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Papers y preprints de los feeds de investigación que seguimos.

6415documentos

ValueDiff: Value-Geometric KV Cache Eviction for Sink-Suppressed LLMs

Modern LLMs with QK-normalization, gated attention, learned attention sinks, or logit softcapping exhibit weaker persistent attention sinks, on which existing KV cache eviction methods primarily rely. We observe that across these models, weaker sinks co-occur with greater value-vector dispersion relative to key-vector dispersion. Motivated by this value-side dispersion, we present ValueDiff, a value-geometric eviction that ranks tokens by the L2 deviation of their value vectors from the cache mean. The same score arises as the minimal-disturbance eviction under a max-entropy assumption about future attention. We evaluate under fixed cache budgets, with eviction at every block boundary during prefill and at every decoding step during generation. On RULER at a tight 2k token budget, ValueDiff retains 88--99\% of dense across seven sink-suppressed models (best on 6 out of 7). On LongBench at the 4k budget, ValueDiff averages 92\% retention across sink-suppressed models versus 83\% for the strongest prior baseline. On MATH-500, ValueDiff is the strongest non-dense method on every sink-suppressed model tested at the 25\% cache budget, outperforming prior methods by up to 20 points on gated-attention models. Across all three benchmarks, value geometry emerges as the more reliable query-invariant eviction signal for sink-suppressed models.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Optimal Multi-way Decision Trees for Stratified Sampling in Online Controlled Experiments

Online controlled experiments, or A/B tests, are widely used to estimate causal effects on digital platforms. A central challenge is to improve experimental sensitivity, or statistical power, without increasing the experimental sample size. Stratified sampling is a classical variance reduction technique; however, its effectiveness depends critically on how the strata are constructed. We thus propose an optimization-based stratification framework for stratified sampling using optimal multi-way decision trees. Our method, called Optimal Multi-way Stratification Trees (OMST), formulates stratification as a path-selection problem over a feature graph. The selected paths define interpretable stratification rules and are optimized using an exact variance-minimizing binary optimization formulation under continuous proportional allocation and a Neyman-type optimal allocation. We incorporate supervised optimal binning to generate outcome-relevant candidate splits for numerical features. Furthermore, we introduce reduction procedures for redundant candidate paths and assignment constraints, substantially reducing the optimization problem size. Experiments on both a real-world and a simulated dataset demonstrate that OMST achieves comparable or superior variance reduction to existing methods while maintaining shallow and interpretable stratification trees.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Semantic Candidate-Job Matching: A Comparative Evaluation of Dense Embedding Models in Hybrid Retrieval

This paper presents a comparative evaluation of dense embedding models for semantic candidate-job matching in high-volume staffing workflows. Incoming job descriptions are converted into structured English search text and language-specific keywords through LLM-based parsing, and candidate profiles are indexed as semantically enriched resume representations. We evaluate EmbeddingGemma (base) against EmbeddingGemma fine-tuned with Cached Multiple Negatives Ranking Loss (MNRL) within a unified hybrid retrieval pipeline that fuses vector similarity and full-text relevance via reciprocal rank fusion (RRF), and benchmark both against the MPNet model on a batch comparative evaluation dataset scored through the deployed job-candidate matching scoring pipeline. We further document, with mathematical detail, the broader set of contrastive fine-tuning objectives considered during model development (including AnglE/CoSENT-style refinement) and the empirical rationale for retaining Cached-MNRL-only adaptation as the preferred configuration. To support reproducible model selection, we define a broader evaluation framework comprising standard information retrieval metrics (Recall@K, mean reciprocal rank, nDCG) under the exact hybrid-retrieval protocol; the metrics used for the evaluation reported in this paper are fine-tuning convergence diagnostics and a batch comparative evaluation using the deployed AI-Match score and an independent LLM-as-a-Judge relevance score, and we state this scope explicitly rather than implying the full framework was measured. The paper addresses the gap between general-purpose embedding benchmarks and enterprise job-candidate matching constraints, providing a structured basis for comparing embedding strategies under realistic job-candidate retrieval conditions.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Expansion Counts under Standard A* Tie-Breaking Strategies on the Final Plateau

