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209últimos 7 días

Retimed Bellman Flows: Escaping the Impossible Triangle of Velocity Bootstrapping

Flow critics learn return distributions by transporting Gaussian noise to Bellman endpoints via continuous velocity fields. While velocity bootstrapping stabilizes training by querying a successor teacher, existing methods face a structural dilemma: on straight paths, no residual-free same-time affine mapping can preserve Gaussian initial noise while maintaining an unbiased target. To overcome this limitation, we introduce Retimed Bellman Flows (ReBF). ReBF queries the teacher critic at a dynamically shifted earlier flow time, aligning intermediate student and teacher trajectories. By combining this retimed clock with fresh, decoupled noise generation, ReBF constructs a provably conditionally unbiased velocity target that preserves the Bellman fixed point and contracts under Wasserstein distances. Empirically, ReBF reduces W_1 distance to ground-truth return distributions by up to 7.7on synthetic MRPs and outperforms existing flow critics across 38 challenging OGBench and D4RL offline reinforcement learning tasks.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Rank Collapse Is Recoverable, Growing |Q| Is Not: Out-of-Sample Early Warning for Value Divergence in High-UTD Soft Actor-Critic

Raising the update-to-data (UTD) ratio breaks off-policy critics in two ways grouped as "plasticity loss": collapsing representations and growing value magnitude |Q|. We separate them in Soft Actor-Critic (SAC) with scaled critics (width 2048, no normalization). Collapse is survivable: at UTD ratio 16, HalfCheetah critics with most units dormant keep learning, and the training guard, which stops runs whose loss or |Q| explodes, never flags them. Within one high-UTD SAC configuration, runs start close together, and how far a critic's _{10}|Q| has climbed by step 15k, its early growth, ranks the runs by how soon the guard flags them. At 15k, a flagged run's |Q| sits a median of over a hundredfold below its flag level, yet the climb's rate already orders the flags (Harrell's C and out-of-sample AUC 0.78 on Walker2d, 0.98 on Ant, at UTD ratio 4). Dormancy does not. Aborting on this rate saves about a tenth of held-out Walker2d compute and stays net-positive live. A LayerNorm critic lowers the rate, removes the flag on Walker2d at UTD ratio 4 and lowers the return.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Right Answer, Wrong Reason: Accuracy, Consistency, and Consensus Are Misleading Indicators of LLM Faithfulness in Clinical Decision Support

Clinical Large Language Models (LLMs) achieve strong medical-exam accuracy; however, a correct answer does not guarantee that the explanation names the concepts that actually drove the decision. We introduce three lightweight, directly interpretable metrics for this faithfulness gap: the Explanation Stability Index (ESI), which measures reasoning consistency across repeated queries; the Causal Faithfulness Score (CFS), which tests whether cited concepts drive predictions via concept ablation; and the Perturbation Stability Score (PSS), which measures robustness to semantic-preserving paraphrases. By evaluating six LLMs on 150 MedQA-USMLE questions (900 model-question observations), we found that only 23.3% of the cited clinical concepts were causally necessary. Correct answers had lower CFS than incorrect answers (0.212 vs. 0.398), answer consistency negatively predicted CFS (Spearman r = -0.466), and model pairs could agree on answers while sharing only 8.8% of cited reasoning concepts. These results show that accuracy, consistency, and consensus are incomplete safety signals for clinical decision-making support. The evidence is behavioral rather than mechanistic: concept ablation tests counterfactual sensitivity of outputs, not internal circuits.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

USAI-Quant: A Quantitative Reasoning Benchmark for Vision-Language Models in Built Environments

Large vision-language models (VLMs) have emerged as a powerful paradigm for urban and spatial AI. However, current state-of-the-art large VLMs still struggle with quantitative reasoning on remote sensing imagery. Existing benchmarks and algorithms are predominantly based on qualitative Visual Question Answering (VQA), providing limited insights into the quantitative reasoning capabilities of VLMs for built environment metrics. To address this gap, we develop Quantitative Urban and Spatial AI benchmark (USAI-Quant), the first benchmark designed to quantitatively evaluate VLM's reasoning capabilities on built environment metrics via remote sensing imagery. USAI-Quant is curated from the 335 largest U.S. cities, aligning high-resolution remote sensing images with quantitative built environment metrics. We then evaluate both general-purpose and remote sensing VLMs (RS-VLMs) by applying VQAs to tens of built environment metrics across three complexity levels. Our results reveal that current state-of-the-art models consistently fall short on numeric reasoning tasks. We further conduct in-depth analyses across models, question types, and geographic locations, uncovering insights into performance variability and task-specific challenges.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

