Change impact analysis (CIA) helps developers identify code entities impacted by their initial changes. While several approaches for CIA were proposed, they still struggle with either low precision or low recall, thereby increasing manual effort for developers to verify the results. Furthermore, limitations in the used datasets and experimental setups can bias the results reported by many CIA approaches. In this paper, we first address the dataset limitations by manually labeling 1,931 changed code entities stemming from 263 commits of 22 open-source Java projects. Next, we introduce two variants of katIA, our code change impact analysis approach that combines static impact analysis with the reasoning capabilities of large language models (LLMs). The first variant uses a single prompt (katIA-SP) for refining an initial static impact set while the second variant uses three specialized agents (katIA-MA). The evaluation with our curated dataset shows that katIA-SP with Gemini 2.5 Flash achieved an F1-score of 22.4% when matching impacted entities by their fully qualified names (FQN) and 27.0% when matching them by their class and entity names (CE). The latter shows an improvement of 2.0 percentage points over the state-of-the-art. This score is further improved by katIA-MA which, using Gemini 2.5 Flash, yields an FQN-matching F1-score of 29.1% and a CE-matching F1-score of 33.3%. While these improvements come at the cost of increased median generation time from 0.570 s to 11.214 s and median token usage from 1,235 to 6,462 tokens, the improved performance justifies the additional cost. The comparison of three LLMs using katIA-SP finds that Gemini 2.5 Flash is the most consistent model. These results indicate that combining static impact analysis with LLM-based refinement, particularly with the multi-agent variant, can improve code change impact analysis.
Options market makers absorb client order flow and must hedge the resulting inventory risk under trading frictions. We study whether an option hedging reinforcement learning (RL) agent trained on historical market data outperforms three alternatives in tail-risk protection: (i) traditional delta hedging, (ii) simple hedge-ratio rules, and (iii) the same agent trained in simulated markets. Most RL hedging agents are trained in model-generated markets that do not capture the crashes and volatility regimes present in real data. We introduce an empirical replay environment using S&P 500 option data from 1996 to 2017 and compare against a matched geometric Brownian motion (GBM) environment, a stochastic-volatility (SABR) simulator, and a hybrid that values historical paths with Black-Scholes, all sharing the same portfolio mechanics, stochastic arrivals, costs, and test period. We train a distributional Twin Delayed Deep Deterministic Policy Gradient (TD3) agent and evaluate it out of sample over 2018-2023. The agent trained on empirical data reduces Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) tail loss by 3.1% compared to delta hedging and outperforms every hedge-ratio rule chosen during the training period and every alternative training environment. The reduction reaches 8.9% in volatile and falling markets, but reverses to a cost of 7-10% in rising markets. Empirical training induces a state-dependent short net delta: the policy under-hedges negative-delta books, most strongly after prices have fallen. This tilt disappears with GBM training and is weaker with SABR or hybrid training. These findings suggest that exposure to historical market dynamics can materially change a tail-risk hedging policy, although the evidence rests on a single test path and the edge is regime-conditional.
Cyber-physical smart-grid detectors are typically treated as black boxes and validated exclusively on clean, temporally shuffled datasets, which risk overly optimistic performance claims. This work presents a multi-testbed evaluation study built around an interpretable, time-windowed fusion Random Forest, adopting the pessimistic result whenever evaluation protocols disagree. (i) On a public paired cyber-physical dataset, shuffled cross-validation is optimistic: macro-F1 falls from 0.96 to 0.88 +/- 0.06 under rolling-origin temporal evaluation. A topology-free graph convolutional network (GCN) serving as a control confirms that this lightweight model is competitive on these splits. (ii) The adaptive and adaptive-joint feature-space attacks, which are infeasible as realistic grid manipulations, degrade macro-F1 to 0.67 and 0.34, respectively. Adversarial training and randomized smoothing partially restore performance, and a physics-constrained evolution-strategy evasion on the IEEE 14-Bus testbed shows the same vulnerability pattern. (iii) On real IEC-104 traffic, the cyber view reliably catches structural attacks (recall of 0.87 to 0.98) but largely fails on semantic value manipulation (recall of 0.11 to 0.35). An observability taxonomy on the IEEE 14-Bus system reveals that stealthy false data injection defeats all three observation views. (iv) On a full AC weighted least-squares state-estimation testbed, a forecasting-aided temporal test is evaded by slow ramps precisely where a rate-invariant physics-manifold test sustains detection at a common 5% false-alarm target. A full end-to-end evaluation on IEEE 118-Bus confirms the ordering but bounds its strength: the manifold test detects every trial down to 0.05 degree/step and 0.48 at 0.02 degree/step, against 0.14 for the temporal test. All code and benchmarks are released.
