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478documentos

24últimos 7 días

arXiv AI Papers

PRICE: A Systematic Study of LLM Adaptation Choices for Bitcoin Price Forecasting

Cryptocurrency markets exhibit extreme volatility and non-stationary dynamics that challenge conventional forecasting methods. Although Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown promise for time series forecasting, the combined effects of adaptation choices remain largely unexplored in financial settings. This study introduces PRICE, a structured approach for adapting LLMs to short-term Bitcoin price forecasting. Built on a 4-bit quantized LLaMA-3 8B model, PRICE investigates how fine-tuning, numerical representation, prompting, inference, and decoding jointly influence forecasting performance. PRICE integrates Parameter-efficient fine-tuning with Low-Rank Adaptation (LoRA), Recursive multi-step inference, Integer-rounded numerical representation, Context-Task-Format (CTF) prompting, and Exact zero-temperature decoding. Ablation studies show that each component contributes to forecasting accuracy and reliability. LoRA enables efficient training on limited hardware, recursive inference improves accuracy, integer-rounded values reduce errors, CTF prompting outperforms Chain-of-Thought, Implicit Chain-of-Thought (iCoT), and few-shot prompting, and zero-temperature decoding improves stability during recursive forecasting. Comparative evaluation against eight transformer-based and time-series foundation models shows that PRICE achieves the lowest forecasting errors on both validation and test sets while maintaining robust performance across evaluation periods. Despite being based on a model primarily pretrained on text rather than time-series data, PRICE achieves competitive or superior performance relative to specialized foundation models. These findings demonstrate that adaptation choices critically determine the accuracy and robustness of LLMs for numerical time-series forecasting.

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NVIDIA AI Blog

Sparks Fly: NVIDIA Accelerates Local AI at IFA 2026

Frontier intelligence is going local. At IFA 2026, NVIDIA, Microsoft and its partners are teaming up to provide faster inference and new tools that make agents easier to set up and run locally on NVIDIA hardware. New compact NVIDIA RTX Spark Windows PCs are also coming in October to give AI enthusiasts, developers and creators […]

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arXiv AI Papers

Beyond Endpoint Scores: Time- and Capacity-Conditioned Evaluation of Continual Knowledge Updating

Continual knowledge-updating methods are often declared superior from one final checkpoint and one conventional adapter rank. We show that this can be insufficient to identify the better operating point. Holding a periodic hierarchy fixed, we compare it with cumulative replay over a 24-month Wikidata stream while varying evaluation month, replay LoRA rank, and query formulation. The apparent winner changes across this region: on Qwen2.5-1.5B, the hierarchy's 5.0-point advantage over rank-8 replay becomes an 11.6-point deficit against rank-72 replay, and at high ranks a consolidation-aligned endpoint can suggest a tie while time-averaged replay leads by 9-13 points. The same rank-conditioned reversal appears on Llama-3.2-1B and held-out paraphrases. These results show that method ranking in continual updating can depend jointly on when performance is measured and how much replay-side adaptation capacity the baseline receives. We therefore propose reporting trajectories and capacity sweeps, and declaring a robust winner only when the ordering is stable across the evaluation region; otherwise, comparisons should report winner regions and retention-stability-cost frontiers. Under this protocol, the periodic hierarchy is a lower-update-cost operating point, not a quality winner.

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arXiv AI Papers

Beyond Shallow Alignment: How Post-Training Methods Determine Refusal Circuits And Steering Robustness

How do the methods used to train language models to refuse harmful requests shape how that refusal actually works inside the model? We compare three post-training methods - supervised fine-tuning, reasoning-augmented fine-tuning (training on reasoning chains that justify a safety decision), and preference optimization (ORPO) - across three architecturally distinct models (Llama-3.1-8B, Gemma-2-9B, Qwen3-8B). We find that training method, not just data, reshapes how refusal is computed internally: reasoning-augmented training consistently produces a distinct kind of refusal computation, visible across all three models, while architecture independently shapes internal structure and how reliably refusal can be steered. Most importantly, no method we study achieves all three properties we would want from safe alignment at once: refusal that isn't concentrated in a few fragile components, safety gains that don't cost general capability, and safety behavior correctable through small, targeted edits. We caution against treating current post-training methods as a solved, reliable defense, especially for security-critical use. Code and models are available in https://github.com/hoangcuongnguyen2001/Beyond-Shallow-Alignment.