OpenTumorBoard: A Real-World Benchmark of Multidisciplinary Tumor Board Discussion Trajectories

Multidisciplinary tumor boards integrate multimodal clinical observations and longitudinal patient histories through specialist discussions, yet benchmarks rarely capture these real-world trajectories. We introduce OpenTumorBoard, a benchmark with 611 patient cases and 19,157 discussion turns across ten specialist roles, transcribed from 12,534 minutes of publicly available tumor board recordings on YouTube. The benchmark evaluates two settings: SPECIALIST TURN, in which an LLM responds to a clinically significant question posed during a real discussion, and BOARD SIMULATION, in which it generates an entire back-and-forth discussion and reaches a consensus on therapy recommendations, surgical plans, next actions and clinical trial matching. Evaluation of 14 general-purpose frontier and medical LLMs reveals substantial limitations: the best models score 3.43 out of 5 in clinical equivalence to specialist answers and 2.78 out of 5 in alignment with recorded board conclusions. Supervised finetuning and reinforcement learning improve performance on a held-out test set, suggesting that real-world discussion trajectories can support model adaptation. Three M.D. experts review a subset of the benchmark, finding high information coverage and factuality of patient cases and strong fidelity of extracted consensus conclusions. We will release OpenTumorBoard and its automated curation pipeline to support the development and evaluation of LLMs for multidisciplinary, personalized cancer decision-making.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Beyond Accuracy: Counterfactual Fragility and Demographic Bias in Clinical Evaluation of LLMs

Clinical LLM evaluation often emphasizes answer accuracy; however, accuracy alone does not test counterfactual consistency or demographic robustness. We evaluated six LLMs on 150 MedQA USMLE questions using two automated perturbation tests to assess their performance. The counterfactual validity (CFV) test asked each model to make a minimal, plausible clinical change that would make a different answer correct. The demographic robustness test added six demographic prefixes to the same vignette and compared the answers and explanations with a no demographic baseline. Of the 900 CFV attempts, 228 (25.3 %) were valid and 672 were invalid. Across 5,400 demographic comparisons, 1,097 answers were changed (20.3%). Automated judging identified 3,128 stereotype evidence flags, including 1,932 in the broad Other category. MedGemma 27B achieved the highest accuracy (87.1%) and CFV (63.3%), lowest answer change rate (16.0%), and low mean Explanation Demographic Dissonance (EDD) score (0.169). However, its accuracy still exceeded its CFV, indicating that correct answers do not guarantee reliable performance on the counterfactual validity task. OpenBioLLM had the highest answer change rate and EDD, whereas GLM had the highest stereotype flag rate. These findings show that accuracy, CFV, answer stability, EDD, and stereotype evidence capture different evaluation aspects. Because all judgments were automated and no clinician validation was available, the results support safety screening but do not establish clinical deployability of the model.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

PlanGuard: A Guardrail for Multi-Step Plan Safety in Embodied Agents

Embodied task planners may produce multi-step plans whose subtask dependencies and interactions with the environment create physical risks during execution. Yet existing safeguards overlook such compositional risks, as general-purpose guardrails focus on semantic harm and embodied safety detectors assess subtasks in isolation. To address this gap, we introduce PlanGuard, the first pre-execution detector that evaluates the physical safety of a complete multi-step plan in its current environment. For training and evaluation, we construct a Multi-Step Plan Safety (MSP-Safe) dataset through paired task construction, plan generation using diverse planners, and safety annotation by three judges. Task-oriented SFT on MSP-Safe establishes fundamental plan-safety assessment capabilities, yet a substantial gap remains between compact models suitable for real-time deployment and stronger but costlier large models. Accordingly, we propose Strong-Teacher Adaptive Compensation for On-Policy Distillation (STAC-OPD), which provides compact models with adaptive strong-teacher supervision along their on-policy trajectories. It combines token-level distribution transfer from a fine-tuned strong teacher with probability-routed sequence-level compensation, retaining student-generated targets when the student favors the reference safety decision and using teacher-reconstructed targets otherwise. Across all test subsets, PlanGuard-2B achieves average 87.15% ACC and 87.21% F1, demonstrating effective whole-plan physical-risk detection at compact model scale. Code and dataset will be publicly released.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