This paper introduces COUPLED FLOW, a new neural operator learning framework for multi-physics PDE systems that captures the co-evolution of multiple physical processes by modeling their cross-process interactions. Unlike existing neural operator methods that primarily target single-physics settings, COUPLED FLOW employs a novel structure-constrained flow matching algorithm to learn process- specific mean velocity fields conditioned on the full multi-physics state. This enables fast and accurate one-step prediction of coupled PDE systems that would otherwise require expensive numerical simulations. A key challenge in training COUPLED FLOW however lies in sampling structure-constrained conditional flow interpolants that capture cross-process correlations and serve as training examples for flow matching. To address this challenge, we derive a multi-physics mean-flow consistency identity that characterizes cross-process interactions and defines the structure-constrained mean-flow matching loss. To provide informative training samples for flow matching with this loss, we develop a principled method for sampling correlated conditional interpolants based on posterior multi-output Gaus- sian processes, which capture richer cross-process correlations than the commonly used endpoint-conditioned linear interpolants. We also establish a theoretical re- sult showing that the Wasserstein-2 distance between the predicted and oracle PDE solution distributions is upper-bounded in terms of the structure-constrained flow matching loss and the smoothness of the learned flow. Experiments across diverse coupled PDE benchmarks demonstrate that COUPLED FLOW consistently outperforms existing state-of-the-art neural operators and generative PDE solvers.
Data transformation pipelines shape the training distribution in computer vision, but designing them is a computationally expensive problem. We investigate whether large language models can enable efficient discovery by synthesizing executable transformation programs outside predefined augmentation spaces. We compare nine strategies under a unified training protocol, including standard augmentation policies, brute-force search, direct code generation with two LLMs, and performance-guided generation using LLMs fine-tuned on accuracy-ordered transformation pairs. When the best candidates are retrained for 20 epochs, LLM-generated transformation programs lead on every dataset, reaching 0.8877 accuracy on CIFAR-10, 0.5825 on CIFAR-100, and 0.9588 on SVHN, surpassing brute-force search over 6,000 candidates. The best transform on CIFAR-10 and SVHN comes from a fine-tuned generator using 270 candidates, while the best on CIFAR-100 comes from an off-the-shelf generator using only 10. This needs 22x fewer candidate evaluations in the generation step and 600x fewer for off-the-shelf generations, relative to brute-force search. Beyond transformation discovery, we analyze the reliability of the reduced-budget evaluation commonly used for augmentation search. Correlating one-epoch selection scores with 20-epoch outcomes reveals strong, weak, and absent predictive relationships depending on the dataset and architecture, with correlations ranging from 0.756 to near zero. A positive control indicates that range restriction alone is unlikely to explain the low correlations. Our results indicate that semantic synthesis with code LLMs provides an efficient alternative to search-based transformation discovery and highlight the importance of validating evaluation fidelity when optimizing data transformations.
The field of mechanistic interpretability is well-suited to collaborative projects between mathematicians and AI researchers. This work describes one such project. We trained a small transformer to learn the language of the Coxeter group affine A2, best known as the symmetries of the tiling of the Euclidean plane by equilateral triangles. We then formulated and proved a word-theoretic conjecture about affine A2 after observing the attention patterns of the trained model.
