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arXiv AI Papers

Asymmetric Bidirectional Predictive Dynamics in Google Search and COVID-19 Time Series: A Multi-Horizon Forecast-Error Analysis

Online search activity is widely used as a digital trace of information seeking during epidemics, but its predictive value is often reduced to correlation, a selected lag, or a single forecast-error score. We examine eight pre-specified Google Trends-COVID-19 pairs in both directions using matched LightGBM forecasts over rolling 400-day windows and horizons of 1-14 days. Log-RMSE gain is combined with forecast-error distribution entropy (FEDE), which captures horizon-dependent changes in the signed error distribution. The resulting directional predictive signature comprises response class, RMSE effect, FEDE endpoint and early-slope responses, persistence across rolling regimes, and horizon profile. For screening candidate directions, we also introduce a relative persistence-weighted directional predictive response strength (DPRS) on a within-study 0-100 scale; 100 denotes the strongest observed response in the comparison set, not an absolute coupling maximum. The pairs show concordant, RMSE-only, FEDE-only, and mixed responses. "loss of smell" -> reported cases is accuracy-dominant, with mean log-RMSE gain 0.104 (about 9.9% equivalent RMSE reduction) and DPRS 100, whereas the reverse direction is FEDE-dominant (D_FEDE=0.048; DPRS=42). "covid test" -> positive rate is FEDE-dominant (D_FEDE=0.039; positive in 72% of windows; DPRS=98) despite negative RMSE gain, while "lockdown" -> stringency is the clearest concordant case (DPRS=78). World-level symptom/case pairs are less persistent. Thus, forecast accuracy and error-distribution dynamics are complementary, predictive effects can be direction- and metric-dependent, and forecast horizon is part of the relationship. Aggregated regime-level patterns should not be extrapolated to individual time points or interpreted as evidence of causality.

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arXiv AI Papers

Agentic Ensemble with Vision-Language Models for Visual Anomaly Detection

Visual anomaly detection aims to detect abnormal objects, while anomaly samples are often scarce during model training. Assembling multiple pretrained detectors can help by leveraging their transferable image scores and anomaly maps. However, most existing ensemble methods apply fixed fusion rules over saved predictions which struggle when pretrained detectors clearly disagree due to different training objectives, priors, and visual representations. To this end, we design AnomalyAgent, a post-training fusion framework for accurate visual anomaly detection. AnomalyAgent aligns heterogeneous scores and maps, summarizes score- and region-level disagreement, and treats fusion as a finite action-selection problem. It implements two types of actions: 1) score actions that determine how to fuse image-level detector confidence via consensus, robust aggregation, detector weighting, or score-map consistency; 2) map actions that fuse dense anomaly responses via consensus, detector weighting, geometric aggregation, or disagreement correction. A constrained vision-language model (VLM) is introduced to inspect high-conflict samples and select valid score action and map action to produce the final prediction. We evaluate AnomalyAgent on MVTec AD and VisA as primary benchmarks, together with seven additional public anomaly benchmarks and Real-IAD for large-scale score-level evaluation. Across these benchmarks, AnomalyAgent consistently improves over equal-weight fusion and achieves the best mean image AUROC and pixel AP among the compared fusion methods on MVTec AD and VisA, while demonstrating robust transfer across additional anomaly domains.

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arXiv AI Papers

Learning Computational Structure for Sample-Efficient Prediction

Statistical learning in high dimensions suffers from the curse of dimensionality. Fortunately, many functions of practical interest are compositionally sparse, meaning they admit a composition of local functions, each depending on only a few variables, allowing sample complexity to depend on local arity rather than ambient dimension. Yet realizing this benefit requires exploiting hidden compositional structure, which theory does not establish for practical gradient-based training. We study this gap with CSFRBench, a controlled benchmark that hides the target's compositional computation during training but retains it for diagnosis, and find that dense networks and sparsity-based baselines leave much of that benefit unrealized. Inspired by the spatial organization of biological neural circuits, we introduce Learned Wiring (LeWi): each neuron has a learned low-dimensional embedding, only nearby neurons connect, and embeddings and weights are trained jointly. LeWi improves sample efficiency on targets with hierarchical structure, intermediate reuse, or independent modules. Across 32 additional targets generated by independently sampled computation graphs, LeWi is the most sample-efficient method not given the target graph, with 27% lower mean learning-curve area than dense networks. Dense networks perform better on targets with a single high-arity function. LeWi's representations and connectivity align with the target computation. On 17 world-model prediction tasks spanning control, navigation, and manipulation, LeWi beats the dense baseline on 16 and wins 99/119 baseline comparisons. These results show that jointly learning connectivity and weights can exploit computational structure to improve sample efficiency.