T^5: Twin-Critic Training for Token-Level Thoughts in Reinforcement Mid-Training

Reinforcement mid-training lets language models learn internal thoughts from unlabeled text, but efficient token-level credit assignment remains challenging. Existing group-relative methods require costly repeated generation. Learned critics offer single-rollout feedback, but accurate return prediction alone does not ensure reliable policy updates. Our analysis shows how training--inference mismatch and PPO clipping prevent a common offset in advantage estimates from cancelling out, introducing additional update drift. We propose {}, a twin-critic method that calibrates token-level advantages from a single generated trajectory. After warmup and held-out qualification, the critics provide two advantage estimates, combined using action-dependent weights learned through a conditional-moment saddle-point objective. This objective brings the average advantage at each prefix toward zero, while a signal-retention constraint prevents the correction from erasing the learning signal. Sharing information across text positions avoids repeated sampling of each prefix. Theoretically, we characterize optimal mixing under the signal-retention constraint and establish an upper bound on residual mean-induced drift. Experiments show that, compared with the state-of-the-art critic-free method, {} improves mean benchmark performance by 7.8\% and reduces mean training-step time by up to 63.4\%.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

CT-OPD: Counterfactual Trace On-Policy Distillation for Diffusion Vision-Language Models

Diffusion vision-language models generate answers by gradually resolving masked tokens, making accurate conditional prediction in partially resolved states central to post-training. Masking completed answers yields coherent contexts and targets, but prescribed masks do not reflect the model's reveal decisions. Its trajectories capture these decisions, yet their provisional visible tokens can conflict with the target response. Outcome-based reinforcement learning follows these trajectories but provides only response-level feedback, which loses contrast when sampled rewards tie. To align coherent token-level supervision with the model's reveal decisions, we introduce Counterfactual Trace On-Policy Distillation (CT-OPD), which combines completed teacher responses with trajectory masks from the current student. CT-OPD retokenizes each teacher response in the student's vocabulary and extracts unresolved-position masks at successive stages of the student's reverse process. For each mask, it discards provisional rollout values and reconstructs the partial state from the teacher endpoint, so the supervised positions follow the current trajectory while the visible context and targets remain consistent with the same response. The student is trained on these reconstructed states with its native categorical loss, and trajectories are refreshed as the model evolves. Across dense and sparse diffusion architectures, CT-OPD consistently enhances multimodal understanding and reasoning capabilities, with gains of up to 9.80 points on the nine-benchmark average. On the unified understanding-and-generation architecture, it also improves both visual understanding and image generation, showing that the same principle transfers across architectures and modalities. Ablations further attribute these gains to coherent reconstruction and current-model trajectory masks.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Copper-Policy: Focus on the Representation for Robust Robot Manipulation

World Action Models (WAMs) acquire behavioral priors by modeling future scene evolution, but predicting detailed futures in pixel or latent space incurs substantial cost. Recent evidence that co-training gains persist without test-time generation raises a question: what must a WAM learn to improve control? We introduce Copper-Policy, which learns a compact World representation with the policy rather than relying on a predefined target space. Through temporal joint-embedding prediction, it predicts future observation embeddings conditioned on task intention without reconstructing pixels. This prediction and action decoding shape the representation jointly, while the policy retains access to current-frame spatial detail for execution. Representation analyses show that the learned features better separate task-driven change from perturbations and provide complementary information for control. Compact prediction targets reduce training tokens per sample, enabling a 2B-parameter model trained in 9.67 hours on 8RTX 5090 GPUs and 6faster than Fast-WAM on matched A100 GPUs. Copper-Policy outperforms every compared method without embodied pretraining on RoboTwin and several embodied-pretrained VLAs on LIBERO-Plus (80.85%). On three challenging real-robot tasks, it performs comparably to π_{0.5} and attains a higher average score. Together, these results show that Copper-Policy combines strong control performance with efficient training.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Agentic Network Traffic Monitoring

As the use of agentic artificial intelligence increases in nearly every industry, there exists a widening attack surface. It is necessary to monitor agents to ensure that agents are acting in a way that is aligned with the users intent. Auditing an agent's network traffic provides a clear record of the agent interactions. This work presents a novel approach to monitoring the network traffic of agentic systems using complex valued hypersparse traffic matrices by integrating DBOS (DataBase OS), the OneSparse PostgreSQL database, and the GraphBLAS math library. To develop these concepts an agentic simulator was constructed, allowing a varying numbers of AI agents to collectively survey a virtual environment using different strategies. The resulting network traffic matrices enable easy monitoring of the AI agents.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Forecasting Intraday USD/CAD Exchange Rate with News-Derived Monetary-Policy Signals