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arXiv AI Papers

Typological Feature Prediction with Large Language Models: An In-Context Learning Approach

Typological features are widely used in multilingual NLP, and the prediction of such features holds downstream utility. However, existing methods to predict missing values lack interpretable justifications for predictions, while their performance across resource levels and feature types remains underexplored. Given LLMs' abilities in meta-linguistic reasoning and in providing rationales, we investigate LLMs' performance in typological feature prediction via an in-context learning approach with linguistic data from URIEL+ and Glottolog. We find that zero-shot prompting is insufficient, but when given phylogenetic and geographic neighbour evidence, LLMs substantially outperform all baselines without disadvantaging low-resource languages. We further find that most LLM rationales are consistent with the provided evidence, offering a step toward explainable typological feature prediction.

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arXiv AI Papers

LoRA-TSD: Tangent-Space Spectral Descent for LoRA via Muon-Style Updates

Low-rank adaptation (LoRA) is the standard way to fine-tune large models, yet when its two factors are trained independently, the update ignores the geometry of the low-rank weight change it induces. We introduce LoRA-TSD, an optimizer that treats every LoRA step as a tangent vector of the fixed-rank matrix manifold and takes the spectral-norm steepest-descent step of Muon inside that tangent space, mapping the result back to the factors through a retraction native to the LoRA parametrization. The step avoids expensive operations on full weight matrices, and its retraction is up to 2.8cheaper than the truncated-SVD retraction used by prior manifold methods. We prove that the Frobenius-norm version of our surrogate recovers LoRA-Pro, and we identify the tangent-projected gradient, the Riemannian gradient of the manifold, as the stationarity measure natural to LoRA training and computable from the factor gradients alone. Under this measure we give the first global convergence guarantees for both LoRA-Pro and LoRA-TSD, with rates that drive the factor-gradient norms to zero. Across six commonsense and natural-language-inference benchmarks with Llama-3.2-1B, Llama-3.1-8B and Qwen3-32B, LoRA-TSD outperforms every competing LoRA optimizer and stays robust to the adapter rank. Code is available at https://github.com/brain-lab-research/LoRA-TSD.

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arXiv AI Papers

How LLMs Build Fictional Worlds: Setting and Narrative Space in AI-Generated Creative Storytelling

In this paper, we analyze how Large Language Models (LLMs) employ worldbuilding strategies, focusing on setting as one measurable dimension of storyworld construction. We compare 1,000 AI-generated stories per model in English and German with human-authored fiction from Project Gutenberg. Building on prior work, we operationalize setting through five types of narrative space: "action", "perceived," "visual," "descriptive" and "no space", identified using fine-tuned BERT classifiers for German and English. We generate narratives using GPT 4.1, LlaMA 3.3, Mistral 3.2, and Gemma 3 and compare their spatial distributions to a human-authored baseline. We find that human-authored texts predominantly employ "action space," grounding narratives in embodied character-environment interaction, whereas LLMs systematically overproduce "perceived space," emphasizing atmosphere and affect. This divergence remains stable across narrative time. Overall, our findings show that LLMs exhibit worldbuilding patterns that differ consistently from human-authored fiction in ways that are both model-specific and language-sensitive.

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arXiv AI Papers

Beyond Scores: Understanding LLM-as-a-Judge Mechanisms in Summarization Evaluation

LLM-based evaluators of natural language generation (NLG) quality are widely deployed as scoring tools and as automated training signals, yet the internal procedure by which they assign a rating remains poorly understood. We investigate this procedure mechanistically through an eight-attack perturbation taxonomy across the Readability and Adequacy dimensions of NLG quality, a generation pipeline that produces paired clean and corrupt summaries with controlled error intensity and explicit token-level modification maps, and a four-experiment battery of causal tracing, logit-lens vocabulary projection, and attention-head knockout applied to Themis (Llama-3-8B) and Prometheus (Mistral-7B). Both evaluators implement a structured, coherent evaluation pipeline operating in two stages: below layer 15, attention performs local error comparison and routes the result to the final input position; above it, the MLP cascade integrates the signal and writes the rating, with the decision crystallizing in the residual stream at a sharp late layer (L = 26 on Themis, L = 25 on Prometheus). Furthermore, a base-model control at the same scale (Llama-3-8B) reproduces the routing architecture and crystallization but not the stage separation, isolating the two mechanisms that fine-tuning specifically installs, suppression of below-L15 MLP contribution at the last position and a two-layer advance of the crystallization depth, indicating that fine-tuning sculpts an existing substrate rather than building the pipeline from scratch. We release the source code and data at https://github.com/himil-v/judge-mech

