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Microsoft Research

Forecasting space weather risks on power grids

Extreme space-weather events can damage power systems on Earth and degrade GPS accuracy and satellite operations. A new machine learning system can predict where damage is likely to occur 30-60 minutes before a storm arrives. The post Forecasting space weather risks on power grids appeared first on Microsoft Research .

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arXiv AI Papers

Beyond the Remembered World: Predictive 4D Belief for Persistent Navigation in Evolving Worlds

Persistent spatial memory enables embodied agents to navigate familiar environments across repeated visits. However, targets may move while unobserved, including during navigation, making remembered locations unreliable by the time an agent arrives. Despite advances in memory retrieval and state prediction, accounting for continued hidden world evolution and revising beliefs under limited visibility remain challenging. We study Evolving-World Navigation, where agents infer target locations from intermittent observations, predict their states at inspection time, and revise beliefs using visual evidence. We propose EvolvingNav, which constructs a time-indexed belief from timestamped 3D object histories through a structured persistence-relocation model. The belief distinguishes persistence at the last observed location from relocation to alternative locations and retains probability mass outside the known candidate set. An event-driven filter propagates the current belief as time elapses, forecasts target occupancy at candidate inspection times, and incorporates new RGB-D evidence. Negative observations downweight location hypotheses according to calibrated, visibility-conditioned detection probabilities, while evidence tracking prevents repeated use of the same observations. A frozen, zero-shot vision-language controller uses the updated belief to choose actions and replan. We further introduce EvoWorld-Bench, a benchmark grounded in human activity traces, comprising 54 scenes and 803,680 tasks with controlled changes before and during navigation. In simulation and real-robot experiments, EvolvingNav improves navigation success and search efficiency over the evaluated baselines. Paired experiments show the clearest gains under learnable temporal patterns, while ablations demonstrate the value of preserving uncertainty and incorporating visibility-aware evidence.

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arXiv AI Papers

DAGent: Evaluate-then-Grow Planning for Deep Research Agents

Deep research tasks require agents to navigate large knowledge spaces, synthesize evidence across many sources, and adapt their plans as findings emerge. Directed acyclic graph (DAG)-based multi-agent systems suit this setting because they support parallel execution and isolate each sub-task within a focused dependency context. Yet existing DAG-based agents instantiate a task-level plan before execution and repair the graph only after failures or missing evidence are observed. This Plan-then-Patch strategy is brittle for deep research: the system commits most strongly when its evidence is weakest, and later revisions waste computation on branches that should not have been planned. We propose DAGent, a DAG-based multi-agent framework with Evaluate-then-Grow incremental planning: an Orchestrator grows the task graph one batch at a time, conditioning each expansion on confidence and uncertainty signals from completed nodes. A hierarchical context layer propagates compact QueryDocs by default while preserving full execution traces for on-demand recall. The recorded DAG topology admits structural RL signals that outcome-only recipes cannot define; DAGRPO, a GRPO adaptation, injects topology-conditioned credit on Executor rollouts and a structural compliance regularization on Orchestrator plans. Across BrowseComp-Plus, GAIA, and xbench-DeepSearch, DAGent surpasses the strongest open-source baseline by 5.3 / 5.8 / 2.0 points at the Qwen3-235B-A22B scale, and the lead replicates across four open-source backbones and extends to GPT-5 at 327K context. At the Qwen3-8B scale, DAGRPO improves over a same-budget outcome-only GRPO baseline by 3.0 average Pass@1 points. A same-architecture comparison shows that evidence-conditioned planning reaches higher accuracy at lower per-task token, tool-call, and step footprints than its Plan-then-Patch counterpart. Code: https://github.com/hanwenliu6825/DAGent