Researchers increasingly estimate political behavior based on race and gender from voter files, where race is imputed from surnames and geography. This only works where surnames suggest group membership, an assumption violated where surnames follow norms around marriage. Imputation is therefore biased against women who adopt their husband's surname, especially those who racially inter-marry, an outcome itself endogenous to partisanship. Using six US states recording self-reported race, I show that imputation is less accurate for Asian and Hispanic women, particularly those sharing the surname of a partner of another race, who differ politically from other women of their race. This violates assumptions behind downstream inference approaches, which nearly double the gender gap in partisanship among Asian voters. I derive an expression showing the bias is largest where a group is small. Using maiden rather than marriage-adopted surnames in North Carolina raises accuracy up to fourfold for women married across racial lines. Recovering maiden surnames, or omitting the married surname, removes much of the bias. In a national replication of a study of gender gaps in turnout, the correction more than triples the gap among Asian voters. In Lebanon, where wives register in their husband's locality, the error enters through geography.
Existing evaluations of AI models on high-finance work focus on retrieving answers from financial documents and producing numerically correct outputs. Real private equity (PE) and investment banking (IB) work also depends on choosing between conflicting sources, making sound assumptions, and keeping every step auditable. We introduce DeepFinance, an ultra long-horizon benchmark of 21 end-to-end PE and IB tasks that take a human professional an average of 27.1 hours. Each task pairs a request with a data room averaging 19 files and is graded against an average of 84 expert-written rubric criteria covering output, workflow, and judgment. We evaluate 22 model configurations, each in its native agent harness. The best configuration, GPT-6 Astra with max reasoning, satisfies 57.6% of rubric criteria, and the top four configurations are not statistically distinguishable. Frontier models often calculate correctly from the wrong inputs and find decision-relevant evidence without acting on it.
Binary decision-making under uncertainty arises across a wide range of applications, including energy systems scheduling, transportation, and workforce planning. While machine learning has been increasingly applied to accelerate or replace mixed-integer solvers in such settings, existing approaches rely on predictive learning, training models to reproduce optimal decisions from labeled data, which lacks knowledge of counterfactual outcomes and provides no guarantees that the resulting decisions will be feasible. This limitation is further compounded under distributional shift, where policies trained on historical data may produce systematically infeasible decisions. We propose a prescriptive learning framework for binary decision-making that addresses both limitations. Rather than predicting optimal labels, the framework jointly optimizes over linear decision policies and feasible assignments across all training scenarios, allowing feasible alternatives and their operational performance to be considered directly during training. We further extend the framework to a distributionally robust chance-constrained formulation using a Wasserstein ambiguity set, which enforces feasibility with a prescribed probability under the worst-case distribution in the ambiguity set and enables a tunable trade-off between robustness and solution quality. We demonstrate the framework on two case studies, namely a unit commitment problem and a staff allocation problem. Out-of-sample experiments under test distributions that either match or differ from the training distribution show that the robust model is more conservative when the two distributions coincide, while under distributional shift it substantially reduces unmet demand and lowers total cost by up to 76.5% relative to classical predictive learning.
In Bangla, a main verb is often followed by one of a small set of vector verbs. These verbs lose their own meaning and add a shade of meaning instead, such as completion. For example, likhe phello means that someone finished writing, not that they wrote and threw something. The same two verbs can also describe two separate events, so only the context shows which meaning is meant. This makes compound verbs a hard test of how language models handle multiword expressions. We present BanglaCV-Probe, a benchmark of 17 vector verbs with 1,044 minimal pairs, 204 entailment items and 197 pairs of correct and incorrect combinations, all checked by native speakers. We test 26 models (encoders, LLMs and translation systems) on four skills: telling the two meanings apart internally, understanding what a vector adds, preferring correct combinations and keeping the vector's meaning in translation. Probes on five encoders tell the two meanings apart and still reach up to 93% accuracy when trained on pairs without surface cues. Prompted models rarely use this knowledge. Entailment accuracy stays between 59% and 81%. Several LLMs answer Yes or No to almost every item, and nine of ten models miss that someone who ate up the rice left none. Most instruction-tuned LLMs translate vectors literally in 15-20% of vector sentences and in up to 55% for mora (die). On correct combinations, a small Bangla-only model (88%) matches BLOOM-7B1 (87%) and both beat Qwen2.5-7B (74%). Data and code: https://github.com/ashuvo25/Pole_OR_Vector
Fixed prompt-based language models face challenges in open-domain conversations, where versatile topics require different expert advice or demonstrations to maximize their universal performance. Motivated by the dynamic prompt studies in language generation, we extract different chatting strategies from varied forms of text corpus, which steer the language model to different styles based on human principles. We design and deploy a conversational companion called SCorPion, which uses GraphRAG to extract and summarize the knowledge graph globally, yield community-summarized strategies, and produce query-focused optimal strategies. SCorPion has strategic thinking, yields personified and stylized responses, and can be controlled by explicit factors. Code and further results can be found in https://bachozean.github.io/scorpion-page/.
