-state inference. Because the mechanism tracks partner-response predictability rather than realized payoff, greater confidence produces sharper policy commitment without necessarily producing higher rewards. Under abrupt shifts in social behavior, confidence accumulated from previously reliable predictions can remain behaviorally active after the relationship changes, showing that confidence revision can lag behind social change. Finally, varying precision gain and priors produce distinct trust-calibration dynamics, showing how confidence accumulation and revision depend on model parameters. Together, these results show how relationship-specific affective precision can distinguish social prediction from social policy commitment.
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How BMW Group detects cost anomalies across 14,000 cloud accounts
BMW Group operates CLEA, a FinOps platform monitoring more than 14,000 cloud accounts. This post shows how BMW added automated daily cost anomaly detection, moving from reactive dashboards to proactive alerts using Prophet forecasting, AWS Step Functions, and a serverless pipeline that processes every account for about $50 per month.
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Run Positron on Amazon SageMaker AI for data science workflows
Positron, Posit's IDE for data science, now runs on Amazon SageMaker AI. This post shows how a data scientist explores an Amazon Athena table, validates features in R, trains an XGBoost model in Python, deploys a real-time SageMaker AI endpoint, and reports results with Quarto, all in one governed SageMaker Studio Space.
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When Tomorrow Becomes Today: Self-Evolving Policies for Agentic Time-Series Forecasting
Agentic time series forecasting concerns systems whose underlying mechanisms evolve, making the relative effectiveness of numerical models, reasoning strategies, and intervention rules inherently time-varying. Consequently, a time series agent must adapt the forecasts it produces and the orchestration policy that determines which components to trust and how to coordinate them. The deployment process naturally provides supervision for this adaptation as forecast horizons elapse and realized targets reveal the effectiveness of earlier decisions. Committing all numerical expert forecasts and candidate agent paths before target observation allows each realized outcome to evaluate the entire alternative set, providing delayed feedback without additional annotation. However, existing time series agents primarily incorporate prior experience through forecast refinement, reflection, or retrieval, without systematically converting realized outcomes into persistent updates to the joint orchestration policy governing later origins. To exploit this delayed feedback systematically, we introduce TimEvolve, a frozen-backbone time series agent that converts each realized outcome into persistent joint updates of expert trust, agent path selection, and intervention strength. A temporally ordered predict, reveal, and update protocol applies this feedback to subsequent forecasts. Experiments across eight Time-MMD domains show that TimEvolve achieves the best average MSE and MAE ranks among fifteen methods and the lowest errors on both metrics in seven domains. These results demonstrate the value of learning forecasting policies from the futures encountered during deployment.
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