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arXiv AI Papers

The First Token Is a Clue: Verbalizing Multi-Token Concepts from the J-lens

The Jacobian Lens (J-lens) is a recent tool for interpreting LLMs. It reads a hidden state as a ranked list of vocabulary tokens, leaving multi-token concepts without a representation of their own. The original J-lens work addresses this limitation with Template Lens, which precomputes vectors for a fixed phrase vocabulary, and Oracle Lens, which fine-tunes components to propose phrases and reconstruct phrase vectors. We ask whether multi-token concepts and their vectors can instead be recovered directly from J-lens and the frozen model. We find that the first token of a multi-token concept is about as readable as a single-token concept. Given the correct first token and source prompt, the frozen model recovers the second token in 88.3% of two-token cases. We show that a vector for the complete concept can be recovered from subsequent hidden states in a single forward pass. We therefore use J-lens to propose first tokens and let the frozen model complete candidate concepts. We then recover a vector for each candidate and score it alongside the complete vocabulary. Across 496 multi-hop clozes on Gemma-3-12B-IT, Llama-3.1-8B, and Qwen3-14B, our method achieves an average Rank@10 of 43.1%, compared with 27.6% for Template Lens. Without the J-lens clue, performance drops to 21.6%, showing that the first-token clue substantially improves readout. Causal concept swaps using the recovered vectors achieve an average succ@10 of 61.4%, compared with 26.2% for Template Lens under the same intervention. These results show that first-token clues can guide multi-token concept recovery, while subsequent hidden states provide vectors for readout and intervention.

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arXiv AI Papers

A Model with No Head and Many Thoughts

Large language models decode by projecting hidden states through a large vocabulary head at every step. This operation is computationally costly and forces all reasoning to be expressed in discrete tokens. We introduce Soft Latent Thinking, a method that replaces the LM head during reasoning with a lightweight projector, enabling autoregressive rollout in embedding space where reasoning steps remain continuous rather than tokenized. Experiments on DeepSeek-Qwen-1.5B and LLaMA-3.2-3B show that Soft Latent Thinking consistently improves pass@k across all k while reducing per-step compute during chain-of-thought. Our method achieves the highest pass@32 among all soft-thinking approaches, demonstrating that effective reasoning can be carried out in continuous space without discrete token generation.

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arXiv AI Papers

Wrong Prediction, Right Answer: Recovering Evidence from Collapsed LLM Sequence Scores

When a large language model fails a reasoning task, it is often assumed to lack the underlying capability. However, this conflates a genuine absence of reasoning with a late-stage output bottleneck. We observe a consistent readout gap across diverse reasoning benchmarks: hidden-state probes successfully decode correct answers even when native sequence scoring completely collapses due to structural biases. To test whether instance-specific logic survives this collapse, we introduce a diagnostic protocol using a minimal, target-label-free additive correction. Fitting just two parameters on as few as 25 unlabeled examples recovers 9--34 accuracy points for Qwen3.5 models, transferring successfully to OLMo-2-1B and Llama-3.1-8B. Crucially, these recovered decisions persist on hard instances unresolved by simple lexical overlap and significantly exceed count-preserving permutation baselines. Our results show that many apparent zero-shot reasoning deficits are expression failures masking intact internal logic, urging a narrower interpretation of benchmark evaluations.

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arXiv AI Papers

Language-Statistical Analysis of Neural Audio Codec Tokens Across Architectures, Corpora, and Noise Conditions