Monetary-policy announcements and central-bank communications play a central role in foreign exchange markets, yet their qualitative, unstructured form makes their forecasting value difficult to quantify. While prior research has largely focused on sentiment extracted from financial news, comparatively little is known about the relative contribution of different dimensions of monetary-policy communication. Existing studies primarily evaluate whether textual information improves overall forecasting performance but provide limited insight into which communication channels drive such improvements. To address this gap, this paper introduces a statistical attribution methodology that decomposes monetary-policy communication into interpretable channels and quantifies their incremental forecasting contribution under false-discovery-rate control. Monetary-policy news is transformed into structured communication signals using large language models (LLMs) and temporal feature engineering. These signals are evaluated using rolling-window experiments with tree-based machine-learning models. The results show that monetary-policy communication contains measurable predictive information. Attribution analysis shows that predictive value is concentrated in a small subset of signals, with communication timing providing the strongest individual feature-level contribution, targeted communication-activity measures also contributing positively, and LLM-derived sentiment providing complementary information at the group level. The findings indicate that communication-based forecasting value extends beyond sentiment alone and that attribution, rather than aggregate accuracy alone, is central to evaluating news-derived signals.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Learnable Randomization as Commitment Against Adaptive Optimizers

A pricing page can walk the posted price up to the last amount a buyer still accepts, a recommender can hold back a better item for a barely acceptable promoted one, and a classifier can shift its boundary once applicants change their features. The system predicts the response and then picks the menu that serves its own objective, so the surplus above the user's cutoff is taken. Playing the single best action publishes that cutoff, while noise on actions the user would never take throws away payoff and teaches the platform that a worse menu is still acceptable. We study unpredictable near-optimal policies (UNOP), which mix uniformly on near-best actions that remain individually rational. The mixture is a commitment about the response. On a finite price grid, when the best sure-demand price strictly out-earns the randomized band, a seller who already knows the curve posts below the band, and the purchase that occurs is deterministic. Knowing that curve is not the same as predicting the next draw. The mixture can be learned and the optimizer can match its best response, while the user's payoff stays higher because the mixture changes which action is targeted. In pricing and in policy-aware recommendation this leaves more surplus than greedy play when the platform optimizes against the curve and more than one action is acceptable. The gain goes away under quality ranking, a singleton near-optimal set, a wrong utility estimate, or a short-horizon explorer. That is also where mixing should be turned off if the other side is trying to cooperate.

The Verge AIhace 2 meses

Can Cloudflare CEO Matthew Prince save the web from AI?

Today, I’m talking with Matthew Prince, who is CEO of Cloudflare. This episode is part of a two-part series on the future of business. Matthew…

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Statistical attribute alignment for black-box generative AI via output post-processing

Generative AI systems are increasingly used, but aligning their outputs with user requirements poses a continuing challenge. Here, we aim to ensure that the distribution of an attribute of an AI-generated output aligns with a user-specified target. This is motivated by examples such as fairness, where we want to ensure that a protected attribute (e.g., gender, race, or age categories) follows a desired distribution, and synthetic data generation, where we want the generated data to be representative of a target distribution. We study the practically important black-box access setting, where a user can repeatedly query a generative AI model. The goal is to return m1 outputs whose joint attribute distribution is as close as possible to this target. For both exact and approximate alignment, we develop algorithms that minimize the expected number of queries to the generator, and we further demonstrate their optimality as the number of requested outputs m . Experiments on text-to-image generation and geocoded persona generation tasks show that our post-processing algorithms improve statistical attribute alignment, complementing prompting-based interventions.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

User Model Extraction via Belief Self-Distillation

Large language models (LLMs) implicitly infer attributes of their users and adapt their behavior accordingly, yet these beliefs remain difficult to inspect and causally manipulate. We introduce Belief Self-Distillation (BSD), a unified read-write framework that bridges linear and causal probing by learning a compact user representation that can be both decoded and written back into the model. The frozen LLM acts as its own teacher, distilling beliefs from natural conversations without external annotations. Unlike conventional probing, BSD isolates not only information present in activations, but a state whose causal role can be directly tested. Across multiple model families, BSD faithfully recovers user beliefs and enables substantially stronger interventions than matched hidden-state steering. Crucially, we find that refusal depends not only on the request, but on the model's inferred user intent: changing this belief alters refusal while holding the request fixed. We further uncover a striking cross-model regularity: independently trained LLMs converge on a shared geometry for representing their users. Together, these results reveal implicit user models as readable and causally writable internal states with direct implications for AI safety, shaping how models condition safety decisions on whom they believe they are interacting with.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Common-Mode Collapse and Recovery in Direct Feedback Alignment