Detectors of AI-generated text are usually tuned and tested on passages of several hundred tokens, yet many real cases are short. We study score-based detection as a function of passage length. We give a closed form for how the false-positive rate of a threshold set on long text changes as length falls, and a formula for the number of tokens a detector needs to reach a target true-positive rate. We calibrate thresholds within length bins with conformal p-values, and we add a bin-level rule that abstains when the detector cannot be informative at that length. On synthetic scores the formulas agree with simulation, and binned calibration holds the false-positive rate at its nominal value at every length. On three zero-shot detectors (log-likelihood, log-rank, Binoculars), three corpora and two open-weight generators, binned calibration gives a mean false-positive rate of 5.0% in every detector-length cell from 10 to 200 tokens, averaged over 300 random document-level resplits. A single threshold set at 200 tokens gives 29% for Binoculars at 10 tokens and about 1% for log-likelihood, as the closed form predicts. No detector reaches an 80% true-positive rate, and the best, Binoculars at 200 tokens, reaches 59%, so the rule abstains in every cell at that floor and releases only the 200-token bins at floors of 0.3 and 0.5.
Real-world deployment of federated learning (FL) requires resilience against adversarial clients and data privacy. Byzantine fault captures the worst-case behavior of adversarial clients, while differential privacy (DP) provides statistical guarantees against privacy loss. In particular, user-level DP guards a client's entire contribution and provides more realistic protection against information leakage. Despite intensive efforts, the minimax-optimal convergence bound of Byzantine-resilient FL with user-level DP remains open. We establish an information-theoretic lower bound for any Byzantine-resilient empirical risk minimization problem under user-level DP and heterogeneous clients. We propose ByzULDP, a central DP algorithm featuring a two-level momentum across the client and server. Client-side momentum mitigates stochastic gradient variance during robust aggregation. Unlike the fault-free case, naively combining non-linear Byzantine-resilient aggregation with central DP noise can be insufficient to guarantee convergence to a bounded neighborhood of a stationary point. Our key contribution is a server-side momentum that leverages a property specific to user-level DP, where privacy sensitivity depends on how client updates are constructed, to empower convergence. ByzULDP achieves the order-optimal convergence bound for strongly-convex objectives, with vanishing error terms decaying at the optimal O(1/T) and O(1/{T}) rates for strongly-convex and non-convex objectives, respectively. We corroborate our analysis with numerical experiments on real-world datasets across diverse privacy budgets.
Standard ensemble methods can improve robustness by mitigating individual model stochasticity, but they frequently fail to generalize beyond the training distribution, leaving systems vulnerable to out-of-distribution (OOD) data. We introduce the Robust Satisficing Ensemble (RSE), a scalable probabilistic aggregation framework designed to secure model combinations by minimizing their fragility against distributional changes. By bridging a robust satisficing objective with a quadratic risk surrogate, RSE derives an analytical inner adversary. This fundamental reformulation enables highly efficient weight updates without the computational bottleneck of standard minimax optimization, crucially decoupling optimization complexity from sample size to scale effectively to large datasets. In particular, we prove a geometrically decaying truncation error for the fragility approximation via Lagrange-Burmann expansion and establish stationarity guarantees for RSE. We evaluate RSE across a comprehensive spectrum of distribution shifts, including adversarial label shift (SST-5, TREC), natural subpopulation and temporal shifts (CivilComments, HuffPost). Our results demonstrate that RSE consistently outperforms strong robust baselines, including GroupDRO, IRM, and SRM. These findings establish RSE as a practical, theoretically grounded safeguard for reliable model aggregation in dynamic environments.
