Bayesian graph alignment estimates correspondence probabilities, but convergence of an alignment-score trace need not imply accurate correspondence marginals. We audit this gap on 240 new exact graph pairs from four source families, 240 larger pairs with 20-100 vertices, and a separate 60-case exact implementation check. Under an explicit edge-flip likelihood, we compare three samplers and score, marginal, indicator, categorical, and classifier-based diagnostics. Marginal disagreement improves error discrimination over score R-hat for the exact informed sampler, but its improvement for vanilla local sampling is uncertain. Assignment-based R* and short indicator panels are competitive; no diagnostic dominates across samplers and endpoints. At larger sizes, diagnostics predict subsequent marginal changes, not posterior error, and classification performance depends on the drift threshold. Disjoint-window and held-out-chain checks attenuate but preserve positive associations. Only 22 of 240 original reference sets pass an agreement screen. On forty failure-selected cases, eightfold SMC particle escalation does not resolve disagreement, whereas additional rejuvenation helps. Longer informed runs remain unstable. An elementary feasible-alignment bound demonstrates severely unrepresentative SMC and informed-chain scores in concentrated 100-vertex cases, independently of approximate reference consensus. We also exhibit common-start chains with near-zero disagreement despite exact marginal error near .967. These results support assignment-sensitive auditing while identifying limits of finite budgets, diagnostic rankings, and reference agreement as evidence of accuracy.
Cross-lingual information retrieval (CLIR) is increasingly important in multi-national industries, where critical technical evidence may exist in a different language than the query. However, existing benchmarks do not adequately capture domain-specific cross-lingual retrieval or the retrieval-depth and recoverability failures that aggregate recall hides. In this work, we benchmark CLIR in the chemical domain, with a focus on patent data. We construct a multilingual dataset from Google Patents and the European Patent Office (EPO) data, spanning five languages (covering major Eastern and Western languages) and reflecting the diversity and complexity of real-world industrial documentation. Using this dataset, we systematically evaluate eight state-of-the-art embedding models for cross-lingual retrieval. Our results show a substantial performance gap between monolingual and cross-lingual settings: for the best-performing model, Recall@10 drops from 0.72 to 0.53 in cross-lingual setting. Retrieval depth also degrades significantly, with relevant documents ranked lower across languages in cross-lingual scenarios. Furthermore, some multilingual embedding models that perform strongly in monolingual settings exhibit sharp declines when queries and documents are in different languages, providing practical insights for model selection in cross-lingual use cases. These findings highlight critical limitations of current approaches and emphasize the need for more robust cross-lingual retrieval methods in domain-specific settings. Our benchmark provides actionable insights for model selection and establishes a controlled diagnostic evaluation framework for CLIR over industrial technical text. Data and code are publicly available at https://github.com/MohammadKhodadad/Multi-Lingual-QAC.
Day-ahead electricity price forecasts support trading and storage decisions, but for battery arbitrage predicting intraday price spreads is more relevant than predicting individual hourly prices. Here we show that a temporal hierarchy forecasting (THieF) framework that jointly reconciles forecasts of hourly electricity prices and all intraday price spreads consistently improves performance across two major European electricity markets and three different forecasting architectures. Using five years of out-of-sample data from Germany and Spain, we obtain accuracy improvements of up to 19.7% and profit gains of up to 10.4% relative to unreconciled hourly price forecasts. The gains persist even for a highly accurate pretrained TabPFN foundation model. Our results demonstrate that exploiting coherent relationships between economically relevant forecasting targets can improve both predictive accuracy and decision value, and that better statistical forecasts do not necessarily imply better economic decisions.
Unobserved confounding is a fundamental challenge in causal inference from observational data. This article develops a mixture-learning perspective, viewing latent confounders as sources of heterogeneity that induce mixture structure in observed data. Under suitable structural and identifiability assumptions, recovering the mixing distribution and component mechanisms enables estimation of interventional distributions and causal estimands. Using variants of Bernoulli mixtures as a running example, we contextualize mixture-learning techniques and their structural assumptions, and connect them to causal inference in panel-data settings, including latent factor models and synthetic interventions.We then consider high-dimensional exponential-family mixtures with dependent outcome trajectories, moving beyond counterfactual means to model counterfactual distributions. We situate this perspective relative to complementary approaches for unobserved confounding. Together, these ideas provide a bridge between mixture learning and causal inference, connecting recent advances in high-dimensional mixture learning to scalable identification and estimation of causal effects while raising new challenges for mixture learning.