In the A* search algorithm, the tie-breaking strategies for nodes with the same f-value determines which states A* expands on the final f-layer. For nine standard tie-breaking strategies, we show that under a consistent heuristic, every pair has positive-cost instances favoring each strategy over the other by an arbitrarily large additive expansion gap. A parameterized unit-cost grid example also gives unbounded expansion-count ratios between low-h with FIFO and LIFO. In unit-cost search with h > 0 at non-goals, exact heuristic values near the goal lead to complementary extremal results: low-h minimizes the number of remaining expansions from a common configuration within the perfect region, while high-h maximizes the total number of expansions when every final-plateau state with h=1 is a goal predecessor. Finally, with the evaluation function f_α = g + αh, when h>0 at non-goals, every heuristic weight 0 α<1 eliminates tie-breaking sensitivity, and all tie-breaking strategies expand the same set of states.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Stochastic Flow Map for Count Data

High-dimensional count data are common in scientific applications, but most diffusion and flow models are designed for continuous or categorical data, and generation often requires many sequential model evaluations. We propose Count Flow Map, a generative model that learns finite-time transitions directly in count space for one- or few-step generation. Our model directly learns stochastic transitions over finite time intervals, using Poisson births and Binomial deaths to preserve nonnegative integer counts without a predefined maximum. These transition models are trained to match the underlying local birth--death dynamics and to maintain consistency across step sizes. We characterize the connection between local dynamics and finite-time transition consistency and derive a bound on the generation error. After validating Count Flow Map in several simulations, including a high-dimensional, high-count setting, we apply it to single-cell drug perturbation prediction and neural population forecasting, where it captures perturbation responses and supports forecasts of high-activity events with only one or a few model evaluations. Together, these experiments demonstrate that Count Flow Map enables high-quality generation directly in count space across inference budgets, from one-step to few-step generation, using a single trained model.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Latent Telepathy: Multi-Robot Communication with Self-Supervised Perceptual Latents

In a decentralized multi-robot team under partial observability, the fact that decides a robot's next action is often visible only to a teammate. Existing decentralized methods communicate kinematic information, such as position or planned trajectory, which cannot convey what the teammate perceives. Learned communication in multi-agent reinforcement learning (MARL) can carry perceptual content, but the resulting messages are task-coupled and opaque. We propose Latent Telepathy. Each robot broadcasts the perceptual latent vector it already computes for its own use, the output of an encoder trained with a self-supervised joint-embedding predictive objective, frozen, and shared across the team. A teammate learns to act on it from task reward alone. Because the encoder already runs for perception, the message costs no additional computation and a single compact vector of bandwidth. Because the encoder is frozen before any policy is trained, the message means the same thing to every robot, and the receiving robot is never told what it means. We evaluate Latent Telepathy with a content-controlled protocol in which bandwidth, latency, topology and receiver are held fixed and only the message content varies. Broadcasting the latent lets a navigator avoid an occluded hazard in 99.7% of episodes, matching a noiseless hand-designed message. Position and trajectory messages remain at chance, and the raw camera image, 186 times wider, is less reliable than the compressed latent. The result holds from a discrete gridworld to rendered pixels under continuous velocity control, and the encoder decodes the hazard from a physical robot's camera in 102 of 102 live decisions. We also identify a requirement for porting MARL communication results to continuous control, that the decision a message informs must remain reachable by exploration, and show how to restore it.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Knowing When to Trust Images: Reliability-Aware Multi-modal Entity Alignment

The visual modality, i.e., images, plays a key role in multi-modal entity alignment (MMEA). Existing approaches often directly fuse the image with other modalities to align different entities. Although simple, such strategies overlook the potential noise in the images and their semantic misalignment with corresponding entities, resulting in suboptimal fusion and degraded performance. Addressing this, we propose a novel Reliability-Aware framework for MMEA (RA-MMEA), which assesses visual reliability and adaptively improves unreliable visual representations for robust entity alignment. The core lies in two modules, including dependency-aware visual reliability prediction (DA-VRP) and stability-regularized visual embedding generation (SR-VEG). The former aims to estimate the reliability of an image by leveraging multi-modal dependency within the entity, while the latter focuses on producing alternative visual representation conditioned on semantics encoded in textual modalities for multi-modal fusion. Compared to current methods, RA-MMEA enables more reliable visual representations for modality fusion, thereby improving performance. In extensive experiments, RA-MMEA achieves state-of-the-art results, verifying the importance of reliable visual modality for entity alignment and the effectiveness of RA-MMEA. The code and results will be released.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Optimal No-Regret Learning for Repeated Prophet Inequality

