Anthropic
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AI compute provider Nscale is looking for $3.5B in pre-IPO financing
Nscale, which recently struck a $45 billion deal with Anthropic, is in talks to raise additional funds in anticipation of an upcoming IPO.
Necessary or Sufficient? Evaluating LLM Explanations With Behavioural Evidence
LLM decision components that can operate within agent workflows often produce action-relevant recommendations or judgements together with explanations. Operators may use the named factors to monitor a system, diagnose errors, or decide when to escalate an output. Such use assumes that the explanations agree with the component's observable decision behaviour. We test two interpretations of the named factors: necessity, meaning that changing a factor would change the output, and sufficiency, meaning that retaining it while removing other changeable information would preserve the output. We evaluate these interpretations in two synthetic use cases: recommending advisors to clients and judging prompts for harmfulness or risk. Models return an output and the top three factors that most influenced it. Controlled black-box interventions estimate a necessity score for each factor by measuring how often changing it changes the output, and a sufficiency score by measuring how often retaining it preserves the output. Across eight models from the Claude, GPT, and Gemini families, the mean Spearman correlations between the cited ranking and the necessity and sufficiency scores are 0.349 and 0.354 for advisor recommendation, and 0.431 and 0.580 for prompt monitoring. Furthermore, an uncited factor scores above the lowest-scoring cited factor in 57.6% of advisor responses under necessity and 58.1% under sufficiency; the corresponding prompt-monitoring rates are 25.8% and 8.9%. The cited top three contain useful information but do not reliably identify the three factors with the strongest measured influence under necessity or sufficiency. The framework provides a black-box reliability check for explanations used in agent oversight while remaining scoped to individual LLM decisions.
Designing lifecycle policies for AgentCore memory
Long-running AI agents accumulate outdated memories that degrade quality and create compliance risk. Learn how to design memory lifecycle policies for Amazon Bedrock AgentCore: scoring, consolidating, and pruning agent memories on a nightly AWS Step Functions workflow, with a deployable AWS CDK stack.
How to Speculate about Uncertainty in Agentic Coding? A Draft-Model Gate Method
LLM agents deployed for software engineering fail expensively: they act confidently wrong, and bad actions are recognized only after costly execution and retry. We present Speculative Uncertainty (SU), a method that recovers a predictive failure signal for a black-box agent from its output tokens alone, with no access to logits, weights, activations, or repeated sampling. Inverting speculative decoding, a small open-weight draft model scores the agent's already-generated trajectory in a single forward pass. From these speculative cross-likelihoods we extract phase-aware features by separating the reasoning and action spans, and calibrate them against a verifiable objective. SU produces a failure-likelihood score that any downstream policy, such as routing, human intervention, or extra test-time compute, can consume directly. To show the signal is actionable, we instantiate one such policy, a pre-execution veto gate, on software engineering agents Qwen3-Coder-480B and closed-source Claude 3.5 Sonnet, cutting execution error rate by 6-8 percentage points and token cost by 14-19% in deployment, transferring to out-of-distribution benchmarks without retraining, and generalizing across agent models.
Substrate-Aware AI Agents: Execution Context as a First-Class Input
Autonomous AI agents increasingly select actions in environments whose memory, execution-time, runtime, compute, and operational constraints determine what counts as a suitable plan. We call the absence of this execution context from an agent's planning state substrate blindness. We test this general proposition through numerical code generation, where selected implementation choices and operational consequences are directly observable. Three frontier model configurations--Anthropic Claude Opus 5, OpenAI GPT-5.6-Sol, and Google Gemini 3.7 Flash--generate code for a high-dimensional pairwise Euclidean-distance task either from the task alone or with a 128 MB RAM and 10.0 s wall-time contract. Contract disclosure reduced measured peak process memory in 13 of 14 executable index-aligned task-only versus contract-disclosed comparisons and reduced mean wall time in all three cohorts, making execution up to 3.1x faster. Across the audited corpus, disclosure produced structural code changes including bounded blocking, float32 retention, upper-triangle traversal, and in-place or memory-mapped buffers. At a tighter 96 MB contract, independently sampled contract-disclosed cohorts achieved correct-and-within-budget outcomes of 4/5 for Claude Opus 5, 5/5 for GPT-5.6-Sol, and 3/5 for Gemini 3.7 Flash, compared with task-only outcomes of 0/5, 1/5, and 0/5; cohort mean MaxRSS and wall time were 49-74% and 35-64% lower than their task-only references. These results establish a controlled proof of concept for substrate-aware agent planning: a minimal execution contract induces proactive structural adaptation in generated programs, shifting computation away from unconstrained allocations and substantially improving observed resource-time profiles before execution.
Can Large Language Models Anticipate Behavioral Responses to Social Policies? A Case of Pension Enrollment Prediction among China's Flexible Workers
Assessing the impacts of social policy changes is a widely acknowledged challenge for policymakers. Econometric methods can be unreliable when extrapolating to hypothetical scenarios, while field pilot programs are highly costly. In this paper, we propose using large language models (LLMs) as policy-assessment tools adapted from general-purpose models. We present FlexPension-LLM, the first domain-specialized large language model for a hierarchical pension-enrollment prediction task among flexible workers in China, and introduce DKI-RDistill, which injects policy-grounded cues into the prompt, including Probit-derived marginal effects and hukou-province pension rules. The method then uses LoRA/SFT to distill rationale-augmented supervision into an open-weight MoE student, with teacher errors corrected by regenerating those cases under ground-truth labels. On a CHFS 2019 blind split, FlexPension-LLM achieves 0.9316 Composite F1, surpassing its Claude Sonnet 4.5 teacher and 15 of 17 baselines, and is statistically indistinguishable from Claude Opus 4.6. Across four external surveys, it averages 0.7549 Composite F1 and shows the narrowest performance range among the strongest systems. Component analysis shows that gains come mainly from policy-grounded cue injection and error-filtered supervision, while rationales provide decision traces that can be checked against policy rules.