LLM explainers are increasingly attached to autonomous agents as runtime oversight, with operators reading a generated account of the agent's beliefs and actions rather than its internal state. We audit the account itself, pairing an Active Inference (AIF) agent that tracks German grid demand and adjusts generation with an LLM explainer on three backends (GPT-4o, Claude-3-Opus, Gemini), and probing the pair with three black-box triggers. Corrupting the observation stream by 600 MW per step moves the agent's posterior by 490 MW, roughly 0.9% of grid capacity. None of the 30 explanations produced during the injection flag anything under a stated rubric, and each narrates the corrupted belief fluently. On timesteps where the agent takes an objectively wrong action, all three explainers produce a sycophantic rationalization 80-95% of the time (n = 20 per backend). Attacker-controlled text in the observation metadata field steers the explainer, with susceptibility differing by provider and data exfiltration succeeding on all three. We propose mitigations for each failure but do not evaluate them. In every failure we observed, the explanation was fluent and wrong. Moreover, nothing in the explainer architecture checks whether an explanation is true before an operator acts on it. Testing the explainer therefore belongs in any audit of an agentic deployment.
The Deck-of-cards-based Ordinal Regression (DOR) infers a value function from a ranking of reference alternatives in which the Decision Maker (DM) inserts blank cards between consecutive levels to express preference intensity. DOR, and its stochastic extension (SMAA-DOR), treat these answers as hard constraints defining a set of compatible value functions. We propose B-DOR, a probabilistic reformulation of DOR in which each pair of adjacent levels yields an ordinal observation, the declared direction and the number of cards, modelled through a cumulative-link likelihood that relates the number of blank cards to the latent value difference between alternatives. Two Bayesian inference algorithms are proposed: BAYES-DOR samples the whole posterior distribution by Hamiltonian Monte Carlo; FTRL-DOR tracks the maximum a posteriori estimate by constrained convex optimization. Moreover, through a multi-step elicitation process, elicitation can be spread over several short sessions reducing the cognitive burden on the DM. Both algorithms enjoy logarithmic regret bounds for prediction that hold for any sequence of DM responses and that guide the choice of the prior hyperparameters. A Monte Carlo study over 768 configurations shows that accuracy grows with the number of sessions, that blank cards add significant information over preference directions alone, that both algorithms maintain good performance under inconsistent answers, and that both outperform DOR and SMAA-DOR. An illustrative application to Italian regional healthcare performance demonstrates the practical applicability of the approach for building composite indicators.
Meta's Muse is apparently an effective AI assistant, but one that's a little creepy. Part of that is because of its new Mac app, which…
Without buyouts, Flock would "almost certainly" need to lay off staff.
Green's function based operator approximation offers an efficient route for solving linear partial differential equations under varying boundary conditions and source terms. Once the Green's function is learned, solutions for new configurations are obtained through integration rather than by solving the differential equation again. Existing Green's function learning methods face two structural challenges. The first is the singular behavior of the Green's function near the source point, which places a difficult approximation burden on neural networks. The second is the absence of explicit consistency between the learned Green's function and its gradient, although both quantities enter the integral solution representation directly. This work proposes SDC-GON, a Singular Decomposition and Consistency-Regularized Green's Operator Network that addresses both challenges within a unified framework. The Green's function is decomposed into an analytically known singular component and a smooth correction learned by the network, so that the neural approximation targets only the regular part of the response kernel. A self-consistency loss enforces agreement between the gradient and the autodifferentiation gradient of the smooth correction. The method is evaluated on two dimensional Poisson, three dimensional heat conduction, heterogeneous reaction diffusion, and Stokes benchmarks, consistently outperforming the compared baselines across all cases. On the heterogeneous pipe benchmark, SDC-GON achieves a testing error of 3.7010^{-4} with a smaller network architecture, compared with 9.6010^{-4} for the same-width baseline and 4.6310^{-4} for a larger configuration, demonstrating that structural improvements are more effective than increasing model size.
Reasoning language models are trained to produce solutions, not to refuse them, and this bias persists when the problem they are handed is false. Asked to prove a corrupted theorem, a strong model will typically comply and produce a confident derivation of something untrue. We present Euston, an 8B mathematical claim-verification model trained to resist exactly this. Training data were generated with GraphSynth, a probabilistic factor-graph generator that couples attribute-level diversity to decode-time structural masking and span-synchronized verification, yielding 3{,}026 matched true/corrupted statement pairs (6,052 statements) drawn from arXiv papers spanning 2010--2025. We fine-tuned DeepSeek-R1-8B with GRPO under a rule-based, zero-API reward for 189 steps on four H100 GPUs. On a balanced 200-true/200-false held-out split, balanced accuracy rises from 29.50% to 63.75% and the discrimination gap---the difference between the rate of calling false statements false and the rate of calling true statements false moves from -0.5% (z=-0.1) to +27.5% (z=+6.0). Critically, the gain is not purchased with general mathematical ability: AIME 2026 accuracy under official semantics is 65.00% against a 69.17% base, a difference of -4.17% that is not statistically significant, whereas an earlier run of the same recipe on a smaller GraphSynth corpus collapsed to 40.00%. Median response length also falls from 19,217 to 18,296 tokens and the truncation rate from 25.8% to 8.3%, so the improvement does not come from thinking longer. We report the result together with the confounds that bound its interpretation, principally the all-false composition of the official evaluation sets and the low precision implied at realistic error prevalence.