We study repeated prophet inequalities under prefix feedback. In each of T rounds, a learner encounters fresh values drawn independently from n boxes with unknown [0,1]-supported distributions in a fixed order and must irrevocably accept one, observing only the prefix up to its stopping box. Regret is measured against the optimal stopping policy that knows the distributions. We give an efficient algorithm achieving O({T}) expected regret, matching the lower bound up to logarithmic factors. Our algorithm explores directly through near-optimal policies, combining empirical backward induction with box-specific reach bonuses. A relative-drop aggregation rule then exploits the nesting structure of observed prefixes to preserve exploration, thereby removing the polynomial dependence on the box number n. This resolves an open question posed by Liu et al. (2025).

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Judging a Review by its Cover: A Reliability Analysis of LLM-based Peer Review Evaluation Metrics

Peer-review evaluation is increasingly being automated with LLM-as-a-judge metrics, but this creates a measurement risk. A review may receive a high score because it is fluent, organized, and polished, rather than because it provides a strong evaluation of the paper. This risk is especially important in AI-assisted reviewing, where reviewers may use LLMs to improve clarity or presentation while preserving the underlying judgments. We propose a statistical framework for testing whether peer-review evaluation metrics capture substantive review quality beyond surface-level linguistic form. The framework compares original human reviews with faithful LLM rewrites that preserve the same evaluative content while changing wording and presentation. Using a dataset comprising 4,044 meaning-preserving rewrites derived from 674 human reviews from ICLR and NeurIPS, we evaluate 29 content-oriented peer-review evaluation metrics drawn from four prior works through complementary tests of surface sensitivity and robustness. Although these metrics are intended to capture review properties beyond surface-level, writing-dependent characteristics, we find that sensitivity to rewriting is widespread. Under our primary analysis, 23 metrics assign significantly different scores to reviews whose evaluative content is preserved, while only six satisfy our robustness criterion. The patterns are largely consistent across two LLM judge models, suggesting that the issue is not specific to a single judge. These findings show that many peer-review evaluation metrics partially conflate review quality with linguistic presentation, and indicate that robustness to meaning-preserving rewriting should be validated before such metrics are used to compare human-written, AI-assisted, and AI-generated reviews.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Why Ghost Outputs Teach: A Kernel-Based Understanding of Subliminal Learning

Subliminal Learning (SL) is a recently identified phenomenon in which a student model acquires downstream task capabilities by matching seemingly unrelated auxiliary outputs from a teacher, despite never observing task labels, task-specific outputs, or the original training data. While recent studies have identified where subliminal signals may reside, the optimization mechanism underlying this phenomenon remains poorly understood. In this work, we provide a mechanistic understanding of SL through the lens of learning dynamics. Specifically, we derive a chained cross-task kernel that explicitly links ghost-output supervision to changes in task predictions through shared backbone representations. Our unified analytical framework provides a rigorous mathematical explanation for three central empirical puzzles in SL: (i) under shared initialization, the transfer operator forms a strictly Positive Semi-Definite (PSD) structure, guaranteeing that ghost-output optimization aligns the student with the teacher's true task objective without explicit label exposure; (ii) the ghost-output dimensionality acts as an explicit rank bottleneck governing the transfer of task-relevant features; and (iii) synthetic, high-entropy inputs function as broadband probes that maximize cross-task kernel overlap, explaining why random noise consistently outperforms structured data for subliminal transfer. Experiments on the canonical ghost-output setting validate all three theoretical predictions, providing the first learning-dynamics-based theoretical explanation of how ghost-output supervision gives rise to subliminal learning.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