Direct feedback alignment (DFA) trains hidden layers through fixed random projections of output error. With tanh hidden units and independent sigmoid outputs, plain stochastic gradient descent can stall near the loss of a constant predictor of class frequencies. We trace this stall to the error's common mode, the component shared across inputs. An exact mean-covariance decomposition separates a rank-one update formed by the mean teaching signal and mean presynaptic activity. Its leading component drives tanh units toward saturation. At initialization, random feedback provides no systematic correction of the shared error on average; readout learning limits its duration. A reduced model initialized from the network, without fitted parameters, predicts the concentration of activation sensitivity across 48 settings. On MNIST, class decodability largely survives collapse, but readout learning remains slow at a fixed learning rate. Adam learns faster despite deeper collapse. Calibrating the baseline readout to the class prior suppresses collapse and speeds learning; weaker feedback trades less collapse for slower learning. Replacing errors by their signs sustains collapse; subtracting the signal's batch mean prevents sustained collapse and improves learning in the tested setting. Related effects occur in deeper and convolutional networks and on CIFAR-10, with severity and cost depending on the readout, optimizer and input statistics.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

MexHat: A Dataset for Hate Speech Detection in Mexican Spanish Videos

Ensuring online safety through content monitoring had raised Hate Speech Detection as a crucial task to be addressed. By essence the task demands the capture of contextual cues, which are essential for a precise understanding of the content's intent. Although automated detection approaches for the task have advanced significantly, the scarcity of non-English resources persists, limiting the ability of models to adapt to the subtle, context-dependent, and culturally related nature of multimodal content. In this paper, we introduce MexHat, a video dataset designed to capture the linguistic and cultural cues for the hate-speech detection task in a Mexican Spanish context. Our dataset comprises around 1k video clips annotated across two tasks: a three-way class evaluation (no negative content, offensive content and hate-speech content), and a fine-grained class evaluation including three hate-speech sub-categories. The dataset statistics and the baseline results highlight the inherent challenges associated with the task. Disclaimer: This paper contains sensitive content that may be disturbing to some readers.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

EAServe: Encode-Aware Disaggregated Serving for Multimodal Large Language Models

Disaggregating the two stages, Prefill and Decode, onto separate GPU pools is now a standard optimization for (text-only) LLM serving. However, multimodal LLMs (MLLMs), which add a third phase, Encode, pose new challenges for resource allocation. Encode turns images, video, or audio into embeddings that the language model can consume, yielding a three-stage Encode-Prefill-Decode (EPD) pipeline. Existing frameworks offer only partial answers: text-only PD systems lack Encode, while EPD frameworks expose it as a separate service without regulating downstream request flow. The pipeline also carries a structural resource imbalance: every request enters through Encode before downstream work can begin, yet per-request execution leaves the encode GPU severely underutilized even at high loads, starving the downstream Prefill and Decode workers. Addressing this, we reposition Encode as the control point of the EPD pipeline, exposing three tightly coupled dimensions: when work enters downstream, where prefill executes, and how the GPU is shared. We instantiate this in EAServe across two co-designed layers. Its runtime manages load-adaptive micro-batching, rate-controlled partial offload to a co-resident prefill worker, and dynamic SM partitioning for predictable co-location. The configuration layer, Hybrid Auto Selection (HAS), navigates the joint space of GPU allocation, encode batch size, and offload ratio by pruning unbalanced allocations with per-stage capacity profiling and refining the remainder through TPE-based Bayesian optimization. Evaluated on three MLLM architectures spanning image, video, and audio, EAServe delivers up to 4.3x and 1.7x higher goodput than NVIDIA Dynamo and vLLM, respectively, under identical SLO constraints, sustains more balanced and higher GPU utilization across the EPD pipeline, and reaches near-optimal configurations faster than baseline search methods.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Two Conformal Constructions for Adaptive Within-Document AI-Text Screening

We study false-alert control when screening for text generated by artificial intelligence (AI). The screening procedure selects document prefixes and detectors from observed evidence and may stop before exhausting its inspection budget. We give two finite-sample constructions under document-level exchangeability between human calibration documents and a new null document, with no restriction on dependence among tokens within a document. Construction A registers a finite family of prefix-detector scores and allocates a false-alert budget across their conformal ranks. A union bound protects any executed subset of that family. Construction B calibrates the complete-path maximum of a development-fixed adaptive policy. Each partial-path maximum is bounded by the complete maximum, so a terminal conformal rank protects early stopping without splitting the error budget. We prove marginal control of any false alert across the permitted inspection path and derive necessary calibration counts for rejection. We also state oracle testing, distribution-shift, and independent-audit bounds with their additional assumptions. Both constructions protect stopping within their specified scope; neither proof constructs an e-process or justifies multiplying conformal ranks. Detection power and computational savings remain questions for empirical evaluation.