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arXiv AI Papers

Rep2Skill: Representation-Guided Skill Self-Evolution for LLM Agents

Textual skills enable large language model (LLM) based agents to accumulate reusable procedural knowledge without updating model parameters. Yet existing skill evolution remains largely confined to the text space: an optimizer must diagnose success and failure patterns, and revise skills solely from long execution trajectories and sparse task outcomes. This text-only paradigm leaves the agent's internal representations, which contain rich records of its evolving execution state, outside the skill optimization loop. We ask whether an agent can improve its external textual skills by reflecting on its own internal representations. We introduce Rep2Skill, a representation-guided framework for self-evolution on agent skills. Specifically, upon the collected agent rollouts, Rep2Skill models their internal model representation trajectories to localize turns that deviate from successful execution dynamics, and it further interprets these signals alongside the execution contexts as actionable textual feedback for targeted skill revision. Experiments on two agent environments with two open-source LLMs show that Rep2Skill consistently outperforms text-only approaches in the self-evolution setting, where the same LLM serves as both executor and optimizer without a stronger external model. This establishes a promising direction moving agent self-improvement beyond text-only reflection.

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arXiv AI Papers

Do Self-Evolving Skills Generalize to Held-Out Tasks?

AI agents can externalize what they learn from past tasks into reusable skills, such as procedures, checklists, code, or other executable artifacts, that can be retrieved and reused when solving new tasks. Self-evolving skill methods keep rewriting these skills after each round of practice on training tasks, and the skill is then used on new tasks of the same kind. We ask a question: does the improvement a skill shows on its training tasks carry over to new test tasks? We test five self-evolving methods and a one-shot skill on six benchmarks, with the same model, the same agent, and the same train/test split for every method. Of the 21 skills that improve on their training tasks, 5 keep all of that improvement on the test tasks, 13 keep part of it, and 3 keep none of it. No existing method is best everywhere. When we read the skills, the ones that carry over badly often fix details that should depend on the task, such as column names and output files, or turn a fix for one failure into a rule for every task. An LLM judge that reads the skill content can often see this: it ranks finished skills the same way the test results do in 86\% of pairs. But it predicts the effect of a single edit poorly, so edits still have to be tested by running them. Based on these findings, we describe Generalizable Skill Optimization (GSO), which keeps only a guide for writing skills and writes a new skill for each task; it scores highest on all six benchmarks.

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arXiv AI Papers

MADBench: Benchmarking the Security of Multi-Agent Debate

Multi-agent debate (MAD) can improve large language model (LLM) reasoning by allowing multiple agents to exchange and critique their answers to the same task. However, the interactions that enable agents to correct mistakes can also spread adversarial errors and steer the agents toward an incorrect answer. Although some efforts have been made to examine particular attack types on MAD, systematic evaluation of MAD under diverse attacks remains limited. A central question is whether debate mitigates adversarial influence or amplifies it. In this paper, we present MADBench, a benchmark for evaluating the security of MAD. We organize attacks into a layered taxonomy following the MAD workflow, incorporating both established attacks and new strategies tailored to debate. We evaluate six attack families over 356 source tasks and 3,958 test cases, examining their effects on the final answer and the propagation of adversarial influence. Our results show that, under attacks, MAD does not necessarily improve LLM reasoning. Compared with a single-agent baseline, MAD can mitigate attacks on answer accuracy in question-answering tasks while amplifying unauthorized reads or writes in both question-answering and workspace tasks. Moreover, even when three out of five agents collude, the attack changes the final answer from correct to wrong on only 28.30\% of tasks answered correctly without attack, while only 3.26\% of initially correct honest agents switch to wrong answers during debate.

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arXiv AI Papers

RefCon: Iterative Refinement and Contrastive Memory Extraction for Context-Evolving Agent

Long-horizon agent interactions generate useful but noisy experience, and retraining models to absorb it is expensive. Context-evolving agents therefore need memory extraction methods that improve with more test-time compute without relying on gold labels. We propose RefCon, which combines sequential self-refinement with parallel self-contrast to extract higher-quality memories without gold labels. Evaluated on AppWorld and BFCL-V3 across multiple context-evolving agent frameworks, RefCon delivers strong and consistent gains, including relative improvements of 21.6% on ACE and 16.6% on ReMe over no-scaling baselines, while a diversity-focused variant (DivCon) achieves a 35.5% gain on ReasoningBank. RefCon consistently outperforms existing baselines without ground-truth labels, and generalizes across model scales and to software engineering tasks, where it surpasses even ground-truth baselines. We further analyze the accuracy-token trade-off and scaling behavior, showing RefCon maintains favorable efficiency and continues to improve as more trajectories are used, unlike diversity-only scaling which saturates earlier.