CTRL: Control-Based Time Series Forecasting with LLM-Guided Residual Learning

Time series forecasting underpins critical decision-making across diverse domains. While large language models (LLMs) offer promising reasoning capabilities, existing LLM-based time series forecasting approaches either reduce them to numerical predictors that bypass their strengths, or allow direct forecast generation that destabilizes predictions in non-stationary settings. We introduce CTRL, a framework that decouples semantic reasoning from quantitative prediction. A frozen backbone generates base forecasts, while specialized LLM agents function as controllers that analyze backbone prediction errors through decomposed trend, seasonal, and irregular components, grounding reasoning in interpretable temporal structure. Each agent outputs compact control signals that a lightweight residual decoder translates into forecast corrections. CTRL incorporates label-free test-time adaptation that detects distribution shift from input statistics alone and readapts control signals with only 3-24 LLM calls via caching. CTRL is explicitly designed to improve robustness under non-stationary temporal dynamics and distribution shift, while remaining competitive on highly stationary time series where adaptive correction provides limited additional benefit.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

The Price of Self-Calibration: Exact Evidence Budgets and Manufactured Blind Sets in Adaptive Monitoring

Self-calibrating monitors adapt their threshold online to guarantee a prescribed long-run false-alarm rate under arbitrary drift. We compute the price of that guarantee, stating every law with its exact domain of validity. First, the guarantee is an accounting identity, insensitive to what the monitor is meant to detect. Two evidence identities make the cost exact for the online quantile tracker: a persistent step of height δ yields excess alarm mass within one alarm of δ/η, and exactly δ/η pathwise when δ is a lattice multiple of the gain η; a ramp of slope c yields a stationary excess rate of exactly c/η, independent of accumulated size, up to a boundary c=η(1-α) coinciding with the alarm-rate cap. Second, the certificate's own fluctuation obeys an exact law: the windowed alarm rate has standard deviation of order 1/L, not the binomial 1/{L}, since the windowed mass telescopes to a difference of a tight internal state; the closed-form constant is validated with no fitted parameter. Detectors calibrated on the binomial scale are miscalibrated by {η(q_0)L}, and correct calibration turns detection windows from quadratic to linear in the inverse fault speed. Third, any monitor required to tolerate a drift class {D} is blind, at any horizon and for any rule, to every fault in {D}-{D}; the proof is a deliberately elementary two-point argument and the contribution is the object it identifies: for speed-bounded classes the blind set is exactly the doubled-speed class, and the tracker absorbs a speed class fixed by its own gain, so that under a certification regime declaring absorbed drift normal, the monitor manufactures {D}. An exact Gaussian projection bound, sharper than Pinsker and never vacuous, quantifies power outside it.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Robot World Models Are Not Invariant to How the Actions Are Written

A robot policy is trained with one of two action parameterizations: absolute joint targets, or deltas relative to the current state. The choice is a live engineering decision in robot learning, and a world model conditioned on actions inherits it silently. We show the inheritance is catastrophic. A latent dynamics model trained on one parameterization and handed the identical commanded trajectory written in the other collapses: retrieval degrades by 2.6-13.4x across three robot datasets and two morphologies, goal-conditioned action selection falls from 53% to 15%, and on PushT the two beliefs about the same future are near-orthogonal (cos = 0.067, worst case -0.377), so the predictor does not degrade gracefully, it answers a different question. This is not a distribution-shift artifact in the usual sense: the two encodings are mutually reconstructible at R^2 = 0.996 given the joint input, so no information is lost, and we give the test that separates a valid re-parameterization from a lossy summary or a sensor swap. The test rejected three of the four axes we proposed. The defect lives in the action channel, which the invariance literature for visual models does not examine: work there concerns crops, jitter and camera pose, while the parameterization of the commands goes unaudited. The repair is averaging over the two encodings, and where it goes matters. Averaging the objective restores task performance by itself; averaging the outputs, safe for probabilities by concavity, is not available for direction-valued prediction, where the normalized mean can score below every member of the orbit. What objective-averaging leaves behind is the tail: worst-case agreement stays at 0.78, a disagreement penalty closes it to 0.995, and over a latent rollout it is the difference between a worst case that erodes and one that holds. On PushT, averaging alone does not repair the axis.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Proximal Residual Value Functions for Consistent Planning and Real-Time Execution