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arXiv AI Papers

Discount Yourself: Self-inclusive Freshness-weighted Gossip for Decentralised Learning under Client Outages

Decentralised federated learning (DFL) trains personalised models on devices that average with their neighbours rather than with a central server. Real devices, however, are often offline for hours or days, and a client returning from an outage can recover only by aggregating the models its neighbourhood holds. We observe that the stalest of these models is usually the client's own, a case that existing staleness-aware rules, which discount only the models a client receives, do not address. We formalise aggregation after an outage as estimating the state of a fully available network and derive three principles. First, the receiver must be discounted like any neighbour. Every rule that weights it at least as much as each neighbour has an error that grows without bound with the outage, whereas discounting all candidates by relative staleness keeps the error bounded. Second, staleness must be measured as inherited lag rather than age, since local training resets a model's age but not the lag it absorbed from stale neighbours. We introduce the effective lag, which tracks this quantity at the cost of one scalar per message. Third, the discount must be steep, because absorbed lag persists in every later round. These principles define Self-inclusive Freshness-weighted Gossip (SFG), a family of drop-in aggregation rules with the communication and computation of decentralised federated averaging, whose guarantees hold for the stale receiver itself. On three image benchmarks and eight outage processes, including real smartphone availability traces, the lag-based members SFG-L and SFG-Cut consistently outperform decentralised federated averaging and recent age-of-information rules, and ablations show that each principle is necessary. The analysis also explains why tuned limited merging from gossip learning is effective.

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arXiv AI Papers

Humans Correct Their Judgments Through Debate, but Weaker AI Models Do Not

How can we effectively oversee AI systems that surpass human intelligence? AI Safety via Debate proposes that two AI systems argue opposing positions and a judge, either a human or a weaker model, decides which is correct. By facilitating supervisors in providing high-quality training signals, debate aims to encourage truthful and safe behavior from AI systems whose capabilities exceed our own. However, human judgment is not neutral: people often rely on biases which advanced AI systems may learn to exploit. Drawing on insights from collective intelligence and social cognition, this paper investigates whether debate can guide human and LLM supervisors toward the truth despite their prior beliefs. We evaluate several protocol configurations. We also explore setups inspired by the wisdom of the crowd such as the number and diversity of judges, as well as interaction mechanisms including deliberation and voting. Overall, we find that debate increases accuracy relative to prior beliefs for human judges, whereas the consultancy baseline, in which a single expert argues for one answer, does not. For weaker language models, however, the results are mixed: debate provides no comparable gains in most settings and can even reduce accuracy. Among multi-judge protocols, weighted voting produces the highest accuracy for human supervisors, whereas for LLMs none of them significantly improves group accuracy, even as the number of judges increases. Notably, the behavior of minority judges in non-diverse deliberation protocols suggests that, under symmetric settings, incorrect positions could be more persuasive than correct ones. These findings support debate as a viable path toward scalable human oversight, but cast doubt on its benefits for weaker AI supervisors, raising concerns about fully automated training and control pipelines in high-stakes settings.

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arXiv AI Papers

Beyond 4 bits: Data-Centric Post-training Quantization and Recovery

Post-training quantization (PTQ) compresses the weights of a trained model with limited compute and data. Down to 4 bits it is near-lossless, but at 2 bits scalar PTQ configurations fall to chance-level accuracy. We study three choices usually treated as implementation details that matter little at 4 bits but decide 2-bit quality: the quantization representation, the calibration data, and the recovery fine-tuning data, across six dense and mixture-of experts models (ranging from 3.8 to 32B parameters). Representation is the largest factor and vector codebooks restore usable models where scalar PTQ pipelines collapse. Most of the remaining loss in accuracy is on generative tasks, and the amount of performance drop is model-dependent. Furthermore, at a short recovery budget, calibration and recovery data are coupled. The best recovery data depends on the calibration data, so the two must be chosen jointly. The resulting recipe involves a vector codebook representation, a small task-aligned calibration mixture, and an inexpensive codebook-only recovery stage. Including codebooks, it uses about 2.3 effective bits per weight and retains 89 to 97\% of full-precision question-answering (QA) accuracy where scalar PTQ is at chance, and, including recovery, uses 1.4 to 30less compute than the strongest quantization-aware-training (QAT) baseline.

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arXiv AI Papers

GraphCast-Mamba: Learning Non-Markovian Corrections for Weather Forecasting

Unresolved atmospheric processes can introduce history dependence beyond the short input windows used by many weather forecasting models. We introduce GraphCast--Mamba, which augments a frozen, pretrained 1^GraphCast backbone with a trainable Mamba correction branch combining graph message passing and Mamba layers. The branch retains a temporal memory state across successive six-hour forecast steps, learning corrections informed by temporal context beyond GraphCast's two-frame input. Training is confined to the correction branch, using ERA5 data from 2015--2021. After 2,500 optimizer updates, including warm-up, the selected model achieves substantial improvements relative to the uncorrected GraphCast backbone. It reduces the GraphCast loss (normalized weighted mean-squared error; MSE) by 14.42% when aggregated over the full ten-day forecast and by 21.66% at day 10 (240 h after forecast initialization). At this final forecast lead time, root-mean-square error (RMSE) decreases by 7.09--14.60% across all 11 evaluated variable groups, spanning temperature, wind, pressure, geopotential, specific humidity, and precipitation. These results demonstrate broad improvements in ten-day weather forecasts through a short correction-training schedule while retaining the pretrained backbone.

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arXiv AI Papers

Variance Reduction with Delayed Feedback for Non-Convex Optimization

We study variance reduction for non-convex optimization when gradient evaluations return with a delay. The server can update the parameter while earlier evaluations remain unfinished. We first analyze an ordered recursive momentum estimator for stochastic optimization. Under average smoothness and bounded variance, its oracle complexity is O(1+σ^2ε^{-2}+LΔ_f(1+σ/ε+τ)ε^{-2}), where the target is an expected squared gradient norm of at most ε^2 and τ bounds the feedback delay. We next study finite sums with n components and obtain O(n+LΔ_f(n+\{τ,n-1\})ε^{-2}) evaluations. An asynchronous snapshot variant continues updating during full-gradient computations under an explicit bound on their completion time. For the stochastic method, we further replace a maximum-delay bound by a bound on the weighted amount of missing feedback.

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arXiv AI Papers

BitMTP: When Multi-Token Prediction Meets Low-Bit Large Language Models

For efficient deployment of large language models (LLMs), methods of ultra-low-bit backbones reduce weight storage, memory traffic, and linear-layer execution cost, while multi-token prediction (MTP) methods reduce sequential decoding steps by predicting multiple future tokens in parallel. Although complementary, the direct combination of these methods cannot accelerate decoding at comparable quality: masked drafting lacks intermediate token input supplied in next-token training, while wider computation and causal key-value (KV) updates can offset the savings from fewer steps. To address these challenges, we propose BitMTP, an algorithm-system co-design framework for efficient MTP on ultra-low-bit LLM backbones. A joint next-token prediction and MTP objective equips a single model with both autoregressive (AR) generation and block-causal drafting. Confidence-only decoding, speculative-only decoding, and hybrid decoding provide different quality-throughput operating points without using separate draft and verifier models. Accepted-prefix alignment keeps the committed prefix, materialized causal KV boundary, and CUDA Graph replay state consistent for continued generation. BitMTP uses this contract to select width-specialized low-bit execution and reuse captured graphs over shared KV storage. On NVIDIA H20, BitMTP with hybrid decoding achieves five-task mean speedups of 2.2x on BitNet b1.58-2B and 2.1-2.4x on 1.7B-4B Bonsai models at comparable task quality. On RTX 3090 and Jetson Orin, it further achieves up to 2.0x in five-task mean throughput and 3.3x on MBPP+, respectively. These results demonstrate that BitMTP accelerates ultra-low-bit LLM generation across backbones, model sizes, and GPU types. The source code is released at https://github.com/PolyU-VCLab/BitMTP

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AWS Machine Learning Blog

Securing AI agent identity with X.509 PKI on AWS

Learn how to secure multi-agent AI systems with cryptographic identity using Keyfactor EJBCA and AWS services. This reference architecture combines signed request envelopes, user-signed delegation assertions, RFC 8693 audience-scoped tokens, and real-time OCSP revocation to prove agent identity and prevent request forgery across agent-to-agent and MCP tool calls.

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arXiv AI Papers

APRIL: Ambiguity-Aware Expert Routing for Respiratory Sound Domain-Incremental Learning

Automated respiratory sound classification enables continuous, non-invasive respiratory assessment, yet long-term deployment remains challenging due to domain shifts from evolving recording devices and acquisition periods. When privacy and governance regulations prohibit replaying historical data, sequential learning easily overwrites previously acquired knowledge. Preserving dedicated domain experts prevents parameter interference, but selecting the correct expert at inference is difficult under overlapping acoustic distributions and absent domain labels. To resolve this dilemma, we propose APRIL, an exemplar-free domain-incremental framework for RSC. Built on a shared frozen BEATs backbone, APRIL sequentially inherits and isolates low-rank experts to enable new-domain adaptation without altering earlier models. A multi-level prototype router retrieves the top-two candidate experts and dynamically selects the final model by integrating domain-routing posteriors with classification confidence, adaptively weighted by matching ambiguity. We establish standardized device- and temporal-incremental benchmarks on the ICBHI and SPRSound datasets across forward and reversed domain orders. Evaluated over five random seeds, APRIL consistently achieves the highest final-session average Score among compared continual learning approaches, reaching 64.4% and 65.4% on ICBHI, and 83.1% and 82.2% on SPRSound under forward and reversed sequences, respectively. Crucially, average forgetting remains under 1.0% across all protocols, demonstrating robust domain adaptation and long-term knowledge retention without data replay. Overall, APRIL offers a reliable and privacy-preserving paradigm for deploying continuous respiratory sound classification across real-world healthcare settings.

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arXiv AI Papers

From Comparison to Selection: Enhancing Cross-Scale Generalization of Pointer Networks Trained with Reinforcement Learning for Capacitated Drone Delivery Routing

Unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) enable fast, flexible last-mile and emergency delivery, but their routing remains challenging as the number of clients varies. Classical approaches based on mixed-integer programming and heuristics can scale poorly or require problem-specific design, motivating learning-based alternatives. Reinforcement learning is particularly promising, provided a single policy can generalize across problem sizes without retraining. Although attention-based Pointer Networks are inherently size-agnostic, their solution quality degrades under both upscaling and downscaling. Using the Capacitated Vehicle Routing Problem (CVRP) as a controlled proxy, with fixed capacity reflecting drone payload constraints, we investigate this degradation and identify three contributing factors: shifts in node density, attention dispersion, and dilution of the mean-pooled graph context. We systematically compare architecture-wide, encoder-side, and decoder-side modifications to address these limitations and propose a learned, permutation-invariant graph-context aggregation mechanism, implemented as a weighted average and as Set2Set. Results reveal distinct requirements for transfer in each direction: entropy-based attention scaling reduces the CVRP20-to-CVRP100 performance gap by 1.41 percentage points, while the proposed aggregation methods achieve the largest improvement on the more challenging CVRP100-to-CVRP20 transfer, approximately 0.9 percentage points. Exploiting this complementarity, we introduce an approach selector that chooses the best model for each training-target size pair. The selector reduces cost relative to the reference model across all nine seen train-test pairs and eight of nine pairs involving unseen sizes (CVRP35, CVRP75, and CVRP200), achieving improvements of up to 3.2 percent.

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arXiv AI Papers

ACE-Compression: An Ability-Centric Evaluation of Compressed Large Language Models

Model compression makes large language models deployable, but today's evaluation tells an incomplete story. Standard practice measures retained task performance and stops there. This misses a critical fact: compression perturbs the distributed knowledge embedded across billions of weights, and task scores alone cannot reveal which underlying abilities survive and which quietly collapse. To solve this question, we introduce ACE-Compression, an ability-centric evaluation framework. Instead of asking only "does the compressed model still answer correctly?", we ask "which of its core abilities remain intact?" Our framework probes four deployment-facing dimensions: procedural reasoning and constraint execution, knowledge grounding and truthfulness, social cognition and affective understanding, and persona fidelity and stylistic consistency. Across more than 35 compressed checkpoints from six open-weight LLMs-covering quantization and pruning-we find that compression redistributes ability profiles. Coarse, local, and surface-level signals often persist, while fine-grained, long-tail, and context-dependent abilities become fragile. Quantization consistently outperforms pruning in retention, but the practical meaning of that gap depends entirely on which ability an application requires. Based on our findings, deployers can choose compression methods by the ability profile their application needs, not just by a leaderboard average. And algorithm designers gain diagnostic signals to build compression methods that preserve what matters. We believe that ACE-Compression turns compression from a black-box accuracy drop into an interpretable intervention-one we can measure, understand, and ultimately improve.

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arXiv AI Papers

MMEnterprise-Bench: Evaluating Enterprise Agents over Evolving Multimodal Records

Enterprise agents answer questions over workplace records that evolve through team collaboration. As information is shared, corrected, and revised across documents, chats, and figures, multiple versions of the same information accumulate in the workspace. Reliable question answering therefore requires agents to reason over sufficient evidence, resolve cross-source and temporal conflicts, and recognize when the available evidence is insufficient to establish an answer. To systematically evaluate these capabilities, we introduce MMEnterprise-Bench, a benchmark comprising 1,613 questions grounded in evolving multimodal records from simulated collaboration projects, covering three categories: Evidence Reasoning, Conflict Resolution, and Unanswerability. We evaluate 10 proprietary and open-source multimodal LLMs and find that even the strongest models struggle when evidence contains cross-source or temporal conflicts or spans multiple images. Moreover, increasing the retrieval budget or employing a larger retriever improves evidence recall but does not consistently translate into higher answer accuracy. These findings highlight the persistent challenges of reasoning over evolving workplace records and establish MMEnterprise-Bench as a testbed for developing more reliable enterprise agents. Code and data are available at https://mlvlab.github.io/MMEnterprise-Bench/.

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arXiv AI Papers

Elicitation or Expansion? Demystifying Gains from Agent Harness Optimization

Recent studies in harness optimization have shown substantial performance gains in language model agents without updating model weights. A well-designed harness more effectively leverages the underlying model's capabilities by shaping context, tool use, and execution workflows. However, naïve success rates alone do not fully characterize whether optimized harness yields more reliable success on tasks already within reach (elicitation) or a broader range of solvable tasks (expansion). This distinction is crucial for recursive self-improvement and evolutionary search, as expansion may provide a broader range of successful experiences to push the capability boundaries. Despite the growing significance, this distinction remains underexplored in harness optimization. We conduct a systematic analysis to study the effect of gains from harness optimization. Building on pass@k analyses in the reinforcement learning (RL) literature that compare models before and after RL training, we compare optimized harnesses with their pre-optimization counterparts. Specifically, we assess changes in reachable task coverage, compare harness optimization with model scaling and increased inference-time compute, and examine how gains vary with task difficulty. Across static prediction and dynamic tasks, we find that pass@1 advantages of harness over stronger interventions can reverse at larger attempt budgets and aggregate gains conceal shortfalls on hard tasks, underscoring the need for a fine-grained diagnosis.

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