Neural audio codecs (NACs) convert speech into discrete token sequences, and prior work has reported that these sequences follow language-like statistical laws. This paper analyzes the token statistics of 13 NACs spanning multi-codebook residual vector quantization (RVQ), single-codebook VQ, and non-VQ designs, evaluated on three corpora under clean, white-noise, and real-world DEMAND-noise conditions. Zipf and Heaps parameters, unigram entropy, codebook occupancy, and Jensen-Shannon divergence (JSD) are estimated from matched token samples with explicit fit-validity safeguards and family-conditional n-gram orders. Corpus identity explains little variance in any metric, whereas acoustic condition and quantizer meta-category dominate in a metric-dependent way, and unigram entropy is the metric most strongly associated with meta-category. Clean-to-noise JSD computed at a common unigram order is associated with mel-cepstral distortion most clearly under DEMAND noise. The collapse and explosion degradation signatures previously reported for RVQ codecs concentrate in RVQ cells under white and DEMAND noise, respectively; explosion also occurs in non-VQ codecs, and single-codebook VQ codecs shift in occupancy and distribution shape without either signature. These results provide architecture-conditioned conventions for applying language-statistical analysis to NAC tokens.

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arXiv AI Papers

What It Costs to Compose, Rebuild, and Correct Precomputed Memory

Language models can answer from precomputed memory, a model's saved reading of a body of material, reused across requests instead of read again at each. This paper maps where that practice preserves correctness and the conditions under which it fails. Across experiments on Llama-3.1-8B-Instruct using both saved key-value caches and trained compressions of them, precomputed memory degrades when assembled from separately prepared parts, stays current only through rebuilds costing a large fraction of full preparation in our measurements, and ignores corrections served beside it conditional on phrasing. If precomputed memories can be served alongside one another, be cost-efficiently rebuilt, and be superseded by new information arriving in real-time, they can serve as a way to avoid re-feeding context to a model over repeated queries. The implication of our results for a deployed system that deals with a variety of queries is that precomputed memories are best rebuilt on the cadence at which new information changes what the memory was originally computed from. Both warm-rebuilding trained compressions of key-value caches and serving specifically-phrased updates beside a memory, as pasted text or injected cache state, show particular promise for keeping precomputed memories current, the latter as an interim measure between rebuilds, and we measure the cost and name the remaining questions associated with each.

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arXiv AI Papers

AdaPath: Query-Adaptive Path-Finding via Path-Bank for Multi-Hop Implicit Biomedical KGQA

Path-finding over knowledge graphs has become an effective way to ground LLM reasoning on multi-hop questions. However, biomedical QA introduces two distinct challenges that general-domain methods are not designed for: (i) queries do not expose intermediate reasoning and can be answered through multiple valid pathways, and (ii) biomedical knowledge graphs are densely connected, so path-finding methods easily take wrong turns. To address these challenges, we propose AdaPath, a path-finding framework that retrieves query-adaptive meta-paths from Path-Bank, which captures both query semantics and biomedical knowledge graph structure. AdaPath provides the missing cues in biomedical queries while effectively pruning dense knowledge graph neighborhoods during multi-hop reasoning. We further release BioStrat-QA, a biomedical KGQA benchmark that stratifies multi-hop queries by how much intermediate reasoning they expose. Across biomedical KGQA benchmarks, AdaPath consistently outperforms baselines, sustaining meaningful path-finding even when multi-hop queries expose less surface information. The source code is available at https://github.com/Jun-Hyeong-Kim/AdaPath.

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arXiv AI Papers

Memory-First Fact-Checking: A Knowledge-Graph-Grounded Multi-Agent System for Misinformation Detection

This paper introduces a hybrid fact-checking framework that integrates Knowledge Graph-based semantic memory with adversarial multi-agent reasoning for explainable misinformation detection. The proposed system follows a memory-first, web-fallback architecture, in which input claims are initially evaluated against a dual-index Knowledge Graph through Sentence-BERT-based semantic retrieval and Natural Language Inference. When the evidence retrieved from the graph is insufficient to support a reliable decision, the framework collects information from trusted web sources and assesses it using an adversarial tribunal composed of support, contradiction, and judging agents. A graph-aware confidence mechanism combines semantic similarity, NLI confidence, and structural graph evidence to determine whether internal knowledge is sufficient, thereby reducing unnecessary web retrieval. Following verification, validated information is transformed into structured triples and incorporated into the Knowledge Graph, supporting the incremental expansion of the system's semantic memory. Experimental evaluation on a curated COVID-19 misinformation benchmark demonstrates that the proposed framework achieves an accuracy of 97.4\% and a macro-averaged F1-score of 92.6% on resolved claims, outperforming a Llama~3.3~70B baseline, which obtains an accuracy of 87.7% and a macro-averaged F1-score of 86.3%.

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