We study two-timescale decision systems in which a planning layer periodically supplies a continuation-value function to a real-time optimizer that allocates arriving resources, with inventory placement as our motivating application. We propose an end-to-end reinforcement learning (RL) method for learning this function using proximal residual value functions, which combine a strictly convex potential of post-decision inventory with a learned convex residual. This general form yields a well-posed optimization layer that supports end-to-end differentiation while preserving an explicit convex objective for real-time execution. We characterize the necessary and sufficient conditions under which a smooth value function yields decisions that are consistent across the planning and execution timescales. In an offline simulation using historical inventory arrival and demand patterns from a large e-commerce retailer, learned proximal residual value functions reduce total routing and transfer cost relative to a historical-production-system proxy by 5.0%.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

SoK: Formal Methods for Fact-Checking and Information Integrity

An automated fact-checking system returns a label: the claim is true, or it is false. In many such systems the verdict remains the primary output. What is generally missing is a record of which document settled the question, of what would have had to be different for the verdict to change, or of whether the same claim, reworded, would have been judged the same way. We call the missing piece a warrant: a separate statement of what was guaranteed and on what grounds. Formal methods produce evidence of this kind, and regulation is beginning to ask for it, since the Digital Services Act and the AI Act both call for auditable evidence about how systems behave. Surveys of automated fact-checking are usually organised by pipeline stage, and treat logic as one technique among many. We organise the field by what is being formalised instead, which gives five levels: the claim, the reasoning, the system doing the checking, the ecosystem the claim spreads through, and the regulatory obligation. Sorting 121 works into those levels, two patterns stand out. Most of the relevant formal machinery already exists, but it was built for other domains and has rarely been applied here, and the gap is widest for verifying the checking system itself. Several stages of the routine professional fact-checkers follow also have no stated correctness criterion, and two of them, writing a claim in checkable form and correcting a verdict already published, are not formally specified in any work we coded. We close with open problems, each with a suggested first step.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Auditing Bayesian Graph Alignment: Diagnostic Comparisons and Reference Failure

Bayesian graph alignment estimates correspondence probabilities, but convergence of an alignment-score trace need not imply accurate correspondence marginals. We audit this gap on 240 new exact graph pairs from four source families, 240 larger pairs with 20-100 vertices, and a separate 60-case exact implementation check. Under an explicit edge-flip likelihood, we compare three samplers and score, marginal, indicator, categorical, and classifier-based diagnostics. Marginal disagreement improves error discrimination over score R-hat for the exact informed sampler, but its improvement for vanilla local sampling is uncertain. Assignment-based R* and short indicator panels are competitive; no diagnostic dominates across samplers and endpoints. At larger sizes, diagnostics predict subsequent marginal changes, not posterior error, and classification performance depends on the drift threshold. Disjoint-window and held-out-chain checks attenuate but preserve positive associations. Only 22 of 240 original reference sets pass an agreement screen. On forty failure-selected cases, eightfold SMC particle escalation does not resolve disagreement, whereas additional rejuvenation helps. Longer informed runs remain unstable. An elementary feasible-alignment bound demonstrates severely unrepresentative SMC and informed-chain scores in concentrated 100-vertex cases, independently of approximate reference consensus. We also exhibit common-start chains with near-zero disagreement despite exact marginal error near .967. These results support assignment-sensitive auditing while identifying limits of finite budgets, diagnostic rankings, and reference agreement as evidence of accuracy.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

ChemCLIR-Bench: Benchmarking Cross-Lingual Information Retrieval in Multilingual Chemical Patents

Cross-lingual information retrieval (CLIR) is increasingly important in multi-national industries, where critical technical evidence may exist in a different language than the query. However, existing benchmarks do not adequately capture domain-specific cross-lingual retrieval or the retrieval-depth and recoverability failures that aggregate recall hides. In this work, we benchmark CLIR in the chemical domain, with a focus on patent data. We construct a multilingual dataset from Google Patents and the European Patent Office (EPO) data, spanning five languages (covering major Eastern and Western languages) and reflecting the diversity and complexity of real-world industrial documentation. Using this dataset, we systematically evaluate eight state-of-the-art embedding models for cross-lingual retrieval. Our results show a substantial performance gap between monolingual and cross-lingual settings: for the best-performing model, Recall@10 drops from 0.72 to 0.53 in cross-lingual setting. Retrieval depth also degrades significantly, with relevant documents ranked lower across languages in cross-lingual scenarios. Furthermore, some multilingual embedding models that perform strongly in monolingual settings exhibit sharp declines when queries and documents are in different languages, providing practical insights for model selection in cross-lingual use cases. These findings highlight critical limitations of current approaches and emphasize the need for more robust cross-lingual retrieval methods in domain-specific settings. Our benchmark provides actionable insights for model selection and establishes a controlled diagnostic evaluation framework for CLIR over industrial technical text. Data and code are publicly available at https://github.com/MohammadKhodadad/Multi-Lingual-QAC.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Stealing profits: Spread-based temporal hierarchy forecasting for day-ahead electricity markets

Day-ahead electricity price forecasts support trading and storage decisions, but for battery arbitrage predicting intraday price spreads is more relevant than predicting individual hourly prices. Here we show that a temporal hierarchy forecasting (THieF) framework that jointly reconciles forecasts of hourly electricity prices and all intraday price spreads consistently improves performance across two major European electricity markets and three different forecasting architectures. Using five years of out-of-sample data from Germany and Spain, we obtain accuracy improvements of up to 19.7% and profit gains of up to 10.4% relative to unreconciled hourly price forecasts. The gains persist even for a highly accurate pretrained TabPFN foundation model. Our results demonstrate that exploiting coherent relationships between economically relevant forecasting targets can improve both predictive accuracy and decision value, and that better statistical forecasts do not necessarily imply better economic decisions.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Causal Inference with Unobserved Confounding: A Mixture Learning Perspective

Unobserved confounding is a fundamental challenge in causal inference from observational data. This article develops a mixture-learning perspective, viewing latent confounders as sources of heterogeneity that induce mixture structure in observed data. Under suitable structural and identifiability assumptions, recovering the mixing distribution and component mechanisms enables estimation of interventional distributions and causal estimands. Using variants of Bernoulli mixtures as a running example, we contextualize mixture-learning techniques and their structural assumptions, and connect them to causal inference in panel-data settings, including latent factor models and synthetic interventions.We then consider high-dimensional exponential-family mixtures with dependent outcome trajectories, moving beyond counterfactual means to model counterfactual distributions. We situate this perspective relative to complementary approaches for unobserved confounding. Together, these ideas provide a bridge between mixture learning and causal inference, connecting recent advances in high-dimensional mixture learning to scalable identification and estimation of causal effects while raising new challenges for mixture learning.

arXiv AI Papershace 2 meses

Triggers and Diagnostics for LLM-Based Interpretability Failures in Active Inference Agents

LLM explainers are increasingly attached to autonomous agents as runtime oversight, with operators reading a generated account of the agent's beliefs and actions rather than its internal state. We audit the account itself, pairing an Active Inference (AIF) agent that tracks German grid demand and adjusts generation with an LLM explainer on three backends (GPT-4o, Claude-3-Opus, Gemini), and probing the pair with three black-box triggers. Corrupting the observation stream by 600 MW per step moves the agent's posterior by 490 MW, roughly 0.9% of grid capacity. None of the 30 explanations produced during the injection flag anything under a stated rubric, and each narrates the corrupted belief fluently. On timesteps where the agent takes an objectively wrong action, all three explainers produce a sycophantic rationalization 80-95% of the time (n = 20 per backend). Attacker-controlled text in the observation metadata field steers the explainer, with susceptibility differing by provider and data exfiltration succeeding on all three. We propose mitigations for each failure but do not evaluate them. In every failure we observed, the explanation was fluent and wrong. Moreover, nothing in the explainer architecture checks whether an explanation is true before an operator acts on it. Testing the explainer therefore belongs in any audit of an agentic deployment.