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arXiv AI Papers

Schema: Discovering Unknown Environments via Agentic Program Induction

Learning to complete tasks in unfamiliar environments with unknown rules remains a key challenge for LLM agents. Current LLM agents often record their discoveries in prose, which may not provide a compact, explicit account of how the environment works. Inspired by how scientists organize observations into testable, predictive theories, we introduce Schema, an agent harness that organizes learning and action through interactive program induction. The LLM agent decides what to investigate and how to act, expressing its evolving understanding of the environment as executable programs. The harness consists of a persistent program workspace and a small set of interfaces for checking these programs against the interaction history, planning within them, and executing plans under step-by-step verification. Schema raises ARC-AGI-3 RHAE from 58.7% to 99.2% with the same base model, solves 100% of the public DiG-bench games, and reaches the median performance of the top-50 human players on MazeBench. Extensive analysis shows the effectiveness of Schema in unknown mechanism discovery, and ablations confirm the contribution of each component.

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arXiv AI Papers

Characterizing High Bandwidth Flash for LLM Serving

Large language model (LLM) serving requires substantial memory to store model weights and KV caches. As models grow larger and contexts become longer, memory capacity and bandwidth increasingly become bottlenecks for serving performance. Agentic workloads compound this pressure through repeated interactions over growing contexts, making it increasingly important to retain KV state for reuse. High-bandwidth flash (HBF) offers a way to expand accelerator memory capacity for large language model (LLM) serving, but its access costs and limited write endurance complicate its use. We evaluate HBF for high-throughput agentic serving across system design and scheduling choices to understand when additional capacity improves serving performance and energy efficiency. We introduce an HBM-HBF-host hierarchical storage system and buffered cache-aware scheduling, and use trace-driven simulations to analyze their effects on performance, energy consumption, and HBF write lifetime. Across the evaluated workloads, the fastest HBF-augmented systems reduce completion time by 36.1-87.0% relative to HBM-only systems. Modeled energy savings reach 55.8%, although HBF increases energy consumption on some light workloads. Buffered cache-aware scheduling extends estimated HBF write lifetime from 4.77 to 14.82 years in the evaluated configuration. These results demonstrate the importance of coordinating data placement and scheduling to improve serving efficiency while sustaining a practical HBF write lifetime.

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arXiv AI Papers

MASCRDM: Multi-Agent System for Compliance Risk Detection and Mitigation in Training Process of Large Language Models

Large Language Models (LLMs) have been applied in various fields. However, ensuring compliance and safety of LLMs, such as avoiding discrimination and bias, still remains a challenge. Current efforts mainly focus on detecting and filtering inputs and outputs of the trained models, rather than studying the intrinsic architecture of the models in real-time. To tackle this challenge, we analyze the LLMs training process and discover two critical issues: 1) Most of the existing methods are predominantly static in their approach to detection and filtering, achieving only localized optimizations without systematically enhancing the compliance of LLMs. 2) Another issue with existing approaches is the lack of real-time risk detection and mitigation across the full training process, which leads to limited flexibility. Motivated by these, we propose MASCRDM (Multi-Agent System for Compliance Risk Detection and Mitigation) during the LLM training process. Firstly, we develop a set of compliance rules based on existing Artificial Intelligence (AI) laws and a compliance-specific LLM with the instruction of compliance law experts. Then, we deconstruct LLMs into several components and identify key nodes based on the compliance knowledge graph. During LLMs training, we implement our multiple agents in the whole process, giving compliance risk alerts and suggestions for LLM developers. Experiments on discrimination and bias benchmark demonstrate that our multi-agent system can effectively improve the compliance while maintaining reasonable semantic performance. The results indicate that our method provides an executable path for mitigating compliance risk from within the LLMs